# How concerned are you about this Coronavirus? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [January 29, 2020, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164 "2020-01-29T15:23:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/121 "2020-02-18T02:47:57Z")
> [@FairyChatMom](#): > > Hearing about the cruise ships that aren’t letting anyone off is a little off-putting, as we’ve got a cruise scheduled in May. Then again, it’s pretty far out, time-wise, plus we’re sailing for Bermuda out of NJ, so I expect the chances of anyone coming from China for a week-long cruise is pretty small. > > Mostly, I just imagine being trapped on a ship with thousands of pissed-off travelers and a few sickies - not much of a vacation… mrAru and I discussed it [though our cruise isn’t until next Feb, our 30th anniversary] it wouldn’t’ be that big a deal to us - we always get a handicapped rigged balcony stateroom so it has a bit more floorspace than the normal balcony cabin for 2 people. Additionally, oddly enough we go on cruises so he can hit ports and ship/play tourist, do fun stuff like swim with rays or bask on a beach and people watch - well and food too =) Since I take along about 500 tea bags, plenty of powdered splenda and plenty of powdered lemon packets, and I would guess they would keep the coffee and fixings coming, we can bask on the balcony and people watch the pier - much like what we do now. > [@Broomstick](#): > > I’m also concerned about the cruise ships under quarantine - it’s not a simple “two weeks and you can go home”, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be a quarantine of “two weeks past the last infection”, which can turn into quite a lengthy period of time. And infection control in a densely populated closed system like a cruise ship. Add in problems of re-supply of everything needed and a topping of folks who came onto the cruise with medical problems that need daily medication and the normal rate of people getting sick/injured/heart attacks/etc. in such settings and… well, I’m _really glad_ I’m not on a cruise ship under quarantine. I do the recommended thing and bring my actual medication bottles [well with vials of insulin it is sort of required =)] so I tend to bring my 3 month fresh supply … so I am not overly worried about running out of meds any time soon. But I do see that as a valid issue for most people who just bring their 1 week/2 week supply. > [@TokyoBayer](#): > > The number of infected on the cruise ship in Japan has hit 130 and they have only tested 336 people, with Japan saying they can’t test everyone. > > What a nightmare for those involved. Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a _major_ modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/122 "2020-02-18T07:27:24Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > So…the Westerdam cruise ship finally found a country, Cambodia, willing to let them dock, and they just let the passengers go without any sort of quarantine. And now one passenger definitely is positive for the coronavirus, and her husband has pneumonia, so he’s probably positive too. I hope not too many of the other 598 American passengers who are coming home have it too… First, they have to find a way out of Cambodia. [‘More countries will not let us fly through’: Hundreds from Westerdam cruise ship stuck in Cambodia](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/17/coronavirus-holland-america-cruise-passengers-now-stuck-cambodia/4778856002/) > [@](#): > > There was a moment of what seemed like sweet relief when passengers were able to disembark from Holland America’s MS Westerdam after being turned away from multiple ports [in Philippines, Japan, Guam and Thailand]. But things took a turn when a passenger from the ship was diagnosed with coronavirus on her journey home. > > As a result, hundreds of passengers and crew members, now docked in Cambodia, are finding themselves in limbo once again. OP: How concerned are we, personally? Not much; but we still have a day to cancel a trip to a populated area. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/123 "2020-02-18T10:05:57Z")
> [@aruvqan](#): > > Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a _major_ modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab? Apparently there is a shortage of specific materials needed for the specific test. Remember, this test didn’t even exist a couple months ago, so there’s no backlog of kits to distribute. Production isn’t keeping up with demand. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2020, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/124 "2020-02-18T11:37:54Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > First, they have to find a way out of Cambodia. [‘More countries will not let us fly through’: Hundreds from Westerdam cruise ship stuck in Cambodia](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/02/17/coronavirus-holland-america-cruise-passengers-now-stuck-cambodia/4778856002/) More have already left than remain. > [@](#): > > On a briefing call Monday afternoon, Dr. William Walters, the director of operational medicine at the U.S. State Department, told reporters that 260 American citizens remain in hotels in Cambodia pending onward travel, and 92 more are on board the MS Westerdam. Around 300 Americans left Cambodia after testing under their ministry of health. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/125 "2020-02-19T05:42:50Z")
> [@aruvqan](#): > > Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a _major_ modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab? Maybe they didn’t want to test it? [From CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/18/asia/japan-health-guidelines-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html), > [@](#): > > Other experts have also raised the alarm. A Japanese infectious disease specialist who visited the quarantined cruise ship alleged there is inadequate infection control on board. > “Inside the Diamond Princess, I was was so scared … there was no way to tell where the virus was … bureaucrats were in charge of everything,” said Kentaro Iwata, an infectious disease specialist at Kobe University in a YouTube video published Tuesday. People have argued the quarantining was a good idea, but it looks like it may not have been such a good idea after all. The total number of confirmed cases is 545. Insane. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/126 "2020-02-19T12:17:08Z")
Quarantine CAN be a good idea… but a badly done quarantine is a bad idea. As I said up thread, a ship quarantine is NOT to protect the people on board the ship, it’s to protect the people on shore. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/127 "2020-02-19T16:33:30Z")
