# How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164 "2020-01-29T15:23:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/242 "2020-02-27T00:05:09Z")
We’re saved! VP Pence has been placed in charge of our National Response to the virus! Pray, pray, pray the fever away. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/243 "2020-02-27T00:07:58Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > This is substantially more dangerous than the flu. So not only will you need a very large number of additional hospital beds, you will need a very large number of additional ICU beds. True. I still don’t think it will overwhelm the system. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/244 "2020-02-27T01:25:57Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > As has been stated above, most notably by \*\* DSeid\*\*, those are not “death rates of those exposed”, or even of infected. They are death rates of those sick enough to seek medical help (or perhaps sick enough to not avoid medical help, in China). The difference between those two numbers appears to be the burning question at this point. This. I heard on NPR earlier today that otherwise-healthy children don’t seem to get an active infection, which could be more or less dangerous, depending on your viewpoint. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/245 "2020-02-27T01:45:34Z")
I’m sure the odds are very low, but what are the chances that it could mutate in such a way that the incubation period remains high (14+ days), but the virus becomes more virulent and lethal? To me, this would be a worst case scenario by which it kills off a large segment of the population before it runs out of hosts. I acknowledge this might be a dumb question, since I’m somewhat ignorant about viruses, mutations, etc. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/246 "2020-02-27T02:13:28Z")
[Don’t worry, Mike Pence will protect us](https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-pence-15539e01-b31e-45ba-98a3-caf87f5edf82.html). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/247 "2020-02-27T02:33:14Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > I am assuming it will spread more widely, much more widely than has happened in China. Not all countries will have the inclination or the means to lock down their populations. You are of the belief that the lock down stopped the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei and thus kept the actual infection rate much much lower than it will be everywhere else in the world. Timing does not fit. See the timeline here remember incubation period and thus lag time between exposure and symptom onset. The lock down of Wuhan and other cities occurred right about the same time as there was a peak of new symptoms onset in the confirmed cases which then in that timeline drops a week or more _before_ any significant impact of the lock down would be seen. The bug had been out there in the community with some of those who became confirmed cases having been symptomatic back in early December. By mid January there were hundreds of those who later sought care and were confirmed out and about across the region symptomatic. This germ is quite contagious. In a densely populated community for well over a month. It had already spread. If you do believe that the lock down was effective, what happens when it is eventually eased? Still a bunch of previously uninfected in that case with the germ still in circulation. Should they stay on lock down forever? > [@PastTense](#): > > This is substantially more dangerous than the flu. … Given that the mortality rate per infected case is still an unknown that is not something that can be stated as fact. Unless one believes that the lock down was a very effective tactic, so effective that it stopped the exposure to uninfected people _even before_ it was put in place, then the excess mortality rate from infections in Hubei is much less than seasonal influenza usually is. > [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > Has there ever been a usable vaccine for a coronavirus caused disease? … No. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/248 "2020-02-27T03:30:01Z")
Oops Forgot link. [Timeline here.](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert) ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/249 "2020-02-27T06:48:15Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > I also heard earlier today that a number of people are currently housed in the Biocontainment Unit at the University of Nebraska, the same one where 3 Ebola patients were treated in 2014 (and they sent two of them home 🙂 ). Two are being treated in isolation and the others are in quarantine, and they’ve used it for other quarantines in the meantime. > > Here’s a 25-minute video they made when it opened. It’s worth a view, and there’s an underlying theme that they were hoping they would never need to use it. > > [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a68NdXDk9Tk&t=284s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a68NdXDk9Tk&t=284s) > > More than once, administration wanted this unit to open up because the ICU was full, and they refused because they said that’s all they wanted to use it for, and even transferred patients rather than house them there. That’s dedication. Replying to myself: I told this story and posted this link on my Facebook page, and one of my FBFs, who is an ICU nurse in Winnipeg, said that her own hospital has such a unit, also designated only for things like this, and she is one of the nurses who has trained to work there, although she’s not at the top of the list to do it. It was originally a burn unit but didn’t meet current standards for that, so they remodeled it into this. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 9:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/250 "2020-02-27T09:28:16Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > We’re saved! VP Pence has been placed in charge of our National Response to the virus! _::: looks at Pence’s record on public health as governor of Indiana :::_ We’re doomed. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/251 "2020-02-27T09:29:19Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > True. I still don’t think it will overwhelm the system. Wuhan might have something to say about that… I _hope_ it doesn’t overwhelm our system, but I recognize the possibility that it could. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/252 "2020-02-27T12:28:08Z")
