# How do you expect the shutdown to end? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 1, 2013, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088 "2013-10-01T14:10:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/1 "2013-10-01T14:10:00Z")
Right now, I’m having a hard time seeing how this deal gets resolved. Which side will blink? Not seeing how Obama can agree to any restrictions on ACA. I see more possibility for the House Repubs to waver - simply because they are a more numerous and diverse group. But I hate to bet on those in power adopting a position that they do not consider to their immediate and future advantage. And what will the resolution look like? Will we have yet another “crisis” looming in a matter of weeks/months? And what will be the implications on the next pending “crisis” already on the calendar? What do you crystal balls show? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/2 "2013-10-01T14:24:43Z")
The Republicans will blink after a week or two, I believe. The polls are showing that they are taking the majority of the blame, and the Democrats have too much to lose by risking this brinksmanship for every single issue to give in. At some point Boehner will just give in and put forward a clean vote (or perhaps with some tiny but relatively meaningless change to Obamacare to claim a symbolic victory), and it will pass with mostly Democratic votes. And then, hopefully, because he’ll realize that he can’t piss off the Tea Party nuts any more, he’ll put forward a clean debt limit increase to. And then he’ll announce his retirement. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/3 "2013-10-01T14:35:39Z")
Full cave by Republicans. They wanted to pass a clean CR until Cruz riled up the teahadists and forced them into this dog and pony show. The majority of them don’t want this, they are just scared of the crazy wing. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/4 "2013-10-01T14:56:46Z")
When it starts to affect Wall Street, the powers that be will jerk on Boehner’s chain and he’ll suddenly allow a vote on a clean CR, which will pass with just enough Republicans. > [@](#): > > I see more possibility for the House Repubs to waver - simply because they are a more numerous and diverse group. Huh? Diverse? I think it’s more like 80% right wing, 10% far right wing, and 10% batshit insane. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/5 "2013-10-01T15:11:08Z")
My guess: CR _and_ a debt ceiling increase in exchange for some token ACA modification (probably a removal of the exemption for Congress). Here’s my theory as to why some Republicans are hard-nosed on the mandate: the Democrats are making it a point to say, “The Supreme Court upheld it” - except that the mandate was found to violate the Commerce Clause _ **if it is not considered a tax** _, so some of them feel that the mandate violates their “No New Taxes” pledge. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/6 "2013-10-01T15:42:58Z")
CR with a repeal or modification of the medical devices tax. Clean debt ceiling increase (obviously Boehner and co. decided government shutdown was a better hostage to execute, politically, than the debt ceiling - probably correct). ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/7 "2013-10-01T16:06:45Z")
I’m still shaking my head. I watched the CNN live blog as this unfolded yesterday. It reminded me of spoiled kids fighting for more sand in their corner of the sand box. Both sides piling sand under their asses refusing to give any to the other. In the end, we’ll have Obamacare, the Devise tax, etc. Congress will have gotten paid, and as usual, the little guy gets tromped on in the form of no paychecks, closed offices, etc. Kids in a sand box. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/8 "2013-10-01T17:12:07Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > I’m still shaking my head. I watched the CNN live blog as this unfolded yesterday. It reminded me of spoiled kids fighting for more sand in their corner of the sand box. Both sides piling sand under their asses refusing to give any to the other. > > In the end, we’ll have Obamacare, the Devise tax, etc. Congress will have gotten paid, and as usual, the little guy gets tromped on in the form of no paychecks, closed offices, etc. > > Kids in a sand box. As long as the spoiled kids in the sandbox are all the various wings of the Republican party. This is not one of those crises in which we can say “both sides are to blame”… no, in this case, one side is to blame. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/9 "2013-10-01T18:10:05Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As long as the spoiled kids in the sandbox are all the various wings of the Republican party. This is not one of those crises in which we can say “both sides are to blame”… no, in this case, one side is to blame. What are you talking about? The House of Representatives controls the “purse.” That’s how the Framers intended it to be–spending bills _must_ originate there. This is a spending bill. The elected House is doing their job; passing a spending bill that has certain budgetary provisions in accord with what their constituents want. _They passed the bill_. That the Senate and President are throwing a tantrum and deciding that they don’t **and won’t** consider the spending bill that the house put forward means that they’re the ones who are responsible for the shutdown, not the House Republicans that merely did their Constitutional Duty to set spending priorities. Or to return to the sandbox analogy, the Republicans are holding the Democrat’s little sister behind the school, beyond the reach or sight of the teacher. Under threat of brutally raping her, they’re trying to extract a promise from the Democrats. If the Democrats don’t commit, whatever happens to their sister is their fault. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/10 "2013-10-01T18:13:41Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > What are you talking about? The House of Representatives controls the “purse.” That’s how the Framers intended it to be–spending bills _must_ originate there. This is a spending bill. The elected House is doing their job; passing a spending bill that has certain budgetary provisions in accord with what their constituents want. _They passed the bill_. That the Senate and President are throwing a tantrum and deciding that they don’t **and won’t** consider the spending bill that the house put forward means that they’re the ones who are responsible for the shutdown, not the House Republicans that merely did their Constitutional Duty to set spending priorities. > > Or to return to the sandbox analogy, the Republicans are holding the Democrat’s little sister behind the school, beyond the reach or sight of the teacher. Under threat of brutally raping her, they’re trying to extract a promise from the Democrats. If the Democrats don’t commit, whatever happens to their sister is their fault. I am confused- your second paragraph seems to be in direct conflict with the first. My opinion is that the Democrats cannot even negotiate with the Republican when they threaten government shutdown and debt default, because it will encourage them to use the tactic again. By your second paragraph, you seem to agree with me, but your first disagrees. