# How do people become so confused about the odds? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 4, 2016, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180 "2016-01-04T21:37:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/21 "2016-01-05T00:42:07Z")
But if nobody ignored the odds and went for it, nobody would make it. Somebody has to try or nobody will succeed. The question isn’t the odds, it’s what is the cost of trying and is it worth risking, given the odds. If you love what you’re doing and won’t feel like a total failure if you do it without making it to the big-time, perhaps it is worth trying to make it. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/22 "2016-01-05T00:48:56Z")
I know a lot of PARENTS who have made that mistake - overinvesting in the idea that their kid will get a scholarship. My daughter was also a gymnast - though a very bad one (we had her in more so she could develop balance and body awareness, not to complete - she was never competitive), but I spent several years listening to the gym parents talk scholarship. And I’ve heard it from hockey moms and baseball moms, too. And it isn’t much better on the academic side, where parents overestimate their kid’s ability to get a free ride at a great school. Since saving for college needs to start WAY before you know if your kid is scholarship material - and scholarships are going to be limiting anyway - you need to go to the school willing to pay your way. I did my first college tour with my daughter - a Div III school, so no scholarships. There were several athletes on our tour being recruited by the school - their parents were shocked to hear there was no money attached to the recruitment. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/23 "2016-01-05T01:02:16Z")
> [@BrightSunshine](#): > > My brother was a wanna be singer. (He sells insurance now.) From observing him and his cohorts, most of the people who want to “make it big” in entertainment are not very good at math, have overinflated sense of self, and like the perceived prestige of being an “artist”. Of course, that also describes most of the people who **do** make it big in entertainment. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/24 "2016-01-05T01:18:46Z")
For the first nine years of my working career, I pursued my dream. I was smart and worked hard, the only problem was, I wasn’t very good, if **every** manager I had during that time was to be believed. Didn’t matter. I loved every minute of it, and if I couldn’t make it in one place, hell, I’d just go make it somewhere else. When I finally got out in my late 20’s, it was strictly because I was living at near poverty. If I could have made 10% above near poverty, I’d still be doing it. ---
**Author:** ![GreenElf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@GreenElf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenElf)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/25 "2016-01-05T01:32:16Z")
I wanted to be practical and set aside my childhood interest to pursue a high-salary profession like my father did. It turned out that I couldn’t make it in my profession because I didn’t have the right personality for it, and my understudy in my childhood interest pursued that interest attaining a masters degree in it and went on to be a college professor while I’ve worked various blue collar jobs. In hindsight, I recommend pursuing whatever you’re best at and create your own demand. Maybe you won’t be famous, but you can still be a professor or something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/26 "2016-01-05T01:54:05Z")
> [@GreenElf](#): > > In hindsight, I recommend pursuing whatever you’re best at and create your own demand. Maybe you won’t be famous, but you can still be a professor or something like that. Aspiring to be a college professor (assuming you mean tenured at a decent school and not a permanent adjunct making near poverty wages) isn’t much different than aspiring to be a professional athlete or financially successful musician. The problem is that the educational system funnels way more people into that path than there are jobs available in the same way that high school and college sports create way too many athletes. Most of the people that believe that they are very good at these types of pursuits really are in comparison to the overall population but the supply and demand are so out of whack that those that lack anything, including some luck, are destined to be shut out of their desired career altogether. ---
**Author:** ![F.U.Shakespeare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/aca169/32.png) [@F.U.Shakespeare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/F.U.Shakespeare)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/27 "2016-01-05T02:07:00Z")
I taught guitar while I went to college (in engineering). When I encountered kids who wanted to become rock stars, I told them that their economic circumstances were relevant. If they were rich, they might be able to afford a few years of trying to make it, and start a different career if they didn’t. If they were poor, they would be better able to deal with the sketchy income of a music career than would middle-class kids, even lower middle. People who are trying to make it in music (or other long-odds fields) have an easier time if they’re in one of these two socioeconomic groups. Another factor is what other talents a person has. If you breeze through high school with straight A’s in every subject (and loads of full scholarship offers), the opportunity cost of an eventually unsuccessful career in music or theater is higher than if you dropped out at 16. ---
