# How concerned should we be ? Retaliatory Iran/Hezbollah response to Soleimani death?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [January 4, 2020, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932 "2020-01-04T13:38:21Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/41 "2020-01-05T20:26:09Z")

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Some of you seem to think that either the US or Iran (or both) is run by a rational being who thinks about consequences. But I go along with those who are afraid that Putin’s puppet wants to start a war because he thinks it gins up his reelection chances.

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**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/42 "2020-01-05T20:30:30Z")

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There is the longer term issue of the potential strengthening of ISIS who this group was fighting and they were mutually killing each other.

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**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/43 "2020-01-05T20:30:33Z")

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> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> Some of you seem to think that either the US or Iran (or both) is run by a rational being who thinks about consequences.

Iran is run by rational beings (plural) who think about consequences.

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**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/44 "2020-01-05T20:32:31Z")

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Some of you seem to think that either the US or Iran (or both) is run by a rational being who thinks about consequences. But I go along with those who are afraid that Putin’s puppet wants to start a war because he thinks it gins up his reelection chances.

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**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/45 "2020-01-05T20:42:29Z")

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> [@KarlGauss](#):
>
> Plus it would hit him in the pocketbook. A win-win for Iran.

If Tramp’s properties are over-insured, why would he care? And he’d have fewer illegals on his payroll. He could paint YUGE! targets on his under-performing resorts, and win.

Plus, any attack would justify a national state of emergency and martial law. He’s daring Iran to make him dictator.

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**Author:** ![Personal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Personal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Personal)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/46 "2020-01-05T21:15:58Z")

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> [@KarlGauss](#):
>
> Plus it would hit him in the pocketbook. A win-win for Iran.

And make him a victim, which we don’t need. How would he react if he thought the attack was on him personally? (Not that his ego doesn’t already believe that he IS the USA)

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**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\
**Post date:** [January 5, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/47 "2020-01-05T22:26:03Z")

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> [@RioRico](#):
>
> If Tramp’s properties are over-insured, why would he care? And he’d have fewer illegals on his payroll. . .

I was thinking that no one would want to stay in a place where there’s more than a background chance of being shredded by a bomb or shot by some martyr.

Beyond that, who wants to check in to a hotel where you’re going to be scanned, probed, and surveilled by security personnel who would fit in well with airport TSA? Because after the first incident, or threat of one, that’s what it’ll be like.

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**Author:** ![pmwgreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@pmwgreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pmwgreen)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/48 "2020-01-06T20:48:43Z")

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> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Remember when Libya bombed a disco full of US servicemen in West Berlin in 1986? Then Reagan bombed Libya in retaliation for that? Then Libya bombed Pan Am flight 103 out of Frankfurt in retaliation for that retaliation?

The Pan Am bombing was in 1988, about two and a half years after the US bombed Libya. Not that the Pan Am bombing wasn’t revenge, but the point is these things take a long time to set up. If something happens in the next few weeks, they must have had it ready to go anyway. And that’s a totally different situation than what most people are thinking.

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**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/49 "2020-01-07T00:01:32Z")

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“Bombing a discotheque” and “bringing down a plane” are both great examples of the kind of stuff Iran is likely _not_ to do.

Iran has made it clear [their goal is far bigger than any one random “terrorist” attack](https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-breathtaking-unravelling-of-the-middle-east-after-suleimanis-death):

> [@](#):
>
> On Monday, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh warned that Iran would retaliate on multiple fronts. “Firing a couple of missiles, hitting a base, or even killing Trump is not valuable enough to compensate for martyr Suleimani’s blood,” he said, on state-controlled television. “The only thing that can compensate for his blood is **the complete removal of America from the region** and taking away their evil from the oppressed people of the region.”

Bolding mine.

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**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/50 "2020-01-07T08:06:52Z")

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> [@Steken](#):
>
> Iran is run by rational beings (plural) who think about consequences.

It would be a mistake to ascribe some sort of bullshit “oriental wisdom” to Iranian leaders. Iran, just like every other country, is run by politicians: some smart, some stupid, some rational, some not, and most of them caring first and foremost about beating their domestic rivals and covering their own asses.

