# How do we tell if social distancing is working? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 14, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479 "2020-03-14T14:19:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/21 "2020-03-16T21:34:36Z")
Basically the idea is that when you implement a restriction, the effects ought to be seen somewhere after the incubation period, which according to the CDC right now, is 2-14 days, with an average of 11.5 days. So the slope of the curve of identified new cases (i.e. the transmission rate) should flatten out after that period. In other words, people shouldn’t be being infected at such a high rate, and that should be apparent after two weeks. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/22 "2020-03-16T21:39:53Z")
Basically the idea is that when you implement a restriction, the effects ought to be seen somewhere after the incubation period, which according to the CDC right now, is 2-14 days, with an average of 11.5 days. So the slope of the curve of identified new cases (i.e. the transmission rate) should flatten out after that period. In other words, people shouldn’t be being infected at such a high rate, and that should be apparent after two weeks. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2020, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/23 "2020-03-17T04:31:18Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Basically the idea is that when you implement a restriction, the effects ought to be seen somewhere after the incubation period, which according to the CDC right now, is 2-14 days, with an average of 11.5 days. I believe the average is about 5 days, and 11.5 is 2 standard deviations (95%). ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/24 "2020-03-18T04:47:31Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > But experts are now saying the virus can be asymptomatic in children and very mild in young adults, and these age groups are NOT staying home. I’ve been watching that here in my corner of western Washington, where there are fewer cases here than in King County: the restaurants and bars are packed at night, and the mall is still busy, mostly–from what I can tell–with 20-40-year-olds. > > If young people are still infecting each other, how long would it take for the virus to have run through that population? Isn’t that how long the rest of us will be socially isolating? What worries me is that we’re going to have a potential explosion of cases in the next 7-14 days. At my university they told the college kids not to come back to campus next week after spring break, but at some schools similar announcements came while at many schools they were already on spring break. Had they all gone home right as spring break began maybe that’d of been okay, but lots and lots went on vacations last week and lots are on vacation this week. And now they’re all headed home soon to share the virus with their parents and grandparents… ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/25 "2020-03-18T15:58:13Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > What worries me is that we’re going to have a potential explosion of cases in the next 7-14 days. At my university they told the college kids not to come back to campus next week after spring break, but at some schools similar announcements came while at many schools they were already on spring break. Had they all gone home right as spring break began maybe that’d of been okay, but lots and lots went on vacations last week and lots are on vacation this week. And now they’re all headed home soon to share the virus with their parents and grandparents… Right- in terms of disease transmission, from what I’ve read, there is no such thing as “too early” for things like quarantine, social distancing, enhanced hand washing, etc… If anything, the earlier the better; I suspect had they implemented this (somehow), back before there were any positive cases in the US, it would have significantly slowed the transmission, as well as made contact tracking on any future positive cases a LOT easier. But disease transmission is not the only consideration in play, so I’m not sure when the _best_ time overall to implement this stuff would have been. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2020, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/26 "2020-03-18T16:44:57Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > If the situation gets bad enough, they can enforce a lockdown; They ended up doing the opposite. They released as many people as they possibly can. In some states they brought judges in over the weekend to plow through all the ‘easy’ cases. Basically all the cases where the person was going to plead guilty, the verdict had already been decided and the trial was just a technicality at that point. For example, all the people that had worked out deals to plead guilty and get house arrest…no point in having them sitting around the jail for another week if we can get them home today. ---
**Author:** ![Die\_Capacitrix](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/die_capacitrix/32/9_2.png) [@Die\_Capacitrix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Die_Capacitrix)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/27 "2020-03-21T11:37:15Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > And it should be noted that as soon as test kits are widely available, the numbers will appear to sky rocket, even if nothing changed. > \*\*No one is saying you’re not allowed to leave your house. \*\*They just don’t want people to gather unnecessarily. Go get your air bags fixed, but skip the retirement party for your friend’s mom. > Illinois just shut down all bars and restaurants, but stores are still open. Bolding is mine. My coworker in northern Italy is not allowed to talk to his neighbor, unless by phone. Even here in Switzerland the message is to stay home, and if you are out and about, make sure the group is 5 or less. For now it seems that going out for a walk is still permitted and even encouraged. As long as it is a single person, or just the household, and there is no contact with others. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/28 "2020-03-21T19:45:40Z")
> [@Spiderman](#): > > Probably not. There is already much more social distancing between visitors & residents than in nursing homes, in some jails there is no social contact as there is a partition between the inmate & any visitors. Also, generally the population is younger & healthier than those of nursing homes so less co-morbid factors. > If the situation gets bad enough, they can enforce a lockdown; keeping inmates in their cells enforces social distancing much greater than can be done with the general public. While inmates are generally younger than those in nursing homes, they are [more likely](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(18)30103-7/fulltext) than the general population to have chronic conditions or infectious diseases. Moreover, a lockdown does NOT enforce social distancing from other inmates or from the guards, social workers, medical personnel, contract workers, attorneys, etc., etc. etc., who are heading out into the wide world at the end of shift. The photo accompanying [this article](https://www.al.com/news/2019/02/alabama-will-build-3-prisons-for-men-ivey-announces-do-not-publish.html), for example, shows the open dorms that are quite common in American penal institutions; what do you think will happen to inmates locked down inside such a place if a respiratory infection starts spreading? Add in notoriously poor health care, lack of access to sanitary supplies, and the lack of maintenance and adequate ventilation common to many facilities, and it is a recipe for disaster. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/29 "2020-03-21T20:19:45Z")
