# How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164 "2020-01-29T15:23:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/302 "2020-02-29T18:50:10Z")
Facebook seems to be down for me. I tried it in two browsers. I suspect Facebook is getting overloaded from corona-panic. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/303 "2020-02-29T18:54:03Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > Let’s see if he calls it a hoax again. He’s going to say the dead person is just faking it. ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/304 "2020-02-29T18:59:04Z")
Trump seems to be sedated. He is talking very slowly. Maybe he has coronavirus? ---
**Author:** ![furryman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/furryman/32/99_2.png) [@furryman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furryman)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/305 "2020-02-29T19:01:23Z")
I was never worried about it. I refuse to be worried about it. Yesterday I found out that it was discovered decades ago, thus proving there’s hardly any reason to worry about it. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 29, 2020, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/306 "2020-02-29T19:33:05Z")
Trump in this briefing seems more tired and haggard than I have ever seen him in anything. I think he’s probably stressed as hell by this situation. If his goal was to project an image of confidence and authority to the country, he failed. ---
**Author:** ![Mangosteen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Mangosteen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangosteen)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/307 "2020-03-01T01:24:26Z")
During the 2017/18 flu season 80,000 people, (yes that is EIGHTY THOUSAND people) died from the Flu in the United States alone. Yet the media never made a big deal of it. Can you imagine what the media reports would be like if we even approached those numbers this year? Is there any health official saying that the Coronavirus is more contagious or kills at a higher rate than the Common Flu? > **[80,000 People Died From Flu Last Season, According to CDC](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-care-news/articles/2018-09-27/cdc-80-000-people-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us)** > > The 2017-2018 flu season was the deadliest in at least 40 years. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/308 "2020-03-01T01:32:13Z")
It’s looking like it will be comparable to the flu, so, maybe double that? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/309 "2020-03-01T01:39:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Washington state reported on Saturday the first death in the U.S. from the new coronavirus, the first health care worker to be infected with the disease, and most worrying, the first known outbreak in a long-term care facility. > > **At a nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash, approximately 27 of the 108 residents and 25 of the 180 staff have some symptoms,** health officials said during a teleconference with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Authorities report that some among them have pneumonia. > **[First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns](https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/29/new-covid-19-death-raises-concerns-about-virus-spread-in-nursing-homes/)** > > Washington state reported the first U.S. death from the new #coronavirus, the first health care worker infected, and the first outbreak in a nursing home. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/310 "2020-03-01T01:44:25Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > Is there any health official saying that the Coronavirus is more contagious or kills at a higher rate than the Common Flu? Yes, many health officials are saying both of those things. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/311 "2020-03-01T02:00:59Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > During the 2017/18 flu season 80,000 people, (yes that is EIGHTY THOUSAND people) died from the Flu in the United States alone. Yet the media never made a big deal of it. Can you imagine what the media reports would be like if we even approached those numbers this year? Is there any health official saying that the Coronavirus is more contagious or kills at a higher rate than the Common Flu? > > [https://www.usnews.com/news/health-care-news/articles/2018-09-27/cdc-80-000-people-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-care-news/articles/2018-09-27/cdc-80-000-people-died-of-flu-complications-last-season-in-us) Flu death rate = 0.1%. Coronavirus 0.4% - 2.9%, depending on the province. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/312 "2020-03-01T03:04:42Z")
COVID-19 appears to be much more contagious than the flu. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/313 "2020-03-01T04:27:03Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > It’s looking like it will be comparable to the flu, so, maybe double that? 2017-18 ([61K per the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm), not 80K) was a particularly bad year, top of the range since 2010: 12K to 61K, typical year in the 30 to 40K range. The rate it kills at is, to be the broken record, still unknown as estimates of the numbers infected but not seriously ill and thereby not identified range from near zero (which is what using current confirmed case fatality rates as an accurate basis implicitly assumes) to two to three order of magnitude more than the current confirmed infection rate (which is based on experience with the difference between initial confirmed case numbers of H1N1 in 2008-9 and later estimates after the fact). If the number is 2%, then the infection fatality rate is comparable to typical seasonal influenza. If much higher it is much lower. Current excess mortality rate in Hubei is far lower than influenza rates. Question. How many cases of infection are there in the United States? Do you use the number of lab confirmed cases as an accurate assessment of the number of true infections in the country right now? Or do you assume that scattered confirmed cases showing up in a variety of communities implies some multiple thousands of cases not labelled, manifesting with mild diseases or without symptoms at all, many resolving without ever coming to anyone’s attention but having passed it on to, on average two or more people? ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/314 "2020-03-01T04:27:44Z")
> [@Lamoral](#): > > Trump in this briefing seems more tired and haggard than I have ever seen him in anything. I think he’s probably stressed as hell by this situation. If his goal was to project an image of confidence and authority to the country, he failed. He’s probably terribly jet-lagged (remember, he was in India just a few days ago) and that’s most likely why. Not defending him in any way, of course. BTW, I heard a Coronavirus joke earlier. You probably won’t get it, however. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/315 "2020-03-01T05:35:58Z")
Meanwhile, the Diamond Princess death toll is up to 7; average age of the victims is around 80 years old. ---
