# How do we decide if not taking precautions against COVID is irresponsible and dangerous, generally as well as personally? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [April 12, 2022, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705 "2022-04-12T06:31:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/221 "2022-05-11T13:16:08Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > at some point it is likely that flu will represent a greater absolute risk than Covid Covid is a lot more infectious than flu. They are comparing it to measles!!! Unless we get a new, much nastier strain of flu (which can certainly happen. See 1918) covid will remain a greater risk factor to almost everyone, except very small children, who are at much greater risk from flu than older folks, but at lower risk from covid. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/222 "2022-05-11T13:16:20Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > I didn’t take any precautions for the flu, other than get the vaccine and rest if I caught it, because my total risk of dying is 1/10 of what it is for COVID I’m not interested at all in what your own perception of risk is, nor what precautions you take. I didn’t ask you about them, I didn’t comment on them, I don’t judge you for them. The poster I responded to, on whose behalf you seem to be arguing, was taking extreme, life limiting measures and saw no end in sight for them. That was the context in which the discussion about flu was happening. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/223 "2022-05-11T13:17:57Z")
Was talking to a guy in the pharmacy yesterday whose kid was sick, but not with covid. We were both masked, and I said something about flu rates and masks, and he said the non-covid thing his kid was sick with was currently tearing through the school. Even hearing that, I’m still way more concerned about covid in that I will actually mask to prevent covid. I’ve never done jack shit to avoid the flu in my entire life. I certainly wouldn’t change my lifestyle for it like with covid. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/224 "2022-05-11T13:20:32Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Covid is a lot more infectious than flu. They are comparing it to measles!!! Unless we get a new, much nastier strain of flu (which can certainly happen. See 1918) covid will remain a greater risk factor to almost everyone, except very small children, who are at much greater risk from flu than older folks, but at lower risk from covid That will depend very much on the amount in circulation, the strain involved and the immunity profile of the population involved. It isn’t a given. The picture is complicated even further by the fact that flu has been off the scene for a few seasons now. It is entirely possible that it may (when it returns) present a greater overall risk than Covid. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/225 "2022-05-11T13:22:44Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Covid is a lot more infectious than flu. Again I ask, if the average for the 10 years before covid was 9 to 41 million flu cases per year, and we’ve had 82 million covid cases after 2 years, is covid really that much more infectious? It clearly is, right? Meaning those flu numbers are just some bullshit or something? As far as pneumonia inflating flu deaths, I’m not talking about deaths. I’m talking about cases. Flu and covid cases, if you can believe Google’s numbers, are in the same ballpark: 25 million versus 41 million. Those numbers, while higher for covid, are way less higher than I would expect based on my understanding of how much easier it is to catch covid than the flu. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/226 "2022-05-11T13:31:14Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Even hearing that, I’m still way more concerned about covid in that I will actually mask to prevent covid. I’ve never done jack shit to avoid the flu in my entire life. I certainly wouldn’t change my lifestyle for it like with covid And that’s not surprising given where we started. Covid has a special status at the moment that perhaps its ubiquity warrants but its lethality does not. There will be a point in the future (and maybe even has been over the last two years) where the absolute risk of Covid to you specifically, in your locality, is the equivalent of a bad flu year in the past. During those bad flu years the life limiting measures expressed by the poster I initially responded to would likely have been considered far too extreme. It is worth them considering that when trying to see a future point where Covid still exists but they can ease up on their self-imposed restrictions. