# How does the pandemic end? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 23, 2020, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229 "2020-11-23T02:23:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/21 "2020-11-23T22:13:17Z")
I’ve heard about the rollout plans, what I haven’t heard is what happens after that. I’m not a healthcare worker, or particularly old. I’m fine with waiting until the vaccine is available to the general public. But once I get the vaccine, can I go back to business as usual right after the second dose, or will they still recommend masks and isolation (even for people who have been vaccinated) until the number of active cases comes way down? ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/22 "2020-11-23T22:21:37Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > will they still recommend masks and isolation (even for people who have been vaccinated) until the number of active cases comes way down? My guess is yes, for several reasons. People won’t have immunity until 6 weeks or more after the first injection, so it will be important to stay masked and cautious for some time after being vaccinated. Some people, and we don’t know who they are, may not develop good immunity from the vaccine, so people should still take precautions while the virus has a high level of community spread. There will also be vaccine cheaters, who aren’t vaccinated, but will take advantage of looser restrictions to behave less cautiously, and will risk themselves and others. Once widespread vaccination has driven community spread to extremely low levels, then it will be safe to ease all restrictions. If the past is any indication, though, expect restrictions to prematurely be lifted. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/23 "2020-11-23T22:29:35Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > My guess is yes, for several reasons. People won’t have immunity until 6 weeks or more after the first injection, so it will be important to stay masked and cautious for some time after being vaccinated. Some people, and we don’t know who they are, may not develop good immunity from the vaccine, so people should still take precautions while the virus has a high level of community spread. There will also be vaccine cheaters, who aren’t vaccinated, but will take advantage of looser restrictions to behave less cautiously, and will risk themselves and others. That’s my guess, too, but I’d like to get it confirmed from an authoritative source. If that is the case, it’s going to be a tough sell to get people to go along with it. It’s natural to think “I’ve been vaccinated, so I’m free to go back to my pre-COVID life”. If masks and handwashing, and all the rest, are still going to be required even for people who’ve had the vaccine, public health officials might want to start talking about it now so we all get used to the idea. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/24 "2020-11-23T22:31:00Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > It was quoted recently in a topic around here that under 50 it’s an IFR of close to zero. Death isn’t the only long term undesirable consequence of COVID. Most people, even the elderly, will have mild to moderate cases that they recover from. 10-15