**Author:** ![steatopygia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steatopygia/32/3132_2.png) [@steatopygia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steatopygia)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/316 "2020-03-01T05:57:40Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > 2017-18 ([61K per the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm), not 80K) was a particularly bad year, top of the range since 2010: 12K to 61K, typical year in the 30 to 40K range. > > The rate it kills at is, to be the broken record, still unknown as estimates of the numbers infected but not seriously ill and thereby not identified range from near zero (which is what using current confirmed case fatality rates as an accurate basis implicitly assumes) to two to three order of magnitude more than the current confirmed infection rate (which is based on experience with the difference between initial confirmed case numbers of H1N1 in 2008-9 and later estimates after the fact). If the number is 2%, then the infection fatality rate is comparable to typical seasonal influenza. If much higher it is much lower. Current excess mortality rate in Hubei is far lower than influenza rates. > Question. How many cases of infection are there in the United States? > > Do you use the number of lab confirmed cases as an accurate assessment of the number of true infections in the country right now? Or do you assume that scattered confirmed cases showing up in a variety of communities implies some multiple thousands of cases not labelled, manifesting with mild diseases or without symptoms at all, many resolving without ever coming to anyone’s attention but having passed it on to, on average two or more people? I think you need to sound like a broken record. Even today, there are posters jumping in to these threads with comments like " Yesterday I found out that it was discovered decades ago, thus proving there’s hardly any reason to worry about it." To me, the smattering of positives tests are very random. That leads me to believe that there are going to be tens of thousands of cases. I could be wrong. Initially, in mid to late January, the CDC was reluctant to test. I think anyone that has a fever of unknown origin and a negative flu swab likely meets criteria now. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/317 "2020-03-01T06:48:50Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > He’s probably terribly jet-lagged (remember, he was in India just a few days ago) and that’s most likely why. Not defending him in any way, of course. I would bet a lot of money that trumpy was kept on the DC timezone the entire time. You don’t get jet lagged if you have a private jet, and all your meetings are in your home time zone… It ain’t like he flew in the back of the bus, had to deal with public transport, stay in a hostel, eat the local food or anything that might be part of jet lag. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/318 "2020-03-01T10:03:13Z")
> [@Mangosteen](#): > > Is there any health official saying that the Coronavirus is more contagious or kills at a higher rate than the Common Flu? Uh… yeah. Entities like the World Health Organization and the CDC and various other groups with real doctors and public health experts have been saying, based on current data, this thing is as infectious as regular flu, can be spread by people with no symptoms, and has a fatality rate of 1-3% (depending on locality and how strained local resources are) compared to the usual flu fatality rate of 0.1% In other words, an order of magnitude more likely to kill someone. That’s not a zombie apocalypse level, no, but it _really is_ more serious than ordinary flu. If it hasn’t killed tens of thousands of people it’s because it hasn’t infected enough people (yet) to rack up that level of death. So… if a hundred people have covid-19 then expect 1-3 deaths. Compared to flu where, with those numbers, no one might die. If a thousand get sick with covid expect 10-30 deaths. Compared to flu with 1 expected death. If ten thousand get sick with covid expect 100-300 deaths. Compared to flu with 10 expected deaths. If a hundred thousand get sick with covid expect 1000-3000 deaths (which is actually in line with current numbers). Compared to flu with an expected 100 deaths. If one million get sick with covid expect 10,000-30,000 dead. Compared to flu, with 1,000. If ten million get sick with covid expect … well, you get the idea by now. If flu killed 80,000 people in one year it’s because _hundreds of millions_ caught the flu. And if comparable number of people caught covid the expected death toll, based on current data, would be between 800,000 and 2.4 _million_ people. Again, not zombie apocalypse level but still very, very serious. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/319 "2020-03-01T13:05:47Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > Uh… yeah. > > Entities like the World Health Organization and the CDC and various other groups with real doctors and public health experts have been saying, based on current data, this thing is as infectious as regular flu, can be spread by people with no symptoms, and has a fatality rate of 1-3% (depending on locality and how strained local resources are) compared to the usual flu fatality rate of 0.1% In other words, an order of magnitude more likely to kill someone. All the cites I’ve seen emphasize that the numbers for COVID are tentative and likely to be an overestimate. The most recent data from the CCDC, based on 72,324 patients, suggests a fatality rate of 2.9% in Hubei and just 0.4% elsewhere. Yes, that’s the Chinese authority, so pinch of salt, but this is the biggest data set we have and I think it would be bad faith to just ignore this data and choose to instead interpret the worst numbers in the worst way. It’s one thing to say it may well have a higher fatality rate than flu. It’s another to declare it as fact, even underlining it. And [this](https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203) explains why such numbers might be off. > [@Prof. Manuel Battegay](#): > > it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude. > […] > The true number of exposed cases affected in Wuhan may be vastly underestimated. With a focus on thousands of serious cases, mild or asymptomatic courses that possibly account for the bulk of the 2019-nCoV infections might remain largely unrecognized, in particular during the influenza season. [link](https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203) ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/320 "2020-03-01T13:39:47Z")
> [@steatopygia](#): > > I think you need to sound like a broken record. Even today, there are posters jumping in to these threads with comments like " Yesterday I found out that it was discovered decades ago, thus proving there’s hardly any reason to worry about it." > To me, the smattering of positives tests are very random. That leads me to believe that there are going to be tens of thousands of cases. I could be wrong. > > Initially, in mid to late January, the CDC was reluctant to test. I think anyone that has a fever of unknown origin and a negative flu swab likely meets criteria now. I’m guessing it’s already widespread in the US, for those reasons. I’m also guessing the Chinese numbers understate the denominator, and the mortality is closer to seasonal flu than the official stats. But yes, it could be an order of magnitude worse than the flu. And, of course, we don’t have a vaccine. And it’s not obvious to me that we will get a strong protective vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![sedger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/71c47a/32.png) [@sedger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sedger)\ **Post date:** [March 1, 2020, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/321 "2020-03-01T13:48:06Z")
I don’t fully understand why there is so much fear regarding the coronavirus, the flu kills about 50,000 people every year so shouldn’t that get more attention…? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=17)