# How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164 "2020-01-29T15:23:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/282 "2020-02-28T22:36:58Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > FWIW, two articles released by the NEJM today (both free access) cite an _overall_ mortality rate of “[around one percent](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762?query=RP)” and “[1.4 percent](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032?query=RP)”, respectively. > > And since no one is claiming that people over age 60 do better than average, I’d say it’s looking pretty good that “the death rate for those over age 60 will be several percent.” And another which says that “…If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%” [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/283 "2020-02-28T22:44:40Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > OTOH Dr. Drew is saying this is being overhyped by the press [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWY0oZV51VY) > > Then again later he still says its being overhyped while other medical concerns are not getting attention. [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39A7Tr-H29E) Dr Drew is an idiot. However, I am glad an addiction specialist is finally working with Limbaugh. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/284 "2020-02-28T23:09:00Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > And another which says that “…If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%” > > [https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387) I had not seen that, thanks. About the rates, we will see . . . ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/285 "2020-02-28T23:16:40Z")
Now YOU (and the Gates Foundation writer of that opinion piece) definitely _know_ better than to confuse current confirmed case fatality rate with infection mortality rate. Now the purpose of the opinion piece is to sell the importance of wealthier countries donating to low- and middle-income countries out of self-interest, so spinning the worse number as something “we should assume it will be until we know otherwise” is maybe excusable. The second link, an actual article, _recognizes_ that since they are looking only at the “7736 patients with Covid-19 who **had been hospitalized** at 552 sites” and “patients who were **mildly ill** and who did not seek medical attention were **not included** in our study”, they may (ya think?) be only looking at “\*\*the more severe end \*\*of Covid-19”. (Bolding mine.) Remember that looking only at those who show up to ED and get hospitalized with respiratory symptoms one finds two of established HCoVs that are mainly thought of as causing common colds and sore throats to have case fatality rates of about 23 and 12%! Recognize that in the swine flu case the initial numbers underestimated the true infections numbers (and thus the fatality rate) by **two to three orders of magnitude**. Stop holding up the tail of an elephant and concluding you have a very long rope. We have very few samples of testing complete populations and seeing how many are infected what fraction of those are ill or die. The prison population numbers that I [posted about](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=22163248&postcount=7) and linked to your “professional mor(t)ality” thread is one such … captive … population. Prisoners tend in general to have co-morbid health conditions more than the general population and of course do not include kids (influenza rates do). In Shandong prisons 2,077 inmates and prison workers tested and about 10% (200 prisoners and 7 guards) infected. No report of how many completely asymptomatic. No deaths. Of all Chinese prisons 555 confirmed infections. No deaths. So far mortality rate in that captive population **zero**. 4 critically ill. One who was seriously ill recovered and eleven others who were ill recovered already Will one or two of the four critically ill die? Maybe. Let’s imagine two. If so then infection mortality rate in that small population is 0.3%. One and it is 0.15%. Not far off from the 0.2% infection mortality that a mere 2% subclinical or asymptomatic infection rate in Hubei leads us to. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/286 "2020-02-28T23:18:00Z")
BTW the discussion section of your second cite also points out that they are missing the mild or asymptomatic cases which didn’t come in. Also of interest, current or former smokers make up 33% of the ventilator/icu/death endpoint group, but only 13% of the non endpoint group. ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2020, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/287 "2020-02-28T23:24:45Z")
I hope you are both correct. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/288 "2020-02-29T03:27:34Z")
Captain Trumps in Oregon: > ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/289 "2020-02-29T07:38:44Z")
With now two community-sourced infections in the USA, I expect we will see it spread throughout. The Trump administration is responding as I feared they would, with more concern for control of information than for loss of life. I put in our regular grocery order today, and included a few cans of chicken soup, saltines, and a few bottles of mango gatorade, just in case we all get sick at once. That’s about all I feel is necessary, and what I will generally keep on hand anyway. This just made me notice that the “barf box” was empty. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/290 "2020-02-29T07:52:17Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > With now two community-sourced infections in the USA, I expect we will see it spread throughout. The Trump administration is responding as I feared they would, with more concern for control of information than for loss of life. > > I put in our regular grocery order today, and included a few cans of chicken soup, saltines, and a few bottles of mango gatorade, just in case we all get sick at once. That’s about all I feel is necessary, and what I will generally keep on hand anyway. This just made me notice that the “barf box” was empty. You have a barf box? I’ve heard of an [ass box](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ySd-MYoOFo4). ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 9:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/291 "2020-02-29T09:29:48Z")
As a requested update on my personal situation; I am now back in my home town of Shanghai. Transport was smooth. At the airport, there were extra forms to fill out and of course a temperature check. But, given that it was noticeably quieter than it would have been prior to all this, overall it was a breeze. Trains all running as normal, but virtually no passengers and immaculately clean (the Shanghai subway was not dirty in the first place, but now it looks like the whole thing just came out of the dishwasher. Genuinely looks steam cleaned as well as sterilized). One change since I was out: all entry and exit to all residential blocks is controlled by passes (as well as the temperature check). I had heard that visitors from outside of Shanghai would be issued a temporary pass that would not permit exit for 2 weeks. Quarantined to the housing block. However, when I went to the residents’ management office to get my pass, they just gave me a regular pass. I asked whether I should have been given a temporary pass (:smack: sometimes when speaking in a second language you are too focused on whether you are _able_ to say something, and not whether you _should_), but they said no need since I was arriving from somewhere safe. I think I got lucky, in that the boss of the office, who is normally there, was not present. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/292 "2020-02-29T10:40:05Z")
