# How do I counter the the flu v COVID-19 argument? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 13, 2020, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427 "2020-03-13T18:15:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 17
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427/17 "2020-03-13T20:59:39Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > …I have a feeling there is a better argument out there that these people are missing. Is there one? Two reasons: [ul] [li]The mortality rate for COVID-19 is at least an order of magnitude greater than that of influenza.[/li][li]The number of cases of COVID-19 are increasing exponentially.[/li][/ul] Note that “exponentially” is not a synonym for “a lot.” It’s a mathematical term. [When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn’t](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/) > [@](#): > > There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on. > > Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?” > > The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there. The problem isn’t the current number of cases. It’s how many cases we will have in a few weeks or months. More detail here: [Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now](https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca) --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-i-counter-the-the-flu-v-covid-19-argument/849427)._