# How did Bush win the 2004 election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 9, 2006, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662 "2006-02-09T05:46:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/1 "2006-02-09T05:46:12Z")
Yes I know this is a dead horse. Still, as we are moving away from the ugly election of 2004, it might be easier to discuss it. OK, the results of 2004 were almost identical except for: New Hampshire: Went Bush 2000 and Kerry 2004 New Mexico: Went Gore 2000 and Bush 2004 Iowa: Went Gore 2000 and Bush 2004 So, why did it come down to Ohio? Ohio was an easy target. I lived there from 2000-2004. The economy tanked. But…the ugly episode of same sex marriage was brought into the political arena when the Mass. Supreme Court allowed same sex marriage. I’m thinking this was the one issue that won Ohio for Bush and thus the election. Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico could have flipped and it wouldn’t have mattered. Bush won by getting people in Ohio to vote against same sex marriage and not against the economy in 2004. So, I believe if same sex marriage wasn’t an issue, Ohio goes Kerry and Kerry wins. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 7:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/2 "2006-02-09T07:28:45Z")
Did Ohio have a SSM initiative on the ballot? But you’re falling for a common fallacy-- it’s like when you watch a basketball game and think that the last few minutes are what determined the winner. Every minute counts just as much as the final minutes. And every battleground state could be considered the key. Florida was close last time (actually would have gone to Gore if all the ballots had been recounted), but clearly went to Bus this time. Maybe Florida was the key, not Ohio. Also, you’re basically assuming that Kerry shoudl have won, but something went haywire. Why not look at some states that Kerry narrowly won and ask why they didn’t tip over the Bush? The thing that turned the election was the security issue. In the end, people felt safer with Bush, rightly or wrongly. The ObL tape a few days before the election may have scared enough people… ---
**Author:** ![Bearflag70](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Bearflag70](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bearflag70)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 7:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/3 "2006-02-09T07:55:57Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > The thing that turned the election was the security issue. In the end, people felt safer with Bush, rightly or wrongly. The ObL tape a few days before the election may have scared enough people… That reminds me of all the raised threat levels in the months preceding the election that seemed to have quieted down post-election… for some reason. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/4 "2006-02-09T10:41:03Z")
By [wildly exaggerating the external threat](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=283398). ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/5 "2006-02-09T14:51:12Z")
> [@Bearflag70](#): > > That reminds me of all the raised threat levels in the months preceding the election that seemed to have quieted down post-election… for some reason. No, people here predicted the threat level would be raised before the election, but it wasn’t. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/6 "2006-02-09T15:45:53Z")
Yeah - they sold fear - of terrorists and gay marriage. “Republican - because fear is easier than change” ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/7 "2006-02-09T15:52:38Z")
If the GAO Report is to be believed, then BushCo stole it. First, read the article at > **[Powerful Government Accountability Office report confirms key 2004 stolen...](https://freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1529)** > > As a legal noose appears to be tightening around the Bush/Cheney/Rove inner circle, a shocking government report shows the floor under the legitimacy of their alleged election to the White House is cr Then, if you want to read the GAO Report click on the link within the article. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/8 "2006-02-09T16:12:49Z")
My acrobat reader is currently screwed up, so I can’t read the document right now. I _do know_ about the discrepancy between exit polling and counted ballots, which I believe is a real problem (not necessarily conspiratorial - it could be Democrats have a higher percentage of mistaken votes, because of higher illiteracy, English as a 2nd language, disabilities, etc - at any rate, I think it warrants investigation to find out what the heck is going on so people’s intents are know to be being recorded correctly). Alright. So, someone, please, if you can without this getting heated and it turning into a typical “You’re crazy”/“You’re denying reality” argument - explain why you think the GAO report hasn’t gotten lots of mainstream coverage. Nothing dismissive and snarky, please - I’ll freely admit I’m an idiot upfront to save you the trouble - what makes the GAO report not shocking or newsworthy to the mainstream? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/9 "2006-02-09T16:33:01Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Alright. So, someone, please, if you can without this getting heated and it turning into a typical “You’re crazy”/“You’re denying reality” argument - explain why you think the GAO report hasn’t gotten lots of mainstream coverage. Nothing dismissive and snarky, please - I’ll freely admit I’m an idiot upfront to save you the trouble - what makes the GAO report not shocking or newsworthy to the mainstream? Christ, we’ve been over this ad nausium. The report only claims that there is a possibility of errors having been made, not that errors actually were made. But that’s enough for the wing-nuts to claim Bush “stole” the election. BTW, there is nothing that would prevent errors from having tilted in favor of Kerry. The article also brings up the tired old canard, long since debuinked, about how exit polls proved Kerry should have won in Ohio. We need a sticky here for this so it’s not dredged up every month… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/10 "2006-02-09T18:55:20Z")
Sorry if it’s exasperating. Do you know a search term I could use to find one of the old threads? I can’t seem to find one. Gonna start looking for debunkings of the exit polls being off, too, because my understanding is that the debunking was wrong. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/11 "2006-02-09T19:14:22Z")
> [@bup](#): > > Sorry if it’s exasperating. Do you know a search term I could use to find one of the old threads? I can’t seem to find one. Sorry, I didn’t mean to express exasperation towards you, but the post you were resonding to. I don’t remember the names of the threads, but there are quite a few and some are pretty recent. I’ll do a little searching and see if I can find a good one. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/12 "2006-02-09T19:34:37Z")
Here you go. Enjoy. [GAO report upholds Ohio vote fraud claims](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=343131) Lost of back-and-forth, so you’re going to have to draw your own conclusion. \*\*UnlceBeer \*\*was particular good and analysing the claims, so I’d pay particular attention to his posts. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/13 "2006-02-09T19:53:03Z")
