# How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164 "2020-01-29T15:23:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/262 "2020-02-27T20:12:10Z")
> [@Modesty\_Blaise](#): > > PERFECT! šŸ˜ƒ > > Man, this whole thing has been playing out like Stephen Kingā€™s envisioned apocalypse. Itā€™s freaking me out. Itā€™s been forever since I read The Stand. How long start to finish did it take to kill off 90 something percent of the worldā€™s population? A few months? > > But donā€™t worry! Captain Trumps to the rescue! Except that Captain trips had a 99% kill rate. Captain Trumps has about a 99% survival rate. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/263 "2020-02-27T22:02:17Z")
Captain Trumps is loose in California because of poor coordination with the Trump administration and the CDC, according to a _whistleblower_ complaint: > **[U.S. Health Workers Responding to Coronavirus Lacked Training and Protective...](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/coronavirus-us-whistleblower.html#click=https://t.co/Rl0xvqjN22)** > > Team members were not properly trained, lacked necessary gear and moved freely around and off military bases where Americans were quarantined, a complaint says. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/264 "2020-02-27T22:07:10Z")
Chris Hayes summarizes: > [@](#): > > So hereā€™s what appears to be chain of events: > > The Trump administration repatriated infected Americans over the objections of the CDC. > > HHS then sent federal workers to interact with the infected population without adequate training or protection > > Then those workers went out into the public with no monitoring or testing regime in place. > > And now the first US-contracted case has appeared right near one of the airforce bases where this all happened. > > When someone at HHS raised alarms about all this s/he was criticized for hurting morale and then ordered to another position or be fired. > > This is real real real bad. **THE WHISTLEBLOWER WAS PUNISHED, GUYS! SOMEONE SAYING ā€˜THIS ISNā€™T THE CORRECT BIOHAZARD PROCEDUREā€™ WAS PUNISHED.** ā€¦ is this in the Pit, yet? ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/265 "2020-02-27T22:24:08Z")
Why are you shocked? I mean, yes, Iā€™m appalled and horrified and madā€¦ but not surprised. Or shocked. Trump punishes the messanger and never actually considers the problem. Then he hires someone who will tell him what he wants to hear regardless of whether or not that reflects actual reality. Weā€™ve seen this over and over. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/266 "2020-02-27T22:40:07Z")
Just FYI, San Antonio got a number of the Captain Trumps patients as well, using the same procedures. I texted the Mayor about the new reportingā€¦ hope I didnā€™t ruin his day. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/267 "2020-02-27T22:43:53Z")
My company just put a moratorium on all plane travel, international and domestic. I donā€™t expect weā€™ll be alone on this. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/268 "2020-02-27T22:53:41Z")
My shares of Alpha Pro Tech have been skyrocketing. If they keep going up, Iā€™m looking at potentially a pretty nice chunk of change. I bought last week when the shares were 6 to 7 dollars. Now itā€™s trading at $29.80. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/269 "2020-02-27T22:53:52Z")
ā€¦ double postā€¦ ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/270 "2020-02-27T22:59:00Z")
I plan to fly from Chicago to (whatever airport serves Conneticut) in October. Trump, genius, says this will blow over in the spring. Iā€™m good then, right? ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2020, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/271 "2020-02-27T23:46:19Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Trump, genius, says this will blow over in the spring. Iā€™m good then, right? If it doesnā€™t blow over, heā€™ll bring out his Sharpie. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/272 "2020-02-28T01:12:05Z")
> [@Surreal](#): > > Good point, Iā€™ll account for that. > > I think itā€™s reasonable to assume that around 60% of the population will contract the virus based on Marc Lipsitchā€™s estimates based on previous pandemics. Using the data from the Chinese CDC ([The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Chinaā€”Summary of a China CDC Report](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130)) we can assume around 19% of those cases will be severe enough to require hospitalization, and among those cases that are severe enough to require hospitalization around 2.3% will die. > > This works out to around 850,000 deaths in the US and 20 million deaths worldwide. There are only somewhat over 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S. and about 2/3 are normally occupied. Assuming hospitalization lasts one to two weeks how do you expect there will be enough hospital beds availableā€“and notice a significant number will need to be ICU beds? ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/273 "2020-02-28T01:37:40Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > There are only somewhat over 900,000 hospital beds in the U.S. and about 2/3 are normally occupied. Assuming hospitalization lasts one to two weeks how do you expect there will be enough hospital beds availableā€“and notice a significant number will need to be ICU beds? 2/3 occupied? In Toronto (and I suspect in much of the country), occupancy rates are seldom below 95 percent (and often over 100 percent, i.e. hallway medicine). I suppose weā€™ll use school gymnasiums (theyā€™ll be closed anyway) and local hockey rinks. I also expect that many healthcare workers will get infected making for a greater workload for those remaining well (at least to that point). And if SARS experience is anything to go by, some will overstate their ā€˜symptomsā€™ in order to fail screening and be turned away from work. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/274 "2020-02-28T03:14:07Z")
More fun newsā€“[you can be reinfected after having it once](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected). > [@eenerms](#): > > See what happens when we fly into Bologna next week. It will probably be quite messy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/275 "2020-02-28T04:33:10Z")
