# How do news outlets decide when to "call" an election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [March 11, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281 "2020-03-11T17:12:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![WildaBeast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wildabeast/32/6_2.png) [@WildaBeast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WildaBeast)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/1 "2020-03-11T17:12:12Z")
With Biden winning the Michigan primary yesterday, I’ve been seeing complaints on social media from Bernie Sanders supporters complaining that MSNBC called the election for Biden while there were still people at some polling places waiting in line to vote. They’re claiming that by calling the election when they did MSNBC influenced the result. I think that’s… unlikely, to put it nicely. I think that by they time they called it, it was mathematically impossible (or at least so improbable that for all intents and purposes the same as impossible) for those remaining voters to actually change the outcome, even if 100% of them were planning on voting for Sanders (which itself would be extremely improbable). But how do they decide when to call it, exactly? Is there some mathematical formula that they use? Is that formula published, of something that they consider proprietary? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/2 "2020-03-11T17:53:13Z")
> [@](#): > > These networks use what are called “decision desks,” which employ dozens of statisticians and pollsters to project winners based on their analyses and the new organizations’ proprietary statistical models, according to the New York Times. > > They’re fueled by data from three main sources: > > 1. Exit poll interviews with voters, conducted by Edison Research, which provide snapshots of voter turnout in different parts of the country throughout the day. The polls capture voter demographics and reasons for supporting a candidate, among other details. > 2. Vote counts by precinct—the smallest level election results are reported at—which are released by election officials. > 3. Votes by county, which are tabulated by the Associated Press. > **[How do networks call the election before all the votes are counted?](https://qz.com/829710/how-do-networks-call-the-election-before-all-the-votes-are-counted)** > > News networks use these systems to call the election before voters in parts of the country have even cast their ballots. If they called an election before the polls were closed that sounds like exit polls. ---
**Author:** ![WildaBeast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wildabeast/32/6_2.png) [@WildaBeast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WildaBeast)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/3 "2020-03-11T18:02:45Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > If they called an election before the polls were closed that sounds like exit polls. From how I understand it, it was called after the time when the polls officially closed, but since people who were in line before closing time are still allowed to vote, some people at a few polling places with long lines still hadn’t voted yet. ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/4 "2020-03-11T18:02:54Z")
AFAIK, networks have pledged to not call any races until the polls close, even if the winner is obvious. IIRC, it dates back to 1972, when they were calling states for Nixon before the polls closed in the west. The complaint was it would depress voter turnout in non-presidential races, so they voluntarily decided to hold off even if they knew the result. Note that most states allow people to vote if they’re on line before the deadline. So there will be some votes cast after they call it, but those aren’t considered a problem. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/5 "2020-03-11T18:48:28Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > AFAIK, networks have pledged to not call any races until the polls close, even if the winner is obvious. IIRC, it dates back to 1972, when they were calling states for Nixon before the polls closed in the west. The complaint was it would depress voter turnout in non-presidential races, so they voluntarily decided to hold off even if they knew the result. > > Note that most states allow people to vote if they’re on line before the deadline. So there will be some votes cast after they call it, but those aren’t considered a problem. They’re also holding off longer on close races after 2000 Florida debacle. Regarding people still in line, that’s not a big of an issue for the Democratic Primary. The contests are not winner-take-all, so the margins matter. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/6 "2020-03-11T18:59:46Z")
In the 2012 election, the head of the RNC (whose name I have forgotten) just about blew a gasket when Fox of all people called Ohio for Obama at a time in the evening when Romney still had a lead in the already tallied votes. They were right of course. I do not know the details, but it is going to go roughly like this: The precincts already counted were 50.1% for Romney, but were 50.9% for McCain four years earlier, so we assume the Republican vote is falling off by .8%. The precincts not yet counted were 51.3% for Obama 4 years ago so we assume they will go by 52.1% for Obama this time. Add it up and Obama will have at least 51% of the vote. This ignores minor parties of course. With all the data they have now, they could possibly do a finer-grained analysis. Maybe estimate the votes of blacks, of suburban women, of urban men, that sort of thing. I don’t know how much state-by-state data they have and whether they use it. ---
**Author:** ![KneadToKnow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kneadtoknow/32/3999_2.png) [@KneadToKnow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KneadToKnow)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/7 "2020-03-11T19:44:48Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > They’re also holding off longer on close races after 2000 Florida debacle. Part of that debacle was that Florida got called for Gore before all of Florida had finished voting. It’s easy to forget that parts of the panhandle are in the Central time zone. ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/8 "2020-03-11T19:58:36Z")
> [@Hari\_Seldon](#): > > In the 2012 election, the head of the RNC (whose name I have forgotten) just about blew a gasket when Fox of all people called Ohio for Obama at a time in the evening when Romney still had a lead in the already tallied votes. They were right of course. That was Karl Rove. Here’s a [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk) of him bitching that Ohio had been called. Includes the camera following Megyn Kelly walking down the hallway to interview the Fox News statisticians who made the call. ---
**Author:** ![mcgato](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ac8455/32.png) [@mcgato](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mcgato)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2020, 12:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/9 "2020-03-12T12:02:35Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#): > > That was Karl Rove. Here’s a [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk) of him bitching that Ohio had been called. Includes the camera following Megyn Kelly walking down the hallway to interview the Fox News statisticians who made the call. [There is this article](https://truthout.org/articles/anonymous-karl-rove-and-2012-election-fix/), among others that goes into the theory that the Anonymous group stopped Rove from stealing the Ohio election, just as he had in 2004. Interesting read, though little can be substantiated. ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2020, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-news-outlets-decide-when-to-call-an-election/849281/10 "2020-03-13T16:34:02Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > AFAIK, networks have pledged to not call any races until the polls close, even if the winner is obvious. IIRC, it dates back to 1972, when they were calling states for Nixon before the polls closed in the west. The complaint was it would depress voter turnout in non-presidential races, so they voluntarily decided to hold off even if they knew the result. Nitpick: I believe it was 1980, when NBC called the race for Reagan at 8:15 Eastern time (5:15 on the west coast) and Carter conceded at 9:50 (6:50) when polls were still open for another hour. People argued about the effect of downballot races. The GOP picked up senate seats in Washington and Alaska, part of a 12-seat pickup that flipped the senate for the first time in 26 years. > [@Ballotpedia](#): > > [During the 1980 presidential contest,](https://ballotpedia.org/Exit_polling) NBC used exit polling data to project Ronald Reagan’s victory over Jimmy Carter three hours before all polls had closed (polls on the West Coast were still open at the time NBC announced its projection). Controversy ensued as some argued that NBC’s projection hampered voter turnout in those states where polls were still open. Congress held hearings on the matter, and news networks agreed to refrain from projecting states’ winners until polls had closed in that state.