Whereas i am now thinking i may wear a mask to go grocery shopping indefinitely. And I’ll almost certainly wear a mask on public transit (planes, trains, buses, subways, maybe Uber) for the rest of my life.
Sometimes that’s how I feel. I don’t really like that feeling, but I do think that the current pandemic is never going to end. At least not in my lifetime. Life as it was before 2020 is over, and it’s never coming back.
I’m 55 years old. If I’m lucky, I have maybe 25-35 years left in front of me. And this is what my life is going to be from now on. It will never be safe to go out in public without a mask. It will never be safe to eat in a restaurant. I will never be able to go to a movie theater again. I will never be able to eat in a restaurant again. I will never be able to attend an in-person church service again. I will be risking my life every time I go to the grocery store, or indeed, every time I go to work. I will never be able to go on another vacation. My wife and I used to love doing community theater–it’s how we met, in fact. It will never be safe to do another show.
Stay indoors, wear a mask everywhere, don’t socialize with anyone. This is my life from now until the day I die. It may well be your life until the day you die, even if you are now in your 20s. Or your teens. Or a newborn baby.
It’s never going to end, and it’s never going to get any better.
It’s not any better now than it was any time during the pandemic? That’s not true. Vaccines have worked.
I have vaccinated and boosted. Tested when I had a close contact.
COVID is no longer my primary health concern. My experience with those closest to me is that other health concerns during this 26 month period have affected me and mine more than Covid has. The clock continues to tick, people continue to age and have health problems. In my circle, other health problems have affected things more than Covid, other than things being affected by Covid indirectly (virtual school etc.)
My mother is 97 now, in memory care. She goes to the hospital maybe about once a year for something or other, because she’s old. Covid went through her memory care place, she was asymptomatic.
Even with the number of people in hospitals, if those numbers are being driven by the vulnerable (old and immunocompromised) and unvaccinated, and it really seems like vulnerable is an increasing percentage compared to even unvaccinated, then what’s important is to protect those vulnerable.
At this point I have more fear of fearing Covid than I actually do of Covid. The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, I guess.
Thinking back on the evolution of the pandemic so far:
When someone in fall 2020 said “a bunch of people I know have COVID in their households”, it sounded dire. In my mind’s eye, some number of those for sure would end up hospitalized and if any of them were past middle age … well, then the unthinkable seemed all but inevitable.
When someone in spring 2022 said “a bunch of people I know have COVID in their households”, does it convey the same level of dread? In the U.S. and much of the developed world, the lay of the land for the COVID virus (whatever variant) is very – very – different now, isn’t it?
Anti-vaxxers get a lot of press, but rubber to road: What percentage of Americans out there “in the wild” right now have completely naïve immune systems against COVID? No vaccinations plus for certain no COVID infection? Sure, some – as many as 1 in 5? I don’t know. 1 in 7? Perhaps. Does the specific percentage even matter much? Sure, maybe(?), probably?
I get the distinct impression that COVID is generally nerfed today, in the sense that it was running on flat unfeatured asphalt in 2020 and today is running through chest-deep muck. Sure, COVID can cover ground, as it were. The same things as in 2020 can still happen – that word “can” that does so much duty in these discussion where rates, effects, and severities get ignored. Someone can still get infected with COVID today – does it matter like it mattered in 2020? For some, yes … for many (most?), not really (caveats at the individual level apply).
So when we hear about COVID cases today, what are we hearing about? Individual stories, yes, can (‘can’, again!) be just as terrible and heartbreaking as they were in 2020. But what are we seeing when we zoom way out and collect stories from the thousands of cases reported everyday in recent weeks? Are low-symptom cases much, much more the norm these days than they were in 2020? Once again, not every one … but from a top-of-the-mountain view?
We really don’t know. And that’s what’s so frustrating. Yeah, we know that if you’re vaccinated and boosted you are in a much better place than not, but 300 people a day are still dying from COVID in the US and that’s about to increase with the current rise in cases. How many people have long term symptoms? How many are badly ill? Everything is opening back up, but what’s really changed?
I guess, “If you’re vaccinated, it’s as good as it will ever be. If you’re not then you’re taking your own chances” is the best we can ever hope for, but that’s so incredibly depressing.
Daily deaths today are FAR lower than at any time since April 2020.
Vaccinations are great. Omicron is milder. Compared to what we had, yes it is great.
That’s not true. Daily deaths were lower for about 6 weeks in June/July 2021. And a recent study suggests Omicron may not actually be milder when vaccinations and previous infections and demographics are accounted for.