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/227 "2022-05-11T13:32:58Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > t the individual level, exposure to vaccination and/or COVID infection decreases the risk of “bad outcomes” from future COVID exposure – i.e. risk of any infection is lowered, risk of of symptomatic infection is lowered, risk of “annoying, housebound” symptoms is lowered, risk of “going to the urgent care just in case” symptoms is lowered, risk of “call 911!” symptoms is lowered, risk of hospitalization is lowered, risk of ICU admission is lowered, and risk of death is lowered. But aren’t those known things only for some undetermined length of time based on whatever variant you have at that time? So, for example, the last few months it seemed that “everybody” was getting omicron and we all had sniffles and mild headaches for a week and then it went away. That’s good this time around for some period of time but, what if the next variant happens to be a successful transmission (from one of the few billion unvaxxed) and it, or the one after, happens to be extremely virulent and physiologically damaging? Is there anything that says that we’ll never have a repetition of the first wave ever again? Yes apparently a successful parasite never kills its host, but is not each and every carrier a potential generator of a different variant? IANA epidemiologist but for in my risk/benefit analysis, wearing a mask indoors, and getting vaxxed a couple of times a year, isn’t really that onerous compared to the risk of, say, long covid. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/228 "2022-05-11T14:47:23Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Again I ask, if the average for the 10 years before covid was 9 to 41 million flu cases per year, and we’ve had 82 million covid cases after 2 years, is covid really that much more infectious? Original-strain covid was less infectious than the flu. Each variant has gotten more infectious, with a huge increase at omicron, and modest increases for the new omicron variants. So you can’t compare the cases over the whole pandemic, you really should start with omicron and extrapolate. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/229 "2022-05-11T14:49:49Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > Yes apparently a successful parasite never kills its host Not all parasites are successful that way. There are examples of species driven extinct by an overly aggressive infection or parasite. Not that i think there’s any risk of covid driving humanity extinct. It doesn’t seem nearly deadly enough for that, especially among breeding-age-and-younger people. But there’s no reason to think that parasites will just naturally limit themselves to widely use their resources. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/230 "2022-05-11T15:24:54Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Not all parasites are successful that way. There are examples of species driven extinct by an overly aggressive infection or parasite True but, especially in our (the human) case, even if a covid variant was unsuccessful _enough_ to kill off a lot of hosts without killing off the whole population, that could still, theoretically and/or potentially, kill off 500,000,000 people, which is a horrifying number, but nothing in the grand scheme of things population-wise. That would be equivalent to remove eight Canadas from the planet. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/231 "2022-05-11T15:47:35Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > Is there anything that says that we’ll never have a repetition of the first wave ever again? Yes apparently a successful parasite never kills its host, but is not each and every carrier a potential generator of a different variant? Anything could happen. Omicron supplanted Delta and all of that had nothing to do with anything that happened in the United States. It came from another country. Since Covid can still be in vaccinated people, I don’t think that even vaccinating everyone would prevent another mutation. Covid is also in animals, so it could mutate there and jump back to humans. I think some of this fearful speculation makes people feel safe. Covid made me feel unsafe in March 2020, now the “new normal” of being fearful of Covid feels safer than giving that fear up. I’d rather be safe than feel safe. A coworker of mine died in a head on car crash not to long ago; maybe I should fear driving more than Covid. Twentysomethings should definitely worry about accidents and drug use more than Covid, because those things are far more dangerous to that age group. It’s not even close. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/232 "2022-05-11T17:39:22Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Original-strain covid was less infectious than the flu That would appear not to be a settled fact. [Here is a Lancet article](https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30484-9.pdf) on that subject, [here’s another one pre-covid](https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) that talks about R0 figures for seasonal flu. And certainly opinions vary slightly, it is most likely that the original strain of Covid was about, or perhaps slightly higher than the seasonal flu value of about 1.4 for the R0. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/233 "2022-05-11T18:18:26Z")