I am not extremely worried, but more so that previous outbreaks of viri d’jour. But this is due to my circumstances…I am changing careers, and in a month or so I will be working in a hospital, touching patients. The hospital in the state where all the sickest people end up. If this virus is suspected, either I or one of my cohort will be in contact with those patients. TB worries me more though…pain in the ass gowning & masking up to go in those rooms. ---
**Author:** ![MarkusB](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7cd45c/32.png) [@MarkusB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarkusB)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/128 "2020-02-19T19:03:00Z")
Not particularly. It is sad people are dying but it happens every day for a variety of reasons (car accidents, cancer, and others). ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/129 "2020-02-19T20:49:45Z")
> [@MarkusB](#): > > Not particularly. It is sad people are dying but it happens every day for a variety of reasons (car accidents, cancer, and others). This is a very infectious virus which kills 2 out of every hundred people it infects. The mortality rate dwarfs that of flu or other common respiratory illness by an order an magnitude. This number could be falsely high or low, but we might as well stay with it as an estimate. While older people are more at risk, it has killed plenty of younger people as well. It makes 1 out of 5 patients seriously ill for a prolonged period. It has a long incubation period, can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers and cases have occurred in dozens of countries, so its hard to see how it won’t start spreading in North America or wherever you live. China may or not have slowed or stopped its spread only by using quarantine measures which are insanely disruptive and draconian by Western standards. And you’re not worried about it because people die in car accidents all the time? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2020, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/130 "2020-02-19T22:11:14Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > This is a very infectious virus which kills 2 out of every hundred people it infects. The mortality rate dwarfs that of flu or other common respiratory illness by an order an magnitude. This number could be falsely high or low, but we might as well stay with it as an estimate. I would disagree with that, if that high estimate is being used as a jumping off point for sensationalizing. The numbers outside of hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed (and also it’s looking at multiple provinces’ / countries’ data versus 1) and they are suggesting a value within the same order of magnitude as flu. To be clear: no one wants another novel pathogen added in to the mix, so I admire (and have supported) the efforts being made to contain the spread. But no I don’t think it’s worth people panicking over, particularly people who are apathetic about getting a flu jab. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/131 "2020-02-20T00:42:16Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I would disagree with that, if that high estimate is being used as a jumping off point for sensationalizing. > > The numbers outside of hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed (and also it’s looking at multiple provinces’ / countries’ data versus 1) and they are suggesting a value within the same order of magnitude as flu. Sure. And of course the number of undetected mild or asymptomatic infections may be much higher, which would lower the death rate considerably. On the other hand, the natural course of this disease seems to be a slow one (see the recent case report in the Lancet which described 10-14 days from onset of symptoms to death), so the death rate may lag behind in areas where the virus is becoming established. > [@](#): > > To be clear: no one wants another novel pathogen added in to the mix, so I admire (and have supported) the efforts being made to contain the spread. But no I don’t think it’s worth people panicking over, particularly people who are apathetic about getting a flu jab. Nothing is worth panicking over, because it’s not constructive. My point was really that some people’s insouciant attitudes seem to stem from numerical illiteracy or denial rather than a calmly considered view of the situation. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/132 "2020-02-20T00:53:27Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > The numbers outside of Hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed… But that is exactly what some of us are worried about–that the number of cases will get so high that the medical system can’t handle it and consequently large numbers will die. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/133 "2020-02-20T01:49:44Z")
And that’s a legitimate concern; that if secondary pockets spring up elsewhere things could ultimately get as bad as seasonal flu. That’s very serious, don’t get me wrong, but it’s still different to the framing that’s going on in the media. I live in China, and while it’s great friends and family are concerned for me, I have to tell them that, even in China, in the city im in, I’m still approximately 100x more likely to catch the flu. Sent from my Redmi 5A using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/134 "2020-02-20T01:51:00Z")
And now for a word from “reality check”! Number of new daily cases decreasing, even with the expanded liberal case definition now in use in Hubei. Total number of worldwide deaths outside of Hubei Province: 94. Out of 13,617 identified cases. Identified case fatality rate 0.6% - only slightly higher than influenza (and still likely subject to a selection bias to the sickest cases being identified). Number of cases considered recovered outside of Hubei: 5787. That’s 42% of all identified cases outside of Hubei are already considered recovered. The recovered rate inside Hubei is under 17% to date. If the death rate outside of Hubei is lagging the recovery rate sure is not! The virus, or minimally identifiable disease caused by the virus, has apparently NOT spread like wildfire across China outside of Hubei. And outside of Hubei identified cases are recovering more often and after fairly short courses of illness with a fraction of the case fatality rate. There is of course reason for some concern and for appropriate actions that reduce risk. But “numerical literacy” and “calm consideration” leads to a conclusion that the these actions are, appropriately, reducing a fairly tiny risk to one even smaller, because the risk is of something potentially big. Rational thought would have people even _more_ concerned about much larger established risks that can be reduced with relatively little efforts. ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/135 "2020-02-20T01:58:18Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > And that’s a legitimate concern; that if secondary pockets spring up elsewhere things could ultimately get as bad as seasonal flu. That’s very serious, don’t get me wrong, but it’s still different to the framing that’s going on in the media. Again, reports in the medical literature, not the popular media, suggest that this is much worse than the seasonal flu. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/136 "2020-02-20T02:02:27Z")