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/11 "2013-10-01T18:32:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I am confused- your second paragraph seems to be in direct conflict with the first. My opinion is that the Democrats cannot even negotiate with the Republican when they threaten government shutdown and debt default, because it will encourage them to use the tactic again. By your second paragraph, you seem to agree with me, but your first disagrees. The first paragraph is the thin veneer of bullshit the schoolyard bully paints over the extortion attempt. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/12 "2013-10-01T18:56:01Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > certain budgetary provisions in accord with what their constituents want. Only for a very narrow definition of “constituents”, hmm? The \*law \*that faction opposes passed both houses after lengthy debate (in which they had to resort to simply lying), was signed by the President, even found constitutional by the Supreme Court, is now in effect, and, more to the point, is supported by a solid majority of the country, a large proportion of whom want it to go even further. In addition, their party holds a majority in the House only by way of heavy gerrymandering - they actually represent only a minority of the people, and the controlling faction is only a minority of them. They lost. It’s over. They tried every persuasion method they had and the people found the other side more persuasive. The people’s will is against them. So who again do you say the House is representing by attempting sabotage instead? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/13 "2013-10-01T19:00:48Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > The first paragraph is the thin veneer of bullshit the schoolyard bully paints over the extortion attempt. Sorry, got whooshed. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/14 "2013-10-01T19:03:50Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As long as the spoiled kids in the sandbox are all the various wings of the Republican party. This is not one of those crises in which we can say “both sides are to blame”… no, in this case, one side is to blame. yes. [Andrew Sullivan](http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/10/01/the-nullification-party/)has a great take on it: > [@](#): > > Even though the law is almost identical to that of their last presidential nominee’s in Massachusetts, the GOP is prepared to destroy both the American government and the global economy to stop it. They see it, it seems to me, as both some kind of profound attack on the Constitution (something even Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts viewed as a step too far) and, in some inchoate way, as a racial hand-out, however preposterous that is. And that is at the core of the recklessness behind this attack on the US – or at least my best attempt to understand something that has long since gone beyond reason. This is the point of no return – a black president doing something for black citizens (even though the vast majority of beneficiaries of Obamacare will be non-black). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/15 "2013-10-01T19:19:28Z")
I am always willing to give Andy a listen, as he sometimes makes cogent points. But I don’t really see any racist dimension to this ideological shit-fit. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/16 "2013-10-01T19:23:17Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I am always willing to give Andy a listen, as he sometimes makes cogent points. But I don’t really see any racist dimension to this ideological shit-fit. Well, the conduct of the right is making no sense. I suppose he’s looking for any explanation that can explain this. If you read the entire post, it’s less focused on race than the part I quoted. ETA: > [@](#): > > Except this time, of course, we cannot deny that race too is an added factor to the fathomless sense of entitlement felt among the GOP far right. You saw it in birtherism; in the Southern GOP’s constant outrageous claims of Obama’s alleged treason and alliance with Islamist enemies; in providing zero votes for a stimulus that was the only thing that prevented a global depression of far worse proportions; in the endless race-baiting from Fox News and the talk radio right. And in this racially-charged atmosphere, providing access to private healthcare insurance to the working poor is obviously the point of no return. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/17 "2013-10-01T19:30:44Z")
His problem is finding an original insight into a situation that doesn’t allow for any. This stuff is pretty cut and dried, the facts are obvious, so one side can only present those facts and the other side is forced into elaborate evasions. Doesn’t allow for much in the way of startling insight. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/18 "2013-10-01T19:32:44Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > CR with a repeal or modification of the medical devices tax. Clean debt ceiling increase . This is what I was going to say. In the end, the GOP knows that the only concession possible is something to do with that tax that they claim will send thousands of jobs overseas. They can claim that as a small face saving victory. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/19 "2013-10-01T19:39:43Z")
Maybe not. I’m thinking that the people who are so strongly against the medical device tax aren’t taking into account how many more of those devices will be sold once more people have the insurance to pay for them. Of course, they would be even better off if more people can afford them and they don’t have to pay the tax. Further, its very hard to know whether or not this is simply another ploy to cripple the tax resources for the ACA. My Senators from MN are aligned with rescinding the tax, and they are a couple of pretty smart cookies, so I’m willing to listen. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2013, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088/20 "2013-10-01T19:47:15Z")
They stand for every tax bill being revenue-neutral, right? Make 'em stick with that. If the medical devices tax is repealed, they get to select some other tax to replace it. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-do-you-expect-the-shutdown-to-end/670088.md?page=2)