Yeah, but I’m talking of a nuclear war with alot of fervor, I don’t see that going around.
People say things and don’t mean it.
Yes, but in a democracy, you can see that a large majority don’t really want to go along with it, and can pursuade the rest not to or to change their mind, in a dictatorship, theres less room for that avenue to be explored or for independent organisations to keep a check on government policy.
Hijack:
I’ve seen that quote before, but it’s always struck me as apocryphal. I have a hard time imagining Goering referring to Germany’s system as a fascist “dictatorship.” Is there a source on that quote? Or some context for it?
Just curious. I certainly agree that the observation is valid, whether or not it was Goering who made it.
Never mind. I see snopes is already on the case. Looks like the quote is accurate, more or less.
We got along O.K. without Iraq’s oil during the early 90’s, and they were a far larger supplier of oil then the Iranians. An embargo might raise prices a bit, but I doubt it would be devestating, and would be mitigated by upping production in other areas. I’m certain it would be far more devestating to Iran then to the embargoing countries anyhow, as oil accounts for 80% of their exports. As was already pointed out, it would be somewhat difficult to engineer a complete embargo, but I think that the EU, Japan and Russia could be talked into it, which might provide a big enough stick.
Probably not a lot of belivable polls coming out of Iran to support one view or the other, but I would be greatly suprised if the popular opinion there didn’t support anti-Israeli groups like Hezbollah. I don’t think it’s just the mullahs. Your right that a popular reformist gov’t would probably be less anti-american then the current one.
To emphisise what Tamerlane already said, Sistani is far from a secularist.
From here
Again, I agree, it’s probably better for a democracy to have nukes then a totalitarian society to have them (though again I note that our limited history with nuclear weapons doesn’t support this belief). But you said:
It’s the “no problem” thing that I think a lot of people don’t agree with you on. While we may prefer that if nukes are spreading to other countries, we’d rather they spread to democracies then to totalitarian regeimes, I think most people would prefere there be no proliferation whatsoever.
Are you sure? This list of top oil exporting nations – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum#Top_petroleum_producing_countries – puts Iran fourth, behind Saudia Arabia, Russia, and Norway. Iraq didn’t even make the list. (But that might be because this list is based on 2003 figures, and Iraq’s oil industry has been a basket case since the war.)
First I’d like to know what part economic isolation played in the ending of the Soviet Union. I figure not much, if at all.
Then I’d like to know why it’s any of our business how Iran is run.
:dubious: It’s everybody’s business how every country is run, Futile. Do we have to go over this again? If I’m entitled to have any political opinions at all, why should that stop at my own country’s borders? We’re all human, aren’t we?
There’s a difference between having an opinion on how it’s run and plotting on how best to cause economic and social collapse in a country in order to force it to adhere to our opinion on how their country should be run.
You’re about a year too late. Iran has already begun privatizing and liberalizing their economy. About $6 billion in state industry has been sold off to private firms. Additionally, they are in the process of allowing foreign telecom companies to compete in the domestic market.
do you think it will make a difference to point out fact to Liam, especially ones which dent his rather naieve worldview?
Who are you? You can read my mind now? I’m glad they’re liberalising their economy. Thats good progress, can anyone tell me if the population is the most pro Western in the region?
Because the way Iran is run is detremental towards our own security in the long term.
Techonogical upgrades, which increases efficiency, and saves money, take that away, and eventually it eats away at GDP, since all industry is owned by the State. Why do you think North Korea is still in the 1960s technologically?
They’re about equal, Iran [URL=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/oil.htm in 2002
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had about 3.7 mb/d while Iraq in '89 (their last year before the invasion of Kuwait) was at about 3.5mb/d. I’d still hold the impact of the Iraqi embargo to be greater though, since I presume 3.5 mb/d was a much larger share of the world supply back in '89, before China’s runaway economic growth.
So an embargo is economically feasable, though possibly not politically so.
The most pro Western? Are we counting Israel? Turkey? They’re probably one of the more pro-Western, right up there with some of the Gulf States, but it’s relative. They like Western fashions and liberties, but that doesn’t mean they want Westerners mucking up their economy, invading them “for their own good,” or staging coups. Like pretty much any other society, attacks on them will only serve a rally around the flag purpose - especially in a region with extremely negative experiences of Western interference in domestic affairs.
And the way that the US has been run has been extremely detrimental to Iran’s security and society. Shouldn’t it work both ways then? Does Iran get a free pass to figure out a way to cause a collapse of United States government? Of course not.
Iran is not a real threat to the US, nor has it ever been one. It probably never will be one, either. Iran’s rhetoric has never really matched its actions.
Because they’ve made nice little 21st century bombs and assembled the biggest concentration of conventional artilary within range of a major capital that I can think of?
The problem with directing the course of peoples or nations is that you work with too many variables of too many differing weights. The small push in one direction you intended can very easily cascade out of your control. You then compensate to rein it in but again, unknown variables and weights push the correction in the wrong direction or trigger the emergence of new unknowns which make it even harder to control.
It’s like juggling smoke.
why should it matter if the populace is “pro-western”? I’d hope that the populace is pro-Iran first and foremost. Making everyone into good little capitalists isn’t necessarily going to ease the turmoil in the region, nor increase the standard of living for the average Iranian.
Because the government likes to keep it’s populace there? North Korea’s technological status has more to do with the Personality cult Kim Jong Il runs rather than any failing on the part of socialism.
Don’t underestimate the effects of blue jeans and Rock and Roll when it comes to th collapse of ‘The Evil Empire.’
Wow, much like Khomenism.