This may be of interest: [Japanese woman confirmed as coronavirus case for second time, weeks after initial recovery](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan/japanese-woman-confirmed-as-coronavirus-case-for-second-time-weeks-after-initial-recovery-idUSKCN20L0BI) FTA: > [@](#): > > The woman, a resident of Osaka, in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains, the prefectural government said in a statement, describing her as being in her forties. She first tested positive in late January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on Feb. 1, according to the statement. > > Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said in parliament the central government would need to review patient lists and keep tabs on the condition of those previously discharged, as health experts analyzed the implications of testing positive for the virus after an initial recovery. > > “Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Philip Tierno Jr., Professor of Microbiology and Pathology at NYU School of Medicine. > > Tierno said much remains unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease appears to go away before recurring. There is a lot we don’t know about this virus and the disease it causes. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/253 "2020-02-27T13:53:47Z")
Japan just closed schools for a month. > **[Japan to close schools nationwide to control spread of coronavirus](https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/japan-to-close-schools-nationwide-to-control-spread-of-virus/)** > > Japan now has more than 890 cases of the coronavirus, including 705 from a quarantined cruise ship. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/254 "2020-02-27T15:24:41Z")
[Another little](https://www.researchsquare.com/article/d147b529-677c-40d0-bde3-9b6a4b444b56/v1) bit to illustrate how using a hospitalized population to extrapolate broadly could give a very skewed perception of case fatality rate. > [@](#): > > This study included patients with respiratory symptoms who were seen in the emergency department or hospitalized. HCoV was found in 133 patients (1.6%) of the 8,071 tested for respiratory viruses using multiplex PCR. The 30-day mortality rate of patients with HCoV infection was 22.7% for HCoV 229E and 11.6% for HCoV OC43. Dang. Based on this sort of look, similar to the look we have with COVID-19, case fatality rates of 22.7 and 11.6% for these HCoVs!!! Those two HCoVs are very contagious bugs too! Yet there were no alarm bells and lock downs to these two HCoVs … which are two of the germs that are frequent causes of the common cold and other minor viral illnesses. But if the only view of illness caused by these two HCoVs was the view of looking at those in the ED or hospitalized with respiratory symptoms, the view we essentially have of the HCoV-SARS-2, the germ of COVID-19, it would have been almost as rational of a decision. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/255 "2020-02-27T15:33:08Z")
I for one, am longer concerned about this coronavirus. The President’s words, like some unguent, soothing, were a balm that banished fear from my panicked brain. > [@The President of the United States of America](#): > > “We have 15 people infected but not too bad, but there are only 9 that are serious but they are from Japan we felt we had to bring over, we didn’t really have to, but they are citizens and Congress…Congress gave us too much money, but we will take it, not as much for the Wall…and the 15 patients are doing great…China, China is doing a great job just like India, but everything is ok, many people say we couldn’t get it done, but the Coronavirus is in good shape, I mean, the 15 people are in good shape, because we are great” God bless you, Mr. President. ---
**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/256 "2020-02-27T16:38:16Z")
Just got off a flight from Boston Logan to Gatwick, is guess 2/3rd full. See what happens when we fly into Bologna next week. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/257 "2020-02-27T17:26:23Z")
Let’s just rebrand this thing. Coronavirus is too silly… makes it seem like “beer flu”. COVID-19 is kinda scary, but boring. Me? I propose a simple modification: **Captain Trumps** … you’re welcome. ---
**Author:** ![Asuka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@Asuka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asuka)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/258 "2020-02-27T17:37:56Z")
I miss the halcyon days of last month where people were legitimately afraid Iran was going to nuke the United States and that would cause Trump to act “disproportionately” ---
**Author:** ![Modesty\_Blaise](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/77aa72/32.png) [@Modesty\_Blaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Modesty_Blaise)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/259 "2020-02-27T17:57:32Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Let’s just rebrand this thing. Coronavirus is too silly… makes it seem like “beer flu”. COVID-19 is kinda scary, but boring. Me? I propose a simple modification: > **Captain Trumps** > … you’re welcome. PERFECT! 😃 Man, this whole thing has been playing out like Stephen King’s envisioned apocalypse. It’s freaking me out. It’s been forever since I read The Stand. How long start to finish did it take to kill off 90 something percent of the world’s population? A few months? But don’t worry! Captain Trumps to the rescue! ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/260 "2020-02-27T18:19:55Z")
Not exactly sure how to ask this question or if it is even relevant. Each tie someone is infected a new colony starts. How many generations of colonies does it take for a virus to mutate itself into a weaker version of itself. It would seem that it could go a million different directions with each new colony being isolated from the others?? ---
**Author:** ![Surreal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/eada6e/32.png) [@Surreal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Surreal)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/261 "2020-02-27T19:59:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > \*\*Surreal \*\*and **Grey Ghost** - you are both confusing “confirmed case fatality rate” with “infection mortality rate”. The two are very very very very different things. > > “Confirmed case fatality” is a subset of those who are notably sick - those who are sick enough to have gotten tested with the very limited resource of testing kits. Those who are notably sick are a subset of those who infected. Good point, I’ll account for that. I think it’s reasonable to assume that around 60% of the population will contract the virus based on Marc Lipsitch’s estimates based on previous pandemics. Using the data from the Chinese CDC ([https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130)) we can assume around 19% of those cases will be severe enough to require hospitalization, and among those cases that are severe enough to require hospitalization around 2.3% will die. This works out to around 850,000 deaths in the US and 20 million deaths worldwide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=14)