I think it’s good news. Up to now, we didn’t understand why Covid-19 was so contagious. Figuring that out is important to devise ways to contain or minimize its incidence.
It’s also good to have a median incubation period. A lot of people (including the media) seem to believe that because we are quarantining people for two weeks that means it typically or always takes two weeks for onset of symptoms.
If it really typically took two weeks then we would be quarantining people for 3 weeks or more.
I’d be cautious about interpreting much and remain shocked at the quoted expert’s statement that documenting high viral load in sputum proves that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing. It does not and the authors make no such claim.
Also URI is the presentation in under 5% of identified COVID-19 cases according to the WHO. Extrapolating from this presentation widely is unfounded.
The incubation period data is good to have though.
As I said in another thread, it seems to me that if we’re still at this level of contagion, death, panic, and government response (or worse) four months from now, then you’ll probably be too worried about the collapse of human civilization (or the nation/world turning fascist overnight in desperation and fear) to think of your trip. So I’d just assume it’s on.
Ha, we can always hope! We have a trip to Australia planned for late June. Our insurance doesn’t reimburse us if we cancel just because we’re worried, so we’re just going to hold tight until we get a lot closer and hope for the best. Either all hell will have broken out by then or we’re headed to Sydney.
To answer the original question, in thinking about it, I am incredibly privileged when it comes to riding this out.
I’m middle aged, in reasonably good health, and live alone, less than a couple of miles from a major hospital, so I’m less likely to be seriously sick, less likely to die, and more likely to be prioritized if I am hospitalized than those older than me. My job has excellent benefits, so I have a lot of PTO saved up, and I’m currently working from home (and am required to, barring a few things that can’t be done outside the office). I live in an urban/suburban area, so little fear of supply disruption. My parents are 70+, but they’re intelligent people and my sister lives with them, so I trust in their ability to avoid getting sick.
My main concerns are for those not nearly as lucky as me, and the businesses I like that may face rough times during this. I’ve tried to get out a little, to my local game store and restaurant I like, but I’m not sure yet if I’ll make any special effort to spend money at either place more.
We officially cancelled our annual national conference today, though I knew about and cultivated a migraine over it late yesterday. If the hotel in Texas isn’t reasonable about the room block etc. we stand to lose a couple to three people’s annual salaries worth of money. That’s pretty scary for a non-profit.
And, we’re attached to a university, which is currently weighing options about what “to do” next…they might well close, and might not let us work from home because we wouldn’t be teaching the online versions of the classes for the rest of the semester. I’m in good financial shape myself, and in a pretty skilled position, so I’m not too worried about myself, but I like my coworkers and hate to see any of them victims of the potential fallout even if I weather the situation fine myself
Given the potential for things to get much, much worse I’m beginning to feel like a 1 to 10 scale is not nearly granulated enough to keep track of how worrying this all is getting.
Here in NC all public universities are now only doing classes online, all in person classes are cancelled. Duke also did the same , not sure about other private universities here like Wake Forest, Davidson, Elon, etc.
Not worried much myself , I am lucky that I work at home.
My son and I have tickets to London for his Spring Break in 9 days. Europe travel restrictions don’t apply to the UK so far, but I’m a bit concerned, not so much about getting sick, but about getting quarantined in London or Dallas (our port of entry) causing him to miss the start of his final quarter of college.
The airline, BA, is only offering free changes for new bookings, and ours are from December, so rescheduling would be very costly, as would cancellation of non-refundable tickets. We’re lucky that we can afford the loss of a couple thousand dollars, but I was really looking forward to spending the time with my son. On the plus side, our hotel reservation is cancellable, so the airfare is the only potential loss.
We’re waiting until Sunday to make the final decision on changing/cancelling the trip.
You don’t want panic, but you absolutely want to get ahead of this disease. It’s better to overreact than to fail to react and have people not trust the information they’re getting from official sources.