Which one? The hong Kong paper which has already been shown to be _way_ off in its predictions? (The paper itself is correctly tentative in its speculations, but it got reported in much of the media as “experts say”) Sent from my Redmi 5A using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/137 "2020-02-20T02:06:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > And now for a word from “reality check”! > > Number of new daily cases decreasing, even with the expanded liberal case definition now in use in Hubei. > > Total number of worldwide deaths outside of Hubei Province: 94. Out of 13,617 identified cases. Identified case fatality rate 0.6% - only slightly higher than influenza (and still likely subject to a selection bias to the sickest cases being identified). And subject to the opposite bias that this virus does not lead to death in a day or two. The cases outside of Hubei have all arisen more recently and therefore we wouldn’t expect to see many deaths yet. > [@](#): > > Number of cases considered recovered outside of Hubei: 5787. That’s 42% of all identified cases outside of Hubei are already considered recovered. The recovered rate inside Hubei is under 17% to date. If the death rate outside of Hubei is lagging the recovery rate sure is not! > > The virus, or minimally identifiable disease caused by the virus, has apparently NOT spread like wildfire across China outside of Hubei. And outside of Hubei identified cases are recovering more often and after fairly short courses of illness with a fraction of the case fatality rate. Or there may be more aggressive efforts to identify mild cases outside of Hubei, made possible because the medical infrastructure is not overwhelmed, so you’d expect to see more recoveries (and a lower death rate, for that matter) because you’re not looking at the same more severe subset of cases. > [@](#): > > There is of course reason for some concern and for appropriate actions that reduce risk. But “numerical literacy” and “calm consideration” leads to a conclusion that the these actions are, appropriately, reducing a fairly tiny risk to one even smaller, because the risk is of something potentially big. Rational thought would have people even _more_ concerned about much larger established risks that can be reduced with relatively little efforts. I think we can all agree that people who don’t mitigate known risks by getting flu shots are acting unwisely. Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Shmendrik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ee7513/32.png) [@Shmendrik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shmendrik)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/138 "2020-02-20T02:11:31Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Which one? The hong Kong paper which has already been shown to be _way_ off in its predictions? > (The paper itself is correctly tentative in its speculations, but it got reported in much of the media as “experts say”) > > Sent from my Redmi 5A using Tapatalk No. The two articles I’m referring to are the large epidemiological study found here, which was widely reported on: [http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51](http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51) And this case study and pathology findings here: [https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30076-X/fulltext](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30076-X/fulltext) Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/139 "2020-02-20T06:48:53Z")
> [@Shmendrik](#): > > And subject to the opposite bias that this virus does not lead to death in a day or two. The cases outside of Hubei have all arisen more recently and therefore we wouldn’t expect to see many deaths yet. > > Or there may be more aggressive efforts to identify mild cases outside of Hubei, made possible because the medical infrastructure is not overwhelmed, so you’d expect to see more recoveries (and a lower death rate, for that matter) because you’re not looking at the same more severe subset of cases. … I think you are missing the point of those numbers. If we are not seeing many deaths because “the cases outside of Hubei have all arisen more recently”, then we should not be seeing many completely recovered _yet_, because “the cases outside of Hubei have all arisen more recently”. Yes, there are many more relatively milder cases being identified outside of Hubei, whereas in Hubei the relatively mild cases are not being identified. THAT IS PRECISELY THE POINT. It is why the statement that the virus “kills 2 out of every hundred people it infects” is a complete mis-statement, based on a faulty understanding of what the current identified or “confirmed” case fatality rate, mostly driven by the subset of confirmed cases in Hubei, means. Also notable - per that China CDC article (Table 1) there have been up through 2/11/20 only under a thousand cases confirmed in children 19 and under. It is very plausible (and it seems to be) that children get milder or even asymptomatic disease more often, but it is not so likely that there are actually that few kids catching the virus. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2020, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164/140 "2020-02-20T07:22:34Z")
Please also be aware - the comparison is being made to influenza fatality rates. For that we have years of developing the models and the standard approach uses multipliers of as reported/confirmed cases are known to be just the tip of the iceberg. But we have ways to deduce how big that iceberg is from the tip. Right now the cases identified outside of Hubei in China are likely only the tip of the total number of cases … we just don’t yet have the means to completely model how big the iceberg is. We know it is larger than the tip. The larger the iceberg is, of course, the lower the actual fatality rate, which again, outside of Hubei is already not very far off from influenza’s number. A pandemic infecting many millions with a case fatality rate even significantly lower than influenza would still be a big deal. Containing it if possible is VERY appropriate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-are-you-about-this-coronavirus/847164.md?page=8)