Also, (missed edit window) The front gate of the residential block is quite a busy area now, since people are increasingly reliant on fast food, grocery and general shopping deliveries, but delivery guys are not allowed in. So shelving has been installed, with pigeonholes. There is a constant flow of delivery men leaving boxes and people collecting them. So anyway, I can come and go as I please, but cannot invite people in to my home, and nor can anyone else. It’s interesting to speculate on what degree these rules will be relaxed after the crisis (of course you’ll be able to have friends round, but I hope you won’t need to sign them in). ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/293 "2020-02-29T11:11:15Z")
I’m concerned about my Brother, as he has cancer & may have a damaged immune system. I am \*\*also concerned \*\*that this may result in a shortage of chemicals for water treatment plants–re disruptions in the supply chains. That could have more serious issues. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/294 "2020-02-29T11:31:09Z")
I did a review of my home disaster prep (you know - tornadoes, blizzards, meteor strikes, zombie apocalypse - all the usual concerns). Going to lay in a two-week emergency supply of water, other than that I should be good for a two week hibernation. If the water situation gets really bad around here I could go to the old homestead, start up the well pump, and take water out of the ground… assuming I’m allowed to go five miles down the road. Hmm… yep, reserve drinking water not a bad idea. Not a bad idea at any time - not more than a month after I moved into this place we had a water main break that left my building waterless for 14 hours and on a boil order for a weekend. Having a jug of potable water available was reassuring if nothing else. But I wish people could avoid panic buying. I understand why they do it, I just wish we could all be a bit more rational under these circumstances. But… honestly… prepping for more than two weeks of quarantine in your home would be excessive unless circumstances change drastically. Aside from the prospect of being quarantined, there are issues of supply-chain interruption so don’t let anything essential to your life get low before re-supply. We’re all so used to whatever we want being instantly available and for a few months that might not be so. Not the least because of our fellow citizens engaging in panic buying. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/295 "2020-02-29T13:12:56Z")
At his hate rally last night in South Carolina, Individual-1 proclaimed that Captain Trumps was only in 1 state and that the actual virus was a Democratic hoax. Since then, cases have sprung up in three additional states: UT, OR, WA. And the WA cases(plural) are in separate counties. And, I’m sure, it’s in Texas given the complete ineffectiveness of Cruz and Cornyn. > **[Alabama senator’s boast: I kept coronavirus evacuees at Lackland](https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Alabama-senator-s-power-play-kept-15089594.php)** > > Call it a classic case of not-in-my-back-yard. One day after the U.S. Department of... > > **[2 new coronavirus cases emerge in Washington, in King and Snohomish counties](https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/2-new-coronavirus-cases-emerge-in-washington-in-king-county-and-snohomish-county/)** > > Two new "presumptive positive" COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in Washington — one in a King County woman who had been to South Korea and one in a Snohomish County teenager who had not traveled abroad, state officials said Friday evening. > ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/296 "2020-02-29T13:59:39Z")
Somewhat concerned for my parents, who are in their seventies, and my nephew, who is immunocompromised. Pretty seriously concerned that the study abroad trip I’m supposed to be leading to Ireland in May / June may get cancelled. Not at all worried for myself, since it sounds like the chances of this being serious for a healthy person in my age range are very low, and in any case, I think it’s unlikely to spread to where I live (smalltown Mississippi, not a lot of population density or people coming and going). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/297 "2020-02-29T14:07:16Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > I hope you are both correct. I’m hoping I’m wrong, but in the other direction. I see little chance that this is not a pandemic with globally 300Kish give or take a hundred thousand dead above and beyond the regular influenza toll. If it occurs concurrent with a moderately bad flu season then even American health systems will be stressed as surge capacity is limited. That’s bad. Zombie Apocalypse no, but bad. Even the worried well panic overwhelming clinics demanding testing and antivirals for everyone leading to shortages of things actually needed by others (already happening with masks) will be bad. It is definitely something to brace for. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/298 "2020-02-29T14:20:34Z")
If you’re in a contagion zone, I think that the second-best thing to do for the “worried well” is to see someone, no matter how strained the resources are. If people are spreading this while only mildly sick it would be useful to identify who those people are. But the best thing would be for people who only have mild cold-like symptoms is to stay home, which would limit the spread of the infection and free up resources for the sicker at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/299 "2020-02-29T18:27:20Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > At his hate rally last night in South Carolina, Individual-1 proclaimed that Captain Trumps was only in 1 state and that the actual virus was a Democratic hoax. Here’s my proposal: since President Bankrupt thinks it is a hoax, he should arrange a meeting with an infected person. That should show them. If he brings his Cabinet in also, all the better. ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/300 "2020-02-29T18:43:01Z")
I just stocked up on hand sanitizer. You might want to pick up some now before it is all gone. The President is about to give a news conference. Let’s see if he calls it a hoax again. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/301 "2020-02-29T18:44:36Z")
NPR: Seattle-Area Patient With Coronavirus Dies. > **[President Trump Confirms 1st U.S. Coronavirus Death; U.S. Heightens Travel...](https://www.npr.org/2020/02/29/810722517/seattle-area-patient-with-coronavirus-dies?ft=nprml&f=1007)** > > A man in his 50s has died, according to Washington state health officials. It's the first death from COVID-19 in the U.S. The president defended the administration's response. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=16)