**Author:** ![BrightSunshine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b3f665/32.png) [@BrightSunshine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrightSunshine)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/28 "2016-01-05T02:33:30Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Of course, that also describes most of the people who **do** make it big in entertainment. That’s true. It’s a self-selected group. Most of them are also not very nice people, so it’s not really a tragedy that most fail. ---
**Author:** ![monstro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba9def/32.png) [@monstro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/monstro)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/29 "2016-01-05T02:40:48Z")
> [@GreenElf](#): > > In hindsight, I recommend pursuing whatever you’re best at and create your own demand. Maybe you won’t be famous, but you can still be a professor or something like that. But the thing is, getting a tenure-track professorship is also quite ambitious. If my imaginary kid was an average scholar and they had their heart set on being a professor, I’d be worried. Aiming high isn’t the worse thing in the world, though. A lot of people fall short of attaining their original goal but end up being satisfied nonetheless. Like the person who works their ass off trying to get into a “dream” Ivy League university, only to get rejected. But if they hadn’t worked so hard, maybe they wouldn’t have gotten the full scholarship at the good state university, and if it hadn’t been for that scholarship, they wouldn’t have been able to travel abroad, which means they wouldn’t have gotten that amazing job right after graduation. Most of us have had to deal with the disappointment of failed ambition at least once in our lives, but we usually come out on the other side feeling like it wasn’t a complete waste of time. Sometimes lofty dreams are the only thing that motivate people to actually work hard or care about anything. I’m betting a lot of parents know that their kid isn’t going to be the next Michael Jordan, but they still encourage them because the alternative would be a kid who is apathetic about school and life in general. ---
**Author:** ![F.U.Shakespeare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/aca169/32.png) [@F.U.Shakespeare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/F.U.Shakespeare)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/30 "2016-01-05T03:03:49Z")
> [@GreenElf](#): > > In hindsight, I recommend pursuing whatever you’re best at and create your own demand. Maybe you won’t be famous, but you can still be a professor or something like that. > [@monstro](#): > > But the thing is, getting a tenure-track professorship is also quite ambitious. If my imaginary kid was an average scholar and they had their heart set on being a professor, I’d be worried. An important question is whether being a public school teacher would be “like that”. Do you actually enjoy teaching? Get a kick out of sharing knowledge, or imparting skills? If so, you might be OK as a teacher (or tenured professor) who never made it. You could be the “cool” teacher, who regales your students with stories. If you don’t like teaching, please reconsider taking a career option that you (and your students) will wish you hadn’t. ---
**Author:** ![harmonicamoon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/65b543/32.png) [@harmonicamoon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/harmonicamoon)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/31 "2016-01-05T03:36:52Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > My youngest daughter is a gymnast and she is extremely good. She is currently ranked #1 in Massachusetts in her age group and won the state title last May. However, gymnastics is also very expensive and I just consider it a sunk cost that I don’t expect to ever get back in any way. I already told her that the second she stops enjoying it, she can just quit and do something else she is interested in. It is fine if she gets a gymnastics or cheerleading scholarship out of it but her mother and I don’t expect it and don’t put any particular pressure on her other than to enjoy it and do the best she can at whatever level she picks. She also has to balance gymnastics with academic work and other worthwhile pursuits with the latter taking priority. She is very lucky to have you folks as parents. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/32 "2016-01-05T03:51:32Z")
> [@harmonicamoon](#): > > She is very lucky to have you folks as parents. Thank you! I know that girl’s gymnastics can be a really abusive sport and that is simply not going to happen to her. We have already had offers from Russian and Chinese coaches to help her advance (at a huge cost) and even maybe even go to the Olympics. No thanks. She does just fine now by herself with what she has and it is all self-motivated. If she makes it to the really high levels of the sport, that is great but it is all up to her and she is not going to be abused because of someone else’s ambition. She is just a talented kid that loves to perform but she has many other, more important, priorities as well. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/33 "2016-01-05T03:52:30Z")
