Wonder how long until people start making serious and concerted efforts to avoid quarantine? Other than that one lady in Russia who broke out on her own.
Could the Corona virus be the Black Swan that finally picks this colossal debt bubble?
Yeah, it could.
So could other things.
Buckle in, folks, 2020 could be a wild ride!
Probably not until the quarantine becomes oppressive. When it’s a small number of people, and they are well-treated within quarantine, most will likely comply. When it’s a large number being warehoused in close quarters with others who might be more likely to be infected, they are more likely to try to evade quarantine.
How long did it take for the planet to take HIV seriously? It was a really easy disease to prevent from spreading.
I’ve been seeing people on Twitter start writing about how in America you should be stock-piling as much canned goods and cash as possible due to the fact a lot of people are going to start losing their jobs once the virus becomes a pandemic in the United States.
Curious how fear mongering this is, they’re also suggesting own at least one gun as well.
It is complete fear mongering. As to guns, I think the US already has like 3 guns per person.
Yes, but not every person has three guns. Or even one gun. MOST Americans don’t own any guns, but a minority own a lot of guns.
Of course, once you lose your job in the US you also lose your health insurance - ha, that’s going to work well with a pandemic…:rolleyes:
You don’t usually lose your job immediately upon becoming ill. Not do you lose your insurance immediately upon losing your job. And COBRA is expensive, but looks like a good deal if you are hospitalized when you are making the decision. I think most Americans who are employed when they contact covid-19 will stay insured through their treatment.
No, but if too many staff are ill/quarantined your employer may go out of business, in which case you can lose your job even if you aren’t sick.
It’s a “good deal” only if you have the money to pay for it. With many Americans unable to pull $400 out of their pocket for an emergency expense many will simply not be able to make even one COBRA payment.
Sure - there will be a window of a couple weeks before their coverage is cancelled, but rest assured the insurance industry will drop people as fast as possible.
You are more of an optimist than I am in this area.
I would not be surprised if this causes the complete collapse of the so-called US medical “system”. Great, world-class facilities but millions without access to them. In the US, if you don’t have insurance you don’t get access, and even if you do have insurance a two-week stay in quarantine will financially break tens of millions of Americans between “co-pays” and “not covered” and no income coming in for at least two weeks. Is the quarantine facility you’re being shipped to “in network”? If not, you’re screwed.
VERY fear-mongering. But to answer let’s back up a bit.
During normal influenza seasons the excess mortality rate due to the three main strains of influenza in China add up to 5.5/100K, and in bad influenza seasons, be it the first big H1N1 year, or other bad seasonal years, gets to nearly four times that.
For a region like Hubei, population roughly 60 million, that means that most influenza seasons lead to 3 to 4K excess influenza deaths and a bad flu season leads to about 10 to 16K. Most years 80% of the deaths in those over 60 and/or with other existing health issues
So far Hubei, the epicenter, has reported under 2400 deaths from COVID-19 with a similar age distribution to most influenza seasons. Let’s assume it is an undercount - more yet to die (although it does seem to be slowing there) and some deaths from it out of the count yet - double it. Still not far off from what most flu seasons do and (assuming no overlap between the sets) adding it to what most influenza seasons do, still a much less impact than what bad influenza seasons have done in recent decades.
The equal of a bad influenza season would be bad. In the United States a mild flu season kills 12,000 and a bad one nearly 80,000. It would wonderful to be able to prevent the equal of a recent bad flu season (adding a COVID- pandemic on top of a moderate influenza season). That’s potentially ten to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths in the United States. Tragic. Bad. But recent bad flu seasons have not resulted in economic collapse and breakdown of American society. Even in the 2009 H1N1 year that skewed younger morbidity and mortality impacts.
**on whether surgical masks work **: I had been puzzled by this in recent days because a number of people were saying surgical masks were useless for stopping the virus, but giving incorrect reasons like that the masks cannot stop the tiny virus particles (it doesn’t need to; it only needs to stop water droplets (as virus particles are not free-floating), which surgical masks do).
But then I saw a disease expert also saying surgical masks do not stop infection. On reading the article though, I find the reasoning is because they don’t make an airtight seal. Which is fair enough but I think it makes the overall comment somewhat misleading; surgical masks may still be useful, they just would just not be a good choice if you’re actually caring for someone with the disease and are likely to be walking into sneeze clouds (in which case even the best masks are not going to be completely effective since droplets getting into your eyes could also spread the disease).
I think the comments about usage over a long time by non professionals is correct though. I have failed to wear any mask correctly for more than an hour or two. Sooner or later I find myself touching exposed parts of my face after having touched the outside of the mask. :smack:
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You’re making a comparison to a flu season with no outside interference against the Hubei area under heavy lock-down which is unlikely in other countries.
We already have a judge in the US blocking quarantines in the US. There is little chance the rest of the world will be able to engage the disease on a scale similar to what China is doing.