And, before someone resurrects the “exit polls prove Kerry should’ve won” meme, here’s one good artilce explaining what happened from the Washington Post. You can easily google up others. [New Woes Surface in Use of Estimates](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html) Two key interrelated problems are highlighted: 1. Prelimary results leaked out too early, and a server crash prevented a midday update from getting out on time (hence what appeared to be, but wasn’t actually, a surprisingly large swing in exit polling from morning to evening) 2. Early morning exit polling is skewed due to demographics of those voting at that time of day. For example, the early morning participation in the exit poll was 59% female. ---
**Author:** ![Sequent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dbc845/32.png) [@Sequent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sequent)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/14 "2006-02-09T20:15:36Z")
In reality, the Bush win was a combination of several factors, the margin of victory being so close that any one of them could easily be credited with giving Bush his second term. 1. While many people point to the same-sex marriage initiatives as being a key factor, it remains unclear exactly how much of an effect it had nationally. What has become clear is that the Republicans were successfully able to motivate a large sector of “evangelical” Christians to register and vote. The topic of the election was broadly discussed for the first time in many churches across the country. The evangelicals were a clear target for those in the administration, particularly Karl Rove. 2. Americans are historically reluctant to vote against an incumbent during wartime. And when it comes to national security issues, America is a very conservative country. Why that is is open to debate. Conservatives might argue that some liberal policies often don’t “put America first,” and that this is a dangerous posture during wartime. As a confirmed liberal, I would simply say that whenever it comes to war, destruction, and killing people, the Republicans are the obvious leadership choice. :rolleyes: 3. For the second straight election, an already weak Democratic party chose to run a piece of corrugated cardboard instead of an actual human being as their candidate. Americans have proven time and again that they want a President who can pass the Beer Test, irrespective of intellect or other so-called qualifications. Kerry, like Gore, was an easy target, even before he made the crucial “flip-flop” mistake that may very well have cost him the election. The Republicans were also able to turn his service in Vietnam–largely considered one of his chief strengths going into the election–into a liability. A big one. “Swift-boat” became a new verb in our language. Dirty? Yes. Fallacious? Well, if you ask me. But no dirtier than politics in this country has historically been. In addition, the Democratic strategy never really matured beyond a concerted attack on George Bush, which–however well-founded it may have been–wasn’t quite enough to sell the public. Indeed, one could make the point that this did more in the end to motivate conservative voters than it did to galvanize liberals. ---
**Author:** ![rjung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/45deac/32.png) [@rjung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rjung)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/15 "2006-02-09T20:35:33Z")
**How did Bush win the 2004 election?** Fears, queers, and smears. (Terrorism, gay marriage, and Swift-Boating John Kerry) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/16 "2006-02-09T20:38:07Z")
AKA the “God, Guns, and Gays” faction. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/17 "2006-02-09T20:57:57Z")
[http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/a\_corrupted\_election/](http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/a_corrupted_election/) [http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep](http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep) > [@John Mace](#): > > The article also brings up the tired old canard, long since debuinked, about how exit polls proved Kerry should have won in Ohio. :dubious: Cite, there? 'Cause it ain’t been “debunked” in **this** forum! Nor is any convincing “debunking” mentioned here: [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004\_U.S.\_presidential\_election\_controversy\_and\_irregularities](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_U.S._presidential_election_controversy_and_irregularities) Nor here: [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004\_U.S.\_presidential\_election\_controversy%2C\_exit\_polls](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_U.S._presidential_election_controversy%2C_exit_polls) Nor in the _Washington Post_ article you cited. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/18 "2006-02-09T21:04:07Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Nor in the _Washington Post_ article you cited. You’d only come to that conclusion if you refuse to believe the article. > [@](#): > > On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening. The article perfectly well explains why early data differed significantly from the final result, which is what the conspiracy theorists were bitching about. So, if that article doesn’t debunk the claim, what’s your convincing evidence that the claim ever had any merit? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/19 "2006-02-09T21:06:34Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > Here you go. Enjoy. > > [GAO report upholds Ohio vote fraud claims](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=343131) > > Lost of back-and-forth, so you’re going to have to draw your own conclusion. \*\*UnlceBeer \*\*was particular good and analysing the claims, so I’d pay particular attention to his posts. Yeah. Hard to read thread. Not a loaded question: what sort of evidence do you (or anybody) think would turn up if there had been actual voter fraud? That’s the frustrating thing for me. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2006, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662/20 "2006-02-09T21:15:02Z")
And if you don’t believe that info, here’s another article from Slate that goes a bit deeper, and lays the blame on the media outlets that aren’t careful enough with the data they get. > [@](#): > > [The official excuses for the bad exit poll numbers don’t cut it.](http://www.slate.com/id/2109310) > > Yet it is Lenski [representing an exit poll company] and the networks who are at fault for not telling viewers—and bloggers—the deeper meaning of exit poll data. The business of calling an election is as much an art as it is a science, and they’ve not been candid about that. In some elections, the exit-poll data is good enough that combining it with the secret sauce of computer models and calculations will produce a solid election projection before the polls close. In other cases, the exit-poll data can clash with what the wizards expected to see, and they want to wait for actual vote tabulations before predicting a winner. In other words, not all exit polls are created equal. Sure, there’s some finger pointing back and forth between the media and the polling folks, but both agree that the exit poll numbers, as reported by the media, were the problem, not the actual results at the end of the day. It’s just a matter of whom you want to blame. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-bush-win-the-2004-election/343662.md?page=2)