I’ve posted similar to this in another thread but it belongs here likely more. [This](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext) is the best time course data we have. See figure one. Incubation period on average 5 to 6 days. “Confirmed infection rate” is a meaningless number to follow as it more reflects kit availability and testing guidelines than anything else. Death rate is a believable number, as would be confirmed cases in ICUs. Deaths most commonly occur at about 19 days into having symptoms according to that article. We have public access to the daily deaths number which is now doubling every 2 days. A change in that daily deaths rate off of the same doubling rate next week reflects either natural topping off of the disease -very very unlikely - or - of public behavior changes two weeks ago (e.g. voluntary social distancing adopted most consistently by those at highest risk and hopefully better self quarantining if sick). A change in a bit over three weeks from now in that daily deaths rate reflects what we have done in the last couple of days. (5 days incubation plus 19 days until death, each on average, equals 24 days.) If we can get the ICU numbers then that would be lagging a week less. Rates of diagnosed infections will be useless. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/30 "2020-03-21T20:40:14Z")
> [@nelliebly](#): > > But experts are now saying the virus can be asymptomatic in children and very mild in young adults, and these age groups are NOT staying home. I’ve been watching that here in my corner of western Washington, where there are fewer cases here than in King County: the restaurants and bars are packed at night, and the mall is still busy, mostly–from what I can tell–with 20-40-year-olds. > > If young people are still infecting each other, how long would it take for the virus to have run through that population? Isn’t that how long the rest of us will be socially isolating? Children also apparently much less contagious, which if confirmed is a huge big deal. A hypothetical in which the younger adults all did nothing would have it likely do the same peak timing that the experts say would be the case if all did nothing, taking about 3 months. Not all high risk people could be protected though, and a lower death rate in a larger group of people still adds up. To some degree that may be what we are seeing now - three weeks ago more higher risk people self-isolating, while younger people kept with business as usual - so now a relative shift to more younger people in the hospitals and ICUs. Herd immunity building but with risk of overwhelming healthcare system capacity before it peaks. If so the actual current numbers of infections out there is likely HUGE. ---
**Author:** ![Harrington](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac8455/32.png) [@Harrington](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Harrington)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2020, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/31 "2020-03-21T22:49:04Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > Illinois just shut down all bars and restaurants, but stores are still open. Including liquor stores, which are apparently essential. I guess a lot of people need to swig a bottle of whiskey to maintain their sanity. I do anyway, so I happy liquor stores will remain open. > **[What Illinois’s Stay-at-Home Order Means for Restaurants and Liquor Stores](https://chicago.eater.com/2020/3/20/21188623/illinois-stay-at-home-shelter-in-place-chicago-restauarnts-delivery-covid-19)** > > Gov. Pritzker’s order starts Saturday and goes through April 7, forces nonessential businesses to close — restaurants, grocery stores, and other food businesses, including liquor stores, can stay open ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/32 "2020-03-22T00:14:33Z")
One place to look to see how effective a national quarantine might be is Italy. (Note it won’t tell us how much more effective than other measures could have been, just if effective.) They went on lock down March 9, 12 days ago. If effective then new ICU admissions for COVID-19 should begin to persistently decline this next week, and daily death rates by another 10 days. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/33 "2020-03-22T00:15:51Z")
> [@Joey\_P](#): > > No one is saying you’re not allowed to leave your house. They just don’t want people to gather unnecessarily. Go get your air bags fixed, but skip the retirement party for your friend’s mom. As it happens, impassible heavy snow canceled our airbag-fix trip. I’ll just have to drive safely so they’re not needed. Any deer jumping in front of us will just have to die, sorry. And any parties are likely to be virtual. We may Skype with the family for Easter. Darn. > [@](#): > > Illinois just shut down all bars and restaurants, but stores are still open. I finally broke through our mountain snow and drove down to the small county seat for a bit of shopping. Most eateries were open, all for takeout, and the taco trucks were busy. Taverns were shut and a local violator lost their liquor license and lease. Most essential stores were open and the trivial sort were closed; I picked the wrong day to accessorize the library. :eek: Our local gourmet ice cream parlor (“best in greater Sacramento!”) is open. Their small outside tables are ten feet apart so social distancing is the rule there. ---
**Author:** ![Die\_Capacitrix](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/die_capacitrix/32/9_2.png) [@Die\_Capacitrix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Die_Capacitrix)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/34 "2020-03-22T12:37:00Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > One place to look to see how effective a national quarantine might be is Italy. (Note it won’t tell us how much more effective than other measures could have been, just if effective.) They went on lock down March 9, 12 days ago. If effective then new ICU admissions for COVID-19 should begin to persistently decline this next week, and daily death rates by another 10 days. Some cities started earlier. > [@](#): > > Unlike other parts of northern Italy, Lodi implemented a strict lockdown early in the course of the outbreak. When compared with other cities, the effects of that early intervention are clear: cases did not increase as quickly as in other parts of the country. There’s a graphic about ¾ down the page of the [article](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/covid-19-coronavirus-epidemiology-expert-explains-italian-death-rate/). [This](https://apnews.com/d7fe9900bc1a5ed201f2e49b74df78a4) article does mention > [@](#): > > Infections of the new virus have not stopped in Codogno, which still has registered the most of any of the 10 Lombardy towns in Italy’s original red zone, but they have slowed. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2020, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479/35 "2020-03-22T13:21:22Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > Our local gourmet ice cream parlor (“best in greater Sacramento!”) is open. Their small outside tables are ten feet apart so social distancing is the rule there. Perhaps local Sacramento-area ice cream shops feel they still have a few more years of good luck owed to them after this [1972 plane crash](https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sacbee.com/news/local/history/article2574880.html). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-we-tell-if-social-distancing-is-working/849479.md?page=1)