# How did Turner (R) win Weiner's vacated seat in the NY 9th district? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2011, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282 "2011-09-14T13:18:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2011, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/41 "2011-09-16T20:16:22Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > I think it was a perfect storm, and probably not the most predictive nationally; but to say the district is “marginally Democrat” is just an absolute, complete, utter lie. It has been held by a Democrat since before I was born, hell since _before my mother could vote_ and has a 3-to-1 ratio of registered Democrats to Republicans. > > That being said, the GOP win here was a perfect storm that was the result of: > > 1. A disgraced Democrat congressman being forced to resign, which definitely hurts a little bit **(although throughout Weiner’s troubles I remember various polls coming out showing more than 50% of his constituents thought he shouldn’t resign.)** > > 2. A weak Democratic candidate. > > 3. A fairly strong GOP candidate who received public endorsement and support from various prominent Democrats. > > 4. A district that is disproportionately concerned about the U.S.'s position on Israel, and a campaign that successfully highlighted this issue in a way to make voters feel they needed to vote Republican to be voting pro-Israel in this one. > > 5. The general weakness of the Democratic party right now nationally, especially President Obama’s weak approval ratings. > > In a district like the NY 9th that is so overwhelmingly Democrat, not one of those issues above would be enough to have seen this result, it really did require all of them. I do not live in said district and I’m unaware of how the local politics are run. But as an outside observer who likes to follow these things, I agree with your post. What you say here could be the same for many districts across the nation. Sometimes people just need a reason to vote for ‘the other guy’, and sometimes people really do want to send a message. The part I bolded is what is most troubling for Dems. You’d think the voters would _want_ a reason to vote for the new Democrat in town. Perhaps they did and couldn’t find it. While the Democratic candidate was Jewish, I’m going to venture a guess that _some_ constituents thought that he didn’t criticize Obama enough on Israel. It’s like the Dems picked out a token observant Jew or something. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2011, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/42 "2011-09-16T20:22:12Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > So yeah, > > 1. Unpopular (D) president > 2. Lots of angry orthodox Jews (GZ Mosque, the whole recognizing Palestine thing, gay marriage bill in NY) > 3. Scandal attached to previous (D) incumbent > 4. Demographically odd district that registers lots of Dems but doesn’t really match traditional Dem districts > 5. Weak (D) candidate > > How you assign weights to these is more a reflection of your own political hopes than any empirical study, IMO. For the general electorate: 1. Unpopular president 2. n/a 3. …not that anyone cares about 4. Ditto 5. Not exactly a weak candidate, but a possible stronger alternative, plus a-z: economy - school funding, taxes, bailout bills, job market, college costs, _everything_ And if you take out just one strong voting bloc - Jews, Latinos, women (groups that seem more likely to be swing voters here) - and find that they’re largely discontent with more than issue and are willing to look at ‘the other guy’ (or just stay home), then I’d say another not-so-perfect-and-just-painfully-obvious storm could happen for next election. Unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![Farmer\_Jane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Farmer\_Jane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Farmer_Jane)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2011, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/43 "2011-09-16T20:25:50Z")
> [@Arkcon](#): > > Many pundits see this as a blanket rejection of Obama. It think that, while it may have some truth to it is ignoring a major factor, not mentioned here yet. When there’s a scandal, people vote the OTHER party. Its happened often enough, I can’t believe everyone is neglecting to mention it. Its not that many people actually care what Weiner did, or blames the Democrats for it. But the whole procedure just leaves them with a bad taste, and they just switch to “the other guy”, just to seem to be doing something. It could very well be blanket rejection of Obama. If Weprin were more critical of the administration (and he would’ve lost funding for that, but let’s just pretend like it was an option), he may have won. Remember when congressional candidates were telling Bush to NOT come stump for them in 2006? There just hasn’t been a distancing from Obama from Democrats. Not really. Someone makes a fuss when this or that bill is being passed but that’s it. No one wants to be a traitor and there aren’t any Democrats who openly criticize Obama. Worse, they attempt to smooth over _everything_. No Democrat in office wants to be aligned with the Tea Party or Republicans, but for some of the more progressive bunch, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that no table in the cafeteria looks comfortable right now. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2011, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/44 "2011-09-16T23:17:49Z")
You want to know what did it? I don’t live in the district, but I am a New Yorker, and I heard what did it today. Ed Koch did it. He’s not happy with Obama’s stance on Israel, and he went and campaigned hard for the Republican on that stance. Especially to people above 40, especially to Jewish people above 40, Mr. Koch is someone you listen to and trust. Sadly for the rest of us, he went a little loopy after 9/11… like Dennis Miller. For the Republican to get him campaigning for him? That’s five percentage points. Easy. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2011, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/45 "2011-09-17T00:12:21Z")
Please don’t forget that Israel or not the Jewish vote is overwhelmingly Democrat-probably the most reliable Democratic bloc after blacks. And in this district Weiner won last year with sixty percent of the vote and in 2008 with _93 percent_ of the vote ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2011, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/46 "2011-09-17T00:35:54Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Please don’t forget that Israel or not the Jewish vote is overwhelmingly Democrat-probably the most reliable Democratic bloc after blacks. > > And in this district Weiner won last year with sixty percent of the vote and in 2008 with _93 percent_ of the vote There wasn’t a Republican party candidate in 2008, so that 93% might be a tad misleading. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2011, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282/47 "2011-09-17T00:38:37Z")
> [@Algorithm](#): > > There wasn’t a Republican party candidate in 2008, so that 93% might be a tad misleading. It means he was practically unopposed-that the Republicans didn’t think it was a winnable district. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-did-turner-r-win-weiners-vacated-seat-in-the-ny-9th-district/596282.md?page=2)