My husband is in the import-export business, and travels globally often. He no longer travels to certain countries or has contact with those who do. Still, I worry about him.
Ok. So, the CDC person said people need to “be prepared”. What does that mean? Like, if the reasonable worse case happens, what will I wish I had done? I am imagining a full-blown outbreak here. I think they’d close the schools, so we’d be home. Medical infrastructure would be overwhelmed. If we had CORVID-19 in our house, all of us sick at the same time, is there anything I’d really really wish I’d’ve stockpiled? It sounds like most of the time, you just are sick and then get better. Sometime it’s so bad you need oxygen or a ventilator, which I can’t get. Is there anything in the middle? Anything you’d want to have for a person who was very sick, if hospitals were too overwhelmed to help? I am sincerely curious.
The other issue, of course, is if we are all sort of shut-ins for a while, what do I need to have on hand? Food for several weeks? Is there anything else?
Yeah, I got really annoyed with the CDC saying “be prepared” but giving no details.
I’m going to assume they’d keep utilities running based on historical examples of cities under quarantine.
So… my guess would be
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food and toiletries/supplies for 2 weeks or more (including daily medication and OTC meds for cold/flu type illness for symptom relief)
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plenty of fluid/sick person food: soups, juices, sodas, in addition to the water you presumably get out of the tap. Bottled water if that’s what you drink.
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cleaning supplies
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something for entertainment so you don’t go stir-crazy
But, goddamn CDC, you need to be more specific than “be prepared”.
I would read that as being “mentally prepared”.
Don’t expect that it is possible to dodge the virus, don’t think it is possible for the authorities to keep this bug out completely.
In addition, know the symptoms and what to do if you get them. Here in the Netherlands for instance, they are fairly clear about not going to hospital or a doctor…they will come to you if there is a chance you have it.
Thusfar no cases here, but they just found the virus in a guy in Germany, 20 km from the border. And in Innsbruck of course, where a good chunk of the country is for their skiing holiday. It is highly unlikely that there won’t be a case here…
Verstuurd vanaf mijn moto g(6) met Tapatalk
If it ever become apparent that containment is not realistic it seems that it might be better just to stop all efforts at containment and leave it to the individual to take whatever precautions he can. I still have not seen any numbers on death rates of those exposed and the risk factors based on age and underlying health issues. Panic may actually cause more damage than the illness. Allowing it to run its course might shorten the length of time this virus affects world activities.
Other articles I’ve read have mentioned stuff like, try to figure out a childcare plan if schools are closed and you’re still at work, businesses should plan for employees working from home, schools should plan for remote learning…that sort of thing.
Personally, I’ve lived in hurricane-prone areas most of my life and we camp a lot, so we normally stay supplied for an emergency lasting about a week; we will likely expand our supplies to last us for a month. Broomstick’s list is good. Make sure you think about pet supplies if you need them.
Some of those numbers are found here (a Washington Post article that is likely behind a paywall). Here is a non-paywalled link to the key data from the article.
The death rates listed are:
age 50 - 59: 1 to 2%
age 60 - 69: 4%
age 70 - 79: 8%
age over 80: 15%
So, young people will (generally) be okay. OTOH, unless I’ve misjudged the SDMB demographics, I’d say we are likely to lose a few Dopers.
As has been stated above, most notably by ** DSeid**, those are not “death rates of those exposed”, or even of infected. They are death rates of those sick enough to seek medical help (or perhaps sick enough to not avoid medical help, in China). The difference between those two numbers appears to be the burning question at this point.
Is there anything a person can have on hand to help a person who has labored breathing? That seems to be the thing that kills people, and if hospitals are overwhelmed, is there literally anything that can be done at home other than rest?
All true. But it works both ways - the numbers don’t include those who died from it but had no access to care; or who died before they accessed it; and especially those with comorbidities who died because their undiagnosed coronavirus infection precipitated another fatal illness (e.g. heart failure, renal failure, etc.)
In my opinion, it requires no great leap of faith to imagine that the death rate for those over age 60 will be several percent. Not only may millions die worldwide, but the health care systems they (try to) access will be inundated and their budgets exhausted, leading to collateral damage to the care of everyone else regardless of what ails them.
Maybe. On the other hand, this is the way the news is reporting the first French COVID19 fatality:
So COVID-19 causes massive PE’s as an early symptom now? Or a patient came in with cough and respiratory distress due to his massive PE, and was incidentally found to be positive for COVID-19?