Okay, but it was on par with flu, loosely speaking. Whereas omicron is vastly more infectious than original strain, and is being compared to measles. For example, this estimates the R0 for Omicron ba.1 at 8.2 and ba.2 at 12 > **[Health | The Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health)** > > The latest breaking news, comment and features from The Independent. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/234 "2022-05-11T20:21:37Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Okay, but it was on par with flu, loosely soaking. Whereas omicron is vastly more infectious than original strain, and is being compared to measles. For example, this estimates the R0 for Omicron ba.1 at 8.2 and ba.2 at 12 Yes, Omicron is pretty much an order of magnitude more infectious. As it hit countries they were seeing initial doubling times of 3 days. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2022, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/235 "2022-05-11T22:24:01Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Flu and covid cases, if you can believe Google’s numbers, are in the same ballpark: 25 million versus 41 million. Those numbers, while higher for covid, are way less higher than I would expect based on my understanding of how much easier it is to catch covid than the flu. I think I figured out my disconnect. The flu numbers are without masking or social distancing, and with lower vaccination rates. During covid, the flu has been negligible. (I think.) That’s the stark difference I wasn’t seeing. Looking it up, holy crap, over 50% of Americans aged 6 months and older get flu vaccines every year. That is way higher than I expected. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/236 "2022-05-12T08:51:48Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Looking it up, holy crap, over 50% of Americans aged 6 months and older get flu vaccines every year. That is way higher than I expected. I’m surprised by that as well, I’d have guessed maybe 30-40% with the vast majority in the over-50 bracket. However, [here is an interesting char](https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/adult-flu-vaccination-coverage#background)t that plots flu vaccine in the over 65’s in various countries. It is higher than I thought generally. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/237 "2022-05-12T11:43:42Z")
So, to be clear, in the early days, we had a virus that was about as transmittable as flu, but was much more deadly. Then we got vaccines, and there was a brief period of relative safety. Then Delta hit, which was much more infectious than original-strain, and also evaded the vaccine to some extent. But a booster seemed to do it. But then omicron came, which is far more infectious than Delta, and is being compared to the most infectious diseases we know of. And it evades the vaccines even better, and has a disturbing mortality rate, as well as (not yet well understood) risk of long covid, which includes chronic fatigue syndrome, brain damage, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and kidney disease. So some of us are still talking precautions we never took against flu, because we are far more likely to catch covid than we ever were to catch flu, and, it’s legitimately scarier than flu to catch. Sure, there’s a valid argument that even so, it’s not worth extreme precautions, especially for the young. But is it worth more precautions than we’ve traditionally taken for flu? Hell yes. ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/238 "2022-05-12T11:51:18Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > So some of us are still talking precautions we never took against flu, because we are far more likely to catch covid than we ever were to catch flu, and, it’s legitimately scarier than flu to catch. > > Sure, there’s a valid argument that even so, it’s not worth extreme precautions, especially for the young. But is it worth more precautions than we’ve traditionally taken for flu? Hell yes. The only person whose level of precautions I have referred to was the poster who was taking extreme, life limiting precautions and who thought they would be doing so _for ever_. Look back at my posts, I never questioned or in any way criticised what you choose to do and unless you share the level and scope (and future intention) of that poster then my comments are not relevant for you. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/239 "2022-05-12T13:19:03Z")
> [@puzzlegal](#): > > Sure, there’s a valid argument that even so, it’s not worth extreme precautions, especially for the young. But is it worth more precautions than we’ve traditionally taken for flu? Hell yes And where I live, in Quebec, the prov gov’t is lifting mask requirements next week, and thus so is my workplace. This is going to be an interesting time and I certainly don’t see wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, and getting vaxxed every so often, a major imposition. My wife is immunocompromised so that’s always going to be a factor in our calculations. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2022, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705/240 "2022-05-12T14:41:23Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > I certainly don’t see wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, and getting vaxxed every so often, a major imposition. I agree with this. Which is why, even though no one in my household is immunocompromised, I anticipate wearing a mask in indoor crowded spaces kind of indefinitely. I am hopeful that we’ll get a new, better vaccine and/or numbers drop a lot, and I can feel safe going out to eat. But it just doesn’t bother me to wear a KF94 mask to go to the grocery store, nor to do a rapid test before dining with friends. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-decide-if-not-taking-precautions-against-covid-is-irresponsible-and-dangerous-generally-as-well-as-personally/962705.md?page=13)