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**Author:** ![MarvinKitFox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@MarvinKitFox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarvinKitFox)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/51 "2020-01-07T08:44:40Z")

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> [@aceplace57](#):
>
> How do you view the current Iran/US conflict?

The terrorists need to be stopped , and stopped NOW.

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**Author:** ![MarvinKitFox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@MarvinKitFox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarvinKitFox)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/52 "2020-01-07T08:46:08Z")

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In case I’m not being clear…

The terrorists that need stopping are those armed with drones, murdering people al over the world, under the pretext of “defending the peace”

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**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/53 "2020-01-07T18:44:58Z")

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> [@Lamoral](#):
>
> Why do you think Iran would engineer some kind of attack in Europe to retaliate for this? Isn’t it clear that the European powers have nothing to do with it?

Exactly.

My uninformed take on the matter is that Iran will attack some US asset in the Middle East, either troops or an embassy.

My guess is that the FBI is already paranoid and has anyone of remotely Iranian origin under surveillance. My understanding is that the USA does not have a huge number of Iranian immigrants, and a good number of those were friends of the Shah, and the Iranians and the Arabs really do not get on well together, so an attack in the USA will be difficult. But not impossible. What and where? A big city., maybe mass transit, as in London and Madrid some years ago.

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**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/54 "2020-01-07T20:20:24Z")

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> [@MarvinKitFox](#):
>
> In case I’m not being clear…
> 
> The terrorists that need stopping are those armed with drones, murdering people al over the world, under the pretext of “defending the peace”

Oh say when Obama did it, the drones were rainbows and unicorns?

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**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/55 "2020-01-07T20:39:04Z")

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Obama is not relevant to the current issue.

Yes, using drones to kill people is wrong. Killing civilians is especially wrong. Obama was wrong to do so (in my opinion).

Trump should not be compared with Obama, or any of the 43 pre-Trump presidents (44 if you insist on double-counting GC). Trump should be compared with a reasonably objective standard for the lowest common denominator of a president who isn’t totally incompetent as a leader or indeed as a human being.

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**Author:** ![eenerms](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cdc98d/32.png) [@eenerms](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eenerms)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/56 "2020-01-07T20:54:03Z")

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> [@Dr.Drake](#):
>
> Obama is not relevant to the current issue.
> 
> Yes, using drones to kill people is wrong. Killing civilians is especially wrong. Obama was wrong to do so (in my opinion).
> 
> Trump should not be compared with Obama, or any of the 43 pre-Trump presidents (44 if you insist on double-counting GC). Trump should be compared with a reasonably objective standard for the lowest common denominator of a president who isn’t totally incompetent as a leader or indeed as a human being.

Disagree

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/57 "2020-01-07T21:09:07Z")

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> [@RickJay](#):
>
> I would imagine it 2would be war, and sadly it would be justified. Soleimani, at least, was a soldier. However much Eric Trump might be a detestable little turd, killing a civilian for the “offense” of being related to a head of state is taking this to an entirely new level.

Wasn’t Quaddafi’s (sp) daughter killed in an airstrike from the USA?

I don’t think the Iranians think about consequences, I think they think about being Macho and getting even.

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**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/58 "2020-01-07T21:39:01Z")

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> [@carnivorousplant](#):
>
> Wasn’t Quaddafi’s (sp) daughter killed in an airstrike from the USA?

Yes.

And two years later an airliner was blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland.

> [@carnivorousplant](#):
>
> I don’t think the Iranians think about consequences, I think they think about being Macho and getting even.

I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

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**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/59 "2020-01-07T21:46:41Z")

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Well here is a question. Lets say an Iranian affiliated group manages to kill Trump (ex. say by a missile shooting down Air force One).

How would the US react?

Well you have to admit many in the US, and around the world, would be cheering and dancing in the streets.

Others would want war.

What side would be right?

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**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\
**Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-concerned-should-we-be-retaliatory-iran-hezbollah-response-to-soleimani-death/845932/60 "2020-01-07T22:13:14Z")

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> [@Urbanredneck](#):
>
> Well here is a question. Lets say an Iranian affiliated group manages to kill Trump (ex. say by a missile shooting down Air force One).
> 
> How would the US react?

Pence would have the people dancing in the streets rounded up, and put their children in cages.

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