I think this is hyperbolic in the extreme.
The risk of death from Covid is now less than that of flu.
Were you of that similar frame of mind prior to Feb 2020? if not, why not?
I can’t tell you how to feel but I don’t think your list of self-imposed restrictions are a reasonable response to the current threat.
I don’t know how you figure that. The CDC estimates between 12,000 – 52,000 people die from flu each year. If today’s death rate stayed perfectly steady (it won’t, it’s about to go up) we’d have over 100,000 deaths.
Worldwide deaths are far lower.
I do not find the study you are citing credible. It flies in the face of everything that was observed about Omicron. Omicron manifested differently, yes it was milder in unvaccinated populations. Not all studies are accurate.
I think it very much depends on where you live. I think MandaJo lives in Texas which had a pretty significant Delta surge last year. The northeast and california had very small summer surges. Our hospitalization rate is very low right now. ICU and death rate is the lowest since the beginning of the pandemic. As per usual for Texas, our cases will start climbing soon enough as people stay indoors during the hot weather.
This is why responsible precautions should depend on what’s happening in your area. Even if people are no longer testing like they should, positivity rates should give a hint that cases are rising. Hospitalizations haven’t had the delay with Omicron as they did in the past, so they’re also a good indicator.
These indicators are starting to creep up in my area. I’ve just started wearing a mask indoors again. I’ll be watching the trends to see how long I have to do this.
I disagree – I think we do know. At the individual level, exposure to vaccination and/or COVID infection decreases the risk of “bad outcomes” from future COVID exposure – i.e. risk of any infection is lowered, risk of of symptomatic infection is lowered, risk of “annoying, housebound” symptoms is lowered, risk of “going to the urgent care just in case” symptoms is lowered, risk of “call 911!” symptoms is lowered, risk of hospitalization is lowered, risk of ICU admission is lowered, and risk of death is lowered.
Given that, all that’s been necessary is getting enough people (unfortunately, not a hard “pinpointable” number or percentage) into that “been vaxxed/infected” state so that COVID is forced move through our population only fitfully and with difficulty and with less general effect on people.
It probably is (hyperbolic), but that’s how it sometimes feels.
At one time, I had some hope that getting vaccines into circulation would get things under control, but I’ve largely given up on that. I’m fully vaccinated, and have had two boosters, so I am as protected as I can be. And I suppose I’ve been lucky, in that I’ve never gotten sick, even when people close to me (including my wife) did. I suppose it’s possible that I’ve had Covid at some point, but if so I never knew it.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t feel to me like things are getting better. Rather, it feels like everybody is pretending it’s getting better, but there’s the lurking possibility that another variant is just waiting to clobber us all. People say that variants will get milder, but that’s mostly wishful thinking. And as cited above, “Omicron was much milder” turns out not to have been true. It’s like the scene in a horror film where everybody thinks the killer is dead, and nobody notices that he’s getting up and is standing right behind them, just waiting to strike again.
As I said, I don’t like feeling this way, but I haven’t been able to argue myself out of it.
Well knowing that it is a potentially hyperbolic reaction is a step along the way to treating it with the amount of respect and/or concern that it warrants.
I’m in much the same demographic as you and I just don’t give it a moments thought now. It is just one more potential bug to catch but one that I can protect myself against pretty easily and one that can now be treated fairly succesfully if it turns serious.
As family we are going on the train to London next week. We will travel on the tube, visit markets and museums, eat indoors and outdoors and some of us will be going to see Hamilton. All unmasked and Covid will not be a concern for any of us.
The article is paywalled.
Johns Hopkins from 23 Feb. 2022:
The COVID-19 situation continues to change, sometimes rapidly. Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19. At present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu.
From the CDC these are attributes of COVID-19 that are differences from the flu:
Overall, COVID-19 seems to cause more serious illnesses in some people.
Serious COVID-19 illness resulting in hospitalization and death can occur even in healthy people.
The bolded … is that not also true of influenza, depending on the strain?
Actually, both of those items are true of influenza – the effects at the individual level are variable. That’s not meant to mean that, actuarily, the raw risks are the same – just that the CDC’s statement lacks detail.
It’s definitely true that healthy people can die from the flu.
Is a different claim than this:
For example, if COVID were 1/10 as deadly but 1000x as transmissible, it’s true that your risk of dying if you have COVID is lower, but since your chances of getting it is much higher, your risk of death from COVID is higher.
It is only a different claim if you assume I’m talking about the relative risk on one case and the absolute risk in the other.
It is a distinction worth making, but I was talking about the relative severity of each.