There’s nothing necessarily wrong with taking a shot at a career in professional sports or show business. But you shouldn’t make it the only plan for your life. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/34 "2016-01-05T06:55:59Z")
I’d rather take my 0.01% chance at becoming a rock star (& probably have lots of fun doing it even if I didn’t succeed) than take the safe bet and become a cubicle worker drone (& have my soul destroyed in corperate bureaucracy). ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/35 "2016-01-05T07:32:20Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > I’ve heard it (or something like it) called the [Exceptionalist Fallacy](http://www.popmatters.com/post/the-exceptionalist-fallacy/).All those other chumps are deluded and ignoring the odds, we _are_ better than everyone else so we’ll succeed. > [@BrightSunshine](#): > > The aforementioned brother also tried to trade stocks telling me that “the market is inefficient” and for some reason he alone could exploit the inefficiency to make big bucks. What about the confused–or perhaps _deluded_–people who habitually go to casinos? I know several people who have this attitude about gambling–that _they_ are the ones who know how to win, and the others are chumps. And I’m not talking about using math or statistics. Just people who apparently like the idea of winning at gambling so much that they insist they know something that the majority doesn’t. They usually have some quasi “system” or “technique,” that they’ll attribute to the times they win, but over the long run, they eventually come out with a net loss. Still, they continue to have this attitude. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/36 "2016-01-05T08:51:12Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > It’s not a question of odds. These aspirations are about abilities and talent, and many people overestimate their abilities, often with the help of well meaning friends and family. Yes and plus maybe not facing adequate competition. You might destroy everyone in your neighbourhood at basketball, and start to feel you’re unbeatable. The day you find out otherwise may be the point where you’ve already dedicated much of your life to this goal and annoyed the OP. But… > [@Rune](#): > > I’d rather take my 0.01% chance at becoming a rock star (& probably have lots of fun doing it even if I didn’t succeed) than take the safe bet and become a cubicle worker drone (& have my soul destroyed in corperate bureaucracy). Yep. Plus the OP’s assertion of an excluded middle is not quite true either. You can make a living in entertainment or sports without making it to the top tier. So if it’s what you’re super into, why not shoot for the stars then if you fail, play at a lower tier (e.g. with soccer where there are several divisions) or be a coach, or work behind the camera in TV, etc etc ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/37 "2016-01-05T09:50:34Z")
There are also personality types that don’t suit hierarchies, work or social. These people are not going to buckle down to a 20, 30-year career anyway. Why not take a shot and maybe make a living for a while. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/38 "2016-01-05T12:40:32Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Yep. Plus the OP’s assertion of an excluded middle is not quite true either. You can make a living in entertainment or sports without making it to the top tier. Depends a lot on the exact field - although there are plenty of places for a musician/band who is not at the top to make a living , and there are people in individual sports who make money even though they’re not at the top , the OP was correct about “it’s not like some guy can make a 20 year career as a serviceable AAA baseball player making 65k a year” > **[$600 a Month and a Free Bed: The Minimum-Wage Life of a Semi-Pro Baseball Player](https://www.clevescene.com/news/600-a-month-and-a-free-bed-the-minimum-wage-life-of-a-semi-pro-baseball-player-3637204)** > > $203,000,000 The payroll of the New York Yankees. $70,000 The payroll of the Lake Erie Crushers. $490,000 That's the 2013 minimum salary required by Major... ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/39 "2016-01-05T12:49:31Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > I’d rather take my 0.01% chance at becoming a rock star (& probably have lots of fun doing it even if I didn’t succeed) than take the safe bet and become a cubicle worker drone (& have my soul destroyed in corperate bureaucracy). But that’s half of the problem of the OP, they see it as an either/or proposition. You can work toward a sports or entertainment career, and still put forth enough effort to be educated well enough to get a decent job. Plus, as others have noted, most people do these things whether it’s going to make them rich or not. They do it because they love it. I regularly miss sleep to make practice, lug $400 worth of equipment 50 miles to make $100, and argue arrangements and songwriting with my band members at the age of 45. I highly doubt that I’ll ever become a rock star, hell breaking even is still far away. But if that band broke up, I’d be looking to form another one next week. ---