> [@Surreal](#): > > Good point, Iā€™ll account for that. ā€¦ It is very entertaining, cute even, to see you say that and then in the very next breath not do so! šŸ™‚ Meanwhile some interesting data to throw into the mix as the real infection mortality rate is figured out. Currently outside of Hubei the confirmed case mortality rate (still far overweighted to testing the very sickest and not identifying the unknown number that are asymptomatic to moderately symptomatic with infections) is 176 deaths worldwide out of 17428 identified cases: 1%. And a more interesting factoid out of [a NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic.html?algo=identity&fellback=false&imp_id=72123403&imp_id=942291897&action=click&module=Science%20%20Technology&pgtype=Homepage) > [@](#): > > In February, Germany flew 126 people home from the Wuhan area. Ten passengers were segregated from the others, because they didnā€™t feel well or thought they had been exposed to the coronavirus. But everyone was offered testing. > > The 10 isolated patients tested negative, but two people ā€” who felt fine ā€” surprised scientists by testing positive. They were hospitalized, monitored and tested repeatedly. > > While one developed a mild rash and slightly sore throat, neither became ill. Now small n but still that would be consistent with roughly 2% of the population being asymptomatically or minimally symptomatically infected in the Wuhan area (i.e. Hubei) ā€¦ 1.2 million cases if the number is in fact that low. If THAT is all there is in that community (and is seems _very_ low to me), and the reported death rate is reasonably accurate, then the true infection mortality rate is 0.2%. Not far off from the mortality rate in the [2018-19 influenza season in the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html)(0.1%) and the [2017-18 season](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm) (0.14%). About 14% of the United States population was infected with influenza in the 2017-18 season. Interpret how you will. Surge capacity for pandemic illness is a real problem to be sure. It is actually true that [the United States ranks best prepared in the world for pandemic preparedness](https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf) it is only because everyone else does so poorly. > [@](#): > > no country is fully > prepared for epidemics or pandemics and all > countries have gaps to address. Collectively, > international preparedness is quite weak. The average overall GHS Index score among all 195 countries > assessed is 40.2 of a possible score of 100. Among > the 60 high-income countries, the average GHS Index > score is 51.9. Additionally, 116 high- and middle-income > countries do not score above 50. ā€¦ > > ā€¦ Most countries (67%) score in the bottom tier for health > system indicators, including indicators related to healthcare > workforce, access to healthcare, availability of equipment for healthcare workers, and capability to treat the > sick. The average GHS Index score for the health systems > category is 26.4. When we DO get a pandemic that significantly exceeds a bad influenza season much of the world will be not able to handle it unless they change current systems. As to the Osaka woman - one, it is unclear yet if she was reinfected or if the disease was biphasic; two her symptoms have apparently been mild (sore throat and chest pain). ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/276 "2020-02-28T17:11:02Z")
I wonder how the extreme cost of testing in the US will help this spread - the man in Florida who was worried about exposure and got tested ended up being charged over $3000 for testing, of which $1400 was not covered by insurance. I really donā€™t think food service workers are going to drop $1400-$3200 plus time off from work if theyā€™re worried they have an infection, so will continue to go go in and make/serve food to people until they are physically unable to work. > **[Getting treated for coronavirus could cost more than $3,000 ā€” and it might...](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-treatment-costs-americans-health-care-broke-2020-2)** > > A US resident checked into a hospital for the flu after a China work trip. He didn't have coronavirus, but he did end up with a $3,200 medical bill. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/277 "2020-02-28T17:12:24Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > More fun newsā€“[you can be reinfected after having it once](https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/484942-japan-confirms-first-case-of-person-reinfected). I donā€™t think itā€™s yet established whether this is an aspect of COVID, an artifact of testing, or a hitch in the individual patientsā€™ immune reactions. [This Reuters article covers the possibilities](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124) through several patient case studies. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/278 "2020-02-28T20:35:28Z")
I subscribe to HARO (Help a Reporter Out) which is a place where people writing a story ask for sources. It is interesting in tracking what people are writing about. This afternoon half the queries in the health section were virus related, including this one: > [@HARO](#): > > CORONAVIRUS - How can a boutique fitness studio best deal with potential coronavirus outbreak. (Anonymous) Which says nothing about medical issues, but maybe something about the psychology of the public. Which is going to impact the economy. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/279 "2020-02-28T20:55:28Z")
[Calling for a tax cut to stop a virus _may_ be Peak GOP.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/28/trump-coronavirus-tax-cuts/) ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/280 "2020-02-28T21:44:38Z")
> [@me](#): > > ā€¦ it requires no great leap of faith to imagine that the death rate for those over age 60 will be several percent. > [@DSeid](#): > > In my opinion a huge leap of imagination is required to think that. FWIW, two articles released by the NEJM today (both free access) cite an _overall_ mortality rate of ā€œ[around one percent](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762?query=RP)ā€ and ā€œ[1.4 percent](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032?query=RP)ā€, respectively. And since no one is claiming that people over age 60 do better than average, Iā€™d say itā€™s looking pretty good that ā€œthe death rate for those over age 60 will be several percent.ā€ ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/281 "2020-02-28T22:33:21Z")
OTOH Dr. Drew is saying this is being overhyped by the press [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY) Then again later he still says its being overhyped while other medical concerns are not getting attention. [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39A7Tr-H29E) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=15)