One thing you can be sure of: while we’re not testing, the virus is spreading. It doesn’t care whether we’re manipulating the numbers for political purposes; it’s making people mildly ill, allowing them to spread the disease in clusters, and making some people extremely ill, and even killing them. And this is repeating itself over and over and over again, in airports, in bus stations, in train stations, in stadiums, movie theaters, concert halls, schools, and other public gatherings large or small.
COVID concerns? This has been mentioned somewhere but I’ll focus again on SPRING BREAK. Paid events can be and are cancelled. No-admission party towns aren’t so easy to close down. If transport is restricted to offshore orgy sites, US partiers will stream to domestic targets by road. Will we see roadblocks around Santa Cruz and Daytona? Many of those partiers will be young and healthy but the staffs serving them won’t be so. I look for a huge explosion of cases after Easter.
I’m now beginning to see some encouraging signs. It’s not because of any response from the White House; it’s coming from institutions, organizations, and local governments. We’re fortunate that they’re starting to do the job that the federal government has not.
Re: Spring break, more and more schools are extending spring break and moving to online instruction, so the word is getting out that social distancing is the best option right now.
I’m concerned that I may not be able to get rid of this earworm.
*Look out all of you big strong men
Coronavirus is back again
We got ourselves in a terrible jam
'cause a virus spread from old Wuhan
So put on your masks, don’t shake hands
A pandemic’s stalking the land
And it’s 1, 2, 3, what are we coughing for
Don’t tell me, I feel real blue
Next stop’s the I.C.U.
And it’s 4, 5, 6, open up the pearly gates
There ain’t no time to wonder why
We all gonna die*
I’d agree with this sentiment regarding Spring Break - I’m really shocked how many of my friends and neighbors are going on their vacations, driving down to Florida, hitting up restaurants and bars and running in 5ks - and that the 5ks are still happening, for that matter. A few minutes ago, a friend posted a picture on facebook of her in a crowd of people running a St. Patrick’s Day race. Yet another friend was shocked when they were turned back in the LA airport on their way to a vacation in Australia. They were a little outraged that they’d be expected to self-quarantine for 14 days.
Anyway, there’s a reason that we’re all being asked to stay home. Spreading that shit all over creation, saying, “Well, I’m clean! I wash my hands! We’re all gonna get it anyway, and we shouldn’t stop living our lives,” is kinda ridiculous.
I have a friend who is much more worried, about me, than I am. She is in her mid-50’s, single, and self-isolating because she went on a trip to a conference a couple of weeks ago and now regrets it (she was giving a talk there). I am 70 and my husband is 72 and we are both functioning adults, but she has informed me that she is going to be checking on me via text every day, asking how I am and if I have food. As if we are both going to fall over and be unable to move, without warning, at the same time, so that only her intervention will save us.
I appreciate the concern, I guess, but it’s simply not realistic. She has a centenarian neighbor and friend, this kind of checking in would be appropriate for her. I know 70 and 72 sounds old to a lot of people, but it really isn’t. And if one or both of us gets taken ill, it’s not her I’m going to call, I’m going to get medical help.
I attribute this behavior on her part to her need to always be ahead of the curve in whatever people “in the know” are doing. I’m not going to tell her my opinion of her behavior, because most of the time I enjoy her company, so I will answer her texts briefly as and when I see them. But still, there aren’t enough rolleyes.
This post may not be precisely relevant to this thread, but I had to vent somewhere.
I think the need to just do something is a major motivator. People feel helpless, so they try to find anything they have some control over, whether it’s needed or not.
At the time this was posted I think something like 85% of the cases in Korea had been identified in the previous 2 weeks, so it’s not surprising that the CFR was so low. It often takes weeks to die from this. There are currently 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths for a CFR of just under 1%.
Another huge factor you neglected is the age distribution of the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Patient 31 infected several members of the Shincheonji cult, which apparently is mostly young people. As a result there are now more Koreans in their 20s who have tested positive for the virus than there are people over 60:
