# How do I counter the the flu v COVID-19 argument? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 13, 2020, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427 "2020-03-13T18:15:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/81 "2020-03-16T05:37:34Z")
As a liberal, I’d be delighted if this blew over quickly and with little of the predicted illness and death. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 9:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/82 "2020-03-16T09:42:39Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I’ve wondered before if there is a name for this fallacy. The fallacy of, If you don’t prevent it, you’re incompetent - and if you do act to prevent it, and it is prevented, then it was unnecessary. Luckily we have a control group this time, as the UK has decided to do nothing and allow “normal [herd immunity](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19)” to develop, even if it kills tens or hundreds of thousands. So we will know what happens if you do nothing. We will remember them fondly, thanks you very much, Boris. Perhaps the Darwin Award will we awarded to a colletive this time. They can have my thoughts, my prayers and a toast to their brave sacrifice. For science, whodda thunk! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/83 "2020-03-16T12:38:46Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > Personally I think we’re going overboard. Massachusetts just closed down bars/restaurants starting Tuesday and schools are going to be closed for a month. A non-trivial number of people are going to go through hardship because of this. This is certainly the oddest situation like this in my lifetime. I mean, this sort of utter panic didn’t happen with SARS, which is of course another coronavirus that was capable of killing people with alarming efficiency. The case of Italy suggests that this is not some overreaction; the numbers would suggest that the pandemic is going to kill a LOT of people there. Conversely, it seems under control in some places, like South Korea and Japan. What is certain is this; this thing is going to hurt people one way or another. however bad the virus gets, the world’s economy, which has been riding high for ten years, is going to go into a severe recession. The reasons for that are many, and that story is yet to be fully told, but it’s happening, and that worries me as much as the virus does. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/84 "2020-03-16T13:33:02Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > Luckily we have a control group this time, as the UK has decided to do nothing and allow “normal [herd immunity](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19)” to develop, even if it kills tens or hundreds of thousands. So we will know what happens if you do nothing. We will remember them fondly, thanks you very much, Boris. > Perhaps the Darwin Award will we awarded to a colletive this time. They can have my thoughts, my prayers and a toast to their brave sacrifice. For science, whodda thunk! [Coronavirus: Man in Japan tests positive again after recovering from illness](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-test-positive-recover-a9404056.html) Goodbye herd immunity… ---
**Author:** ![postpic200](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@postpic200](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/postpic200)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/85 "2020-03-16T14:11:52Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > I have to admit when someone posts over and over and over again on Facebook that the Flu kills 12,000-61,000 people a year and this COVID-19 thing is overblown by the media and we are all needlessly panicking, I have trouble disagreeing with those numbers. Often the argument is coupled with the “media is trying to discredit Trump” charge which makes my back bristle even more. > > Here are the arguments I have made so far, is there a better one? > > -The infection rate appears to be higher > -So far the death rate is higher > -Its possible way more than 40,000 people will die > > I have a feeling there is a better argument out there that these people are missing. Is there one? While I am a Trump supporter, for many reasons which I won’t go into. Covid-19 overall death rate is currently at 2.3 percent while the flu has a death rate of .01 percent. Meaning for every 10,000 people infected with the flu you can expect 1 death with Covid-19 with the same 10,000 people infected you can expect 230 deaths. So with the flu assuming EVERYONE in the US get infected all 330 million you’d expect about 33,000 deaths with the Covid-19 you’d expect 7,590,000 deaths. Also without precautions it could take as little as 2 MONTHS for Covid-19 to infect the entire world. Really we’re trying to buy time, First we don’t want to overwhelm our medical facilities having Covid-19 take a year or two to infect everyone is far better than it taking 2 months. 2. It give us time to make a vaccine, the first one should in testing in human test by April. But we need time and that’s what we’re trying to buy, time. So WASH YOU STUPID HANDS PEOPLE. If you get sick STAY HOME. And please stop buy all the toilet paper, it makes you look dumb. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/86 "2020-03-16T15:22:35Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > You are overly fixated on the mortality directly caused by COVID-19. Experts who are pushing for draconian measures are focused more on hospital bed capacity since the indirect effects of COVID-19 are far scarier. > > Let’s say you, the individual who isn’t at a high risk of dying from COVID-19, gets into a serious car accident in the next two weeks. Under normal circumstances, you’d be able to receive good medical treatment and make a full recovery. But under a rampant COVID-19 scenario, you aren’t going to get good medical treatment. It may take an extra 30 minutes for an ambulance to get you to an ER, since EMT’s are too busy transporting COVID-19 victims. If you need a ventilator once you get to the ER, well, good luck with that! The care you will receive will be subpar and you may end up dying, but you won’t be counted in the COVID-19 statistics. > > So as you’re crunching numbers to find out the value of an average COVID-19 fatality, crunch the numbers for all the people who die indirectly because of COVID-19. And also crunch the numbers for all the people who end up with lifelong complications that could have been avoided if their medical care hadn’t been impacted by COVID-19. > > [The two of us have wrangled over this topic in the past, back when you had a different username.](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=11114266&postcount=31) Do you still believe that dead people represent savings rather than costs on society, as you did back then? Let me remind you that a lot of those dead people are providing valuable, tangible services to others. Letting them die is wasteful. This is true even if they are 81. > > Quite a few of the guys calling the shots right now in this country are damn-near close to 81. Again, and I feel I must keep placing the disclaimer, I am all for people living long lives and enjoying their retirement, but your argument is absurd. Elderly people largely do not contribute and are a drain on society’s resources. If there is a conflict, say a 22 year old who was just in a car accident, versus a 89 year old on a ventilator because of Covid-19, and there was no other way to resolve it, I treat the 22 year old in a heartbeat and give the 89 year old palliative care. Yes, they are valuable and deserve respect, made in the image of God and whatnot. We make these choices all of the time. 89 year olds are not put on a heart transplant list, whether or not we have UHC. Again, what steps would we take if we had the Black Death of the 1300s facing us? If this progresses, in a couple of weeks, people will be without food. Society will start to break down. We should take fewer steps IF, and I state IF, this is largely only hastening elderly people’s natural demise. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/87 "2020-03-16T15:26:11Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > [Coronavirus: Man in Japan tests positive again after recovering from illness](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-test-positive-recover-a9404056.html) > > Goodbye herd immunity… Re-infection is something that can happen with other diseases too, especially (but not exclusively) among the elderly and people with compromised immune systems. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/88 "2020-03-16T15:46:56Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Again, and I feel I must keep placing the disclaimer, I am all for people living long lives and enjoying their retirement, but your argument is absurd. Elderly people largely do not contribute and are a drain on society’s resources. > > If there is a conflict, say a 22 year old who was just in a car accident, versus a 89 year old on a ventilator because of Covid-19, and there was no other way to resolve it, I treat the 22 year old in a heartbeat and give the 89 year old palliative care. Yes, they are valuable and deserve respect, made in the image of God and whatnot. > > We make these choices all of the time. 89 year olds are not put on a heart transplant list, whether or not we have UHC. > > Again, what steps would we take if we had the Black Death of the 1300s facing us? If this progresses, in a couple of weeks, people will be without food. Society will start to break down. We should take fewer steps IF, and I state IF, this is largely only hastening elderly people’s natural demise. For the last time: It isn’t just elderly people who are dying from this. And the costs of this thing go beyond simple mortality. Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/89 "2020-03-16T15:48:46Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > If there is a conflict, say a 22 year old who was just in a car accident, versus a 89 year old on a ventilator because of Covid-19, and there was no other way to resolve it, I treat the 22 year old in a heartbeat and give the 89 year old palliative care. Yes, they are valuable and deserve respect, made in the image of God and whatnot. That’s a strawman. The choices won’t be that stark. It’ll be a 22 year old who is so beat up he probably won’t survive, anyway, and a 72 year old woman who still walks 5 miles a day, does Yoga, and watches her grandchildren so that her daughter, a doctor, can save lives. Or a 45 year old alcoholic smoker who is currently unemployed but has a college degree vs a 63 year old who plans to retire at 65 and is in good health. And people are going to be making these decisions in seconds, with no way to assess anything but basic demographics. Even IF there was a way to perfectly calculate the worth of each life, they won’t have the information and will probably make the wrong call as often as the right one. Look, “especially dangerous to thsoe over 60, and those with certain conditions” does NOT mean “only kills 89-year old grannies that were half way out the door anyway”. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/90 "2020-03-16T16:43:35Z")
> [@monstro](#): > > I have been able to get people thinking by asking them why they think China and Italy have chosen to cripple their own economies and imprison their own people. What insane leader would go to such extremes just to discredit Trump? It makes no sense. > > Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk I heard Glenn Beck (!) trying to get people to take it seriously on the radio this morning using similar logic. “If you think this is an anti-Trump hoax, why are other countries shutting down? You think they care who the President is?” ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/91 "2020-03-16T16:46:09Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > That’s a strawman. The choices won’t be that stark. It’ll be a 22 year old who is so beat up he probably won’t survive, anyway, and a 72 year old woman who still walks 5 miles a day, does Yoga, and watches her grandchildren so that her daughter, a doctor, can save lives. Or a 45 year old alcoholic smoker who is currently unemployed but has a college degree vs a 63 year old who plans to retire at 65 and is in good health. And people are going to be making these decisions in seconds, with no way to assess anything but basic demographics. Even IF there was a way to perfectly calculate the worth of each life, they won’t have the information and will probably make the wrong call as often as the right one. > > Look, “especially dangerous to thsoe over 60, and those with certain conditions” does NOT mean “only kills 89-year old grannies that were half way out the door anyway”. Thank you. I am in my 40s, but I am pretty sick of hearing people let out a sigh of relief that “only” old people are dying. My boss is one of these “old” people. I have several coworkers who are “old”. My closest friend is 82. All of these people are still net contributers to society. Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/92 "2020-03-16T17:06:44Z")
It’s clear than many of us on SDMB are older, and most are working, babysitting grandkids, helping an even older relative, subsidizing younger adults’ education and housing, and other actions. It’s also the case that many of us paid into the social and economic services futures for decades. Society is welcome to give me that money back right now if it doesn’t wish to take care of me. I’ll take a lump sum, with the interest earned. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/93 "2020-03-16T17:31:37Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > [Coronavirus: Man in Japan tests positive again after recovering from illness](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-coronavirus-test-positive-recover-a9404056.html) > > Goodbye herd immunity… I think the UK is making an epic mistake, not necessarily in assuming that there will be heard immunity but in its assumption that its national health system can withstand what, in all likelihood, will be a tidal wave of patients rushing to the hospitals. FFS, Italy’s approach was essentially a ‘herd immunity’ response, even if that’s not necessarily what Italians were thinking when they were initially so nonchalant about the epidemic. We’ve seen what happens to a national health system with that approach - it gets overwhelmed. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/94 "2020-03-16T17:37:45Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Re-infection is something that can happen with other diseases too, especially (but not exclusively) among the elderly and people with compromised immune systems. It’s about the viral load, which can seem small enough to make people (and even tests) think that the virus is gone. Someone might have a small viral load, but still have the virus. If they’re immuno-compromised, the small viral load gradually comes back. Older people generally have weaker immune systems. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/95 "2020-03-16T18:32:54Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > That’s a strawman. The choices won’t be that stark. It’ll be a 22 year old who is so beat up he probably won’t survive, anyway, and a 72 year old woman who still walks 5 miles a day, does Yoga, and watches her grandchildren so that her daughter, a doctor, can save lives. Or a 45 year old alcoholic smoker who is currently unemployed but has a college degree vs a 63 year old who plans to retire at 65 and is in good health. And people are going to be making these decisions in seconds, with no way to assess anything but basic demographics. Even IF there was a way to perfectly calculate the worth of each life, they won’t have the information and will probably make the wrong call as often as the right one. > > Look, “especially dangerous to thsoe over 60, and those with certain conditions” does NOT mean “only kills 89-year old grannies that were half way out the door anyway”. Of course. I was speaking in generalities. But by all means, let’s do this to “contain” the panic: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/8ivDLNNUWTs/maxresdefault.jpg "The Stand Bring out your dead Monster Shouter") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ivDLNNUWTs) ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/96 "2020-03-16T18:34:20Z")
Oh, and yes, I know that my post was from The Stand, but this shit is going down that road if we don’t stop pretending that this is like the Black Death. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/97 "2020-03-16T19:08:38Z")
Well at least you let us know how serious you are about having a conversation about this. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/98 "2020-03-16T19:14:54Z")
You know what will make people panic? Watching what is happening in Italy, Spanish, and Iran while your own country does nothing but talk about herd immunity and acceptable losses. That is what is happening in the UK right now, and people are understandably freaking out. People have eyes and ears. They have access to all the information in the world right now. So they are going to panic. So you don’t set policy around keeping people from panicking. Policy should be based on what works now and into the foreseeable future, not on what feels good in this singular moment in time. Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/99 "2020-03-16T19:36:04Z")
> [@Chingon](#): > > Well at least you let us know how serious you are about having a conversation about this. Exactly right. He, once again, won’t answer questions or attempt to refute opposing arguments. But linking to poor quality YouTube videos. That he can do. ---
**Author:** ![MandaJo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac91a4/32.png) [@MandaJo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MandaJo)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/100 "2020-03-16T20:56:52Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Oh, and yes, I know that my post was from The Stand, but this shit is going down that road if we don’t stop pretending that this is like the Black Death. I’m not being cute, but I never click on YouTube links and I have never seen nor read the Stand. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427.md?page=6)