**Author:** ![Blaster\_Master](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/cab0a1/32.png) [@Blaster\_Master](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blaster_Master)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2016, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180/40 "2016-01-05T13:11:02Z")
Why do people play the lottery? From a statistical standpoint, it’s a foolish waste of money to buy a ticket, yet someone HAS to win eventually. Yes, if you’re buying a lottery ticket as part of the “redneck retirement plan”, that is, viewing it as an investment or more than a fleeting hope that it will pay off, that’s bad. If, however, one sees it as a few bucks of entertainment to dream about the possibility and then a little bit of excitement seeing the numbers read, seeing one or two match from time to time, maybe even winning a few bucks here and there (though a loss overall). Sure, it’s still a new loss, but maybe that cost is worth it to them and I understand. This compares well to these sorts of dream professions. There’s always a new pop star or movie star breaking out every few months. There’s always the next NFL/NBA/MLB/NHL draft, and there’s going to be future all-stars and hall of famers and championship winners in every single draft. Yes, the chances are slimmer than the effort put into it would tend to be worth, but we have a tendency to over-value slim chances and undervalue more likely chances. It’s not unlike how we tend to fear terrorism more than a car wreck, even though we’re thousands of times more likely to get injured or killed in the latter. After all, someone is going to be that next star, why not me? But I also think you underestimate how many other careers there are that are less glamorous in these fields. As a huge fan of underground music, the overwhelming majority of my favorite artists are often able to make out decent livings after putting in a lot of hard work. Could they have made the same amount or more money with less work? Possibly, but they get to do what they love. Maybe they started doing it with some aspirations but with fallback plans. Hell, many of those bands have “day jobs” that they have to take time off from just to tour and it’s not until after they’ve built up enough of a following that they can make their bands a full-time gig. Even then, considering how hard they have to work, they’re probably still under paid. But speaking for myself, if I could do one of my true passions for a living, even if I had to consistently put in 60+ hours a week and make less money than I do now, I’d do it. Hell, between my job and the time I put into my passions as it is, for which I’m not paid, I put in at least that much time. That fulfillment and getting that much more time in what I love would be worth it. Same goes for other professions. One can pursue a career as an actor and make a passable living without ever being the next Brad Pitt. I’ve personally known a couple guys who would get a few small parts in TV shows from time to time. They’d also do small indy films, commercials, some stage work, whatever. Both still had some side jobs to fill in when they weren’t getting regular work, but they seemed to love what they do. Similarly, I’ve met some minor league baseball players who were able to have decent length careers making decent money and then they used their downtime in the off season to get better educations or investments or work in other fields to have a career to follow up. And that doesn’t even mention all the countless other jobs in these fields. Maybe one starts out hoping to be a musician but ends up in production or management. Maybe one wants to be an actor but ends up being a writer or director or stage manager. Maybe one wants to be an athlete but ends up being a trainer or position coach or agent. When we think about a film, we only seem to pay attention to the lead and supporting actors and maybe a few people behind the camera like a big name director, producer, composer, cinematographer, but there’s literally thousands of people involved in a typical wide-release film. So, sure, if one wants to be a big name in one of these things and isn’t willing to settle for less, they’ll probably burn out and end up waiting tables or serving lattes. But I think it’s ultimately good for society to have people that dream big, even if most of them fail, because many still land on their feet. Hell, even outside of these glamorous types of things, this is what creates innovative business ideas, inventions, whatever. Society people, most people, to find a good paying steady job, but society also needs big dreamers willing to take big risks and potentially fail big for that small chance at glory and possibly doing something to further humanity. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-people-become-so-confused-about-the-odds/742180.md?page=3)