In my opinion a huge leap of imagination is required to think that.
It requires either imagining huge HUGE numbers of Chinese dead from COVID-19 that are not being reported or having some other explanation for how such a scenario is consistent with an excess mortality rate for COVID-19 in Hubei lower than the low end for seasonal influenza (with new reported cases dropping off) and relatively insignificant numbers of deaths for population size in the rest of China. No not the “lock down”.
I make the same point I have made before: imagining that novel to human coronaviruses just suddenly started happening two decades ago is unrealistic. We just haven’t been aware of them before, lost in the statistical noise of flu season severity variability.
There is little doubt in my mind that post hoc analysis w
will show a large portion of children in Hubei having had infections with the virus this year.
I also wouldn’t be so quick to predict US healthcare being overwhelmed. It is very quick to adapt to things like this.
In 2009, during the H1N1 pandemic, the ER I was working at was able to set up a “flu clinic” in a separate lobby. No muss, no fuss. We were able to see an additional 50-60 people a day* and* somewhat isolate them from our normal population. With the low level of lethality so far demonstrated by this virus, we will be OK. Scheduled surgeries will be postponed and people may not receive that wonderfully average care they have come to expect, but I don’t think things will break down.
Manda Jo, based on the news reports out of Asia, the only thing you will need is toilet paper. 
I borrowed a phone that had an automatic newsfeed from Google UK.
On one day an article matter-of-factly stated “The fatality rate for COVID-19 is unknown, but is likely to be similar to the influenza pandemic of 1918”
The very next day the article was about preparing for coronavirus; a list of all the things you should panic buy to be able to live for months without access to shops.
No wonder so many of my British friends are absolutely freaking out.
You will likely find that your chance of catching, and even dying, of the flu, wherever you are now, is likely to be at least an order of magnitude higher than of catching or dying respectively of COVID19 anywhere except Hubei proper.
That said, I would be concerned about being stuck in quarantine, especially a fuckup like the princess diamond. There’s no way of eliminating that possibility, so it comes down to whether you think that risk is acceptable. But note, that particular risk is no longer limited to just SE Asia; you might end up in a quarantine while travelling within Europe or the middle east.
I myself will be flying within China tomorrow, so I have every crossable bodypart crossed.
Good luck Mijin, let us know how it goes.
Regarding traveling in SE Asia right now. I would also be worried about things being closed, particularly tourist things.
Guys, you will be thrilled to learn that the HHS director, Alex Azar, is making sure that the drug companies make a profit from the Covid-19 vaccine and, therefore, can not guarantee that it will be affordable.
“We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can’t control that price, because we need the private sector to invest… Price controls won’t get us there.”
I am assuming it will spread more widely, much more widely than has happened in China. Not all countries will have the inclination or the means to lock down their populations.
This is substantially more dangerous than the flu. So not only will you need a very large number of additional hospital beds, you will need a very large number of additional ICU beds.
Has there ever been a usable vaccine for a coronavirus caused disease? AIUI, attempts to make one for SARS or MERS failed. Or the subset of “common cold” that is caused by coronaviruses and not rhinoviruses? Moreover, is the mutation rate of this virus established, and is the rate slow enough that a vaccine can be made that will cover a significant number of the subtypes?
It may not be achievable, no matter how much money is thrown at the problem.
OTOH, molecular biology has undergone so many revolutionary changes, it may as well be a completely different science than it was even 20 years ago.
CBS News has a story stating that the CDC does not recommend wearing masks to prevent the spread of respiratory diseases.
That is debatable.
Here is the person they quoted, Alex Azar.
From Wiki;
“Alex Michael Azar II (/ˈeɪzər/ born June 17, 1967) is an American attorney, politician, pharmaceutical lobbyist, and former drug company executive who serves as the United States Secretary of Health and Human Services, having been Deputy Secretary from 2005 to 2007. He was nominated by President Donald Trump on November 13, 2017, and confirmed by the Senate on January 24, 2018.[2]”
I can not think of credentials that scream liar stronger than those.
Quote wearing masks “could actually sometimes be more harmful to you than not wearing a mask, because if it’s not fitted right you’re going to fumble with it. You’re going to be touching your face, which is the No. 1 way you’re going to get disease, is unclean hands touching your face.”
Nonsense