You are operating under the mistaken belief that there is any evidence that the lock-down has been effective in any way other than as a public relations move. And while “social distancing” as a means to reduce the speed of spread makes some rational sense, there is in fact no reason to conclude that it, especially started after the virus had probably already spread around the province, has done much to prevent the extent of spread. It mostly closed the barn door after the horse had left.
Best estimates for seasonal influenza in China is an attack rate of about 5.5% overall. The morbidity and mortality is heavily focused on those over 60 and/or with significant pre-existing risk conditions. Relatively few kids gets seriously ill with influenza. But the numbers of kids who have gotten the disease, just relatively mild versions of it? 32% of those 0 to 4 and 19% of those 5 to 14. That’s consistent the global annual attack rate of 20–30% in children
Yet there are very very few confirmed cases of COVID-19 in children under 19. Huh. A viral disease spread by casual human to human not infecting kids most often (even if they are minimally ill from it themselves)? It simply does not happen.
The true number of cases of COVID-19 in Hubei, most mild disease in those under 60 and without significant pre-existing conditions, is unknown. But the number of adults with it is very likely a massive undercount, only labelling the most ill, and the number of kids with it is likely four to five times that number.
Remember that to be tested based on illness in Hubei you have to have pneumonia or worse at this point. One good point from that article (which starts out with a sensationalist lede):
Age matters. And that estimated 1.3% likely actual infection rate within Hubei is considering just adults and extrapolating, not considering that the infection rate (with mild to asymptomatic infection)is likely several-fold higher in children. Given that, we are likely near the range of typical seasonal annual influenza infection rate.
Really not much reason to believe that the lock-down has been all that effective at preventing the extent of spread within the province. It may be slowing it down some. And it plays well.
I’ve seen references to comparing this bug and the flu as a form of “whataboutism”.
They two really aren’t comparable. It distracts from the main point.
Yes, people die from flu all the time. People also die from smoking, bad eating habits, car crashes, etc.
If you want to talk about a sort-of comparable bug, look at SARS. In particular, look how hard it impacted the hospitals where patients went to.
Then multiply the number of cases.
This is a new bug, that we know very little about, with no vaccine and questionable treatments that infects and kills health care workers. That’s the Achilles heel of the matter. If seriously ill people can’t go to a functioning hospital and get care, things will be so much worse than the flu or whatever else you’re thinking about.
The flu we have a lot of knowledge about, vaccines, partial immunity from most strains due to previous exposure, etc. How is this comparable???
n95 masks, which make a better seal, are probably reasonably good at reducing your risk of infection from viruses suspended in airborne water droplets. Surgical masks not so much, because a lot of the air you breathe gets pulled in around the side. They are better for preventing YOU from infecting others, which is what they are designed for. But I’ve seen commentary that even a surgical mask reduces the risk somewhat.
Well, touching your cheek or forehead isn’t very risky, even if your hands are a little contaminated. The risk is mostly from touching your nose, mouth, or eyes.
I routinely wear a surgical face mask when I fly, especially long flights. I do it to keep hydrated, not to block disease transmission, so I don’t make any real attempt to not touch the outside. I also take the mask off and set it aside when I eat and drink and go to the restroom. (the latter because seeing a mask can make others feel uncomfortable.) But it really DOES reduce how much I touch my nose and mouth, and doesn’t increase the amount I touch my eyes. It probably decreases it, because I’m more conscious of it.
In personal terms, I am just sort of watching. I was horrified to learn that the American citizens released from the Diamond Princess cruise ship were returned to the US on an airplane full of healthy people before being ordered to self-quarantine. The stupidity burns. The optimum conditions for surface survival of the virus are low humidity and temperature below 80 degrees F. So it could survive on that airplane, and the belongings of anyone who rode on it, for up to three days. Lovely.
Many of the people I love best are either young, or older, or have asthma, or in some other way vulnerable. I don’t want to see a new virus introduced to their environment.
My concern for the people of China, and now Japan, is quite deep. I remember well the overall sense of betrayal and disorientation I felt when I learned how public policy was failing to protect the population from the AIDs outbreak. When politics gets in the way of proper public health there is a deep emotional toll even to those not immediately affected by the illness. I think the Trump Administration will be even worse.
When people are imagining societal collapse from an infectious disease, comparisons to what we know based on what known is the only rational way forward. This bug is in fact by best estimates of actual infection attack rates behaving much more similarly to influenza than to SARS, both in virulence and infectivity.
You don’t think that healthcare workers are among the tens of thousands who die of influenza in the United States every year??? The morbidity and mortality of those on the frontlines of infectious disease is real even when it is not “news”. Having ANY more than an average year of that would be tragic. And not something that would lead to societal collapse.
I’ve never seen or heard of a healthcare worker in my province getting critically ill or dying from influenza. Maybe it happens but it must be rare and not even close to the rate of death/critical illness reported for medical personnel exposed to, and infected by, the new coronavirus (or SARS).
ETA: The New York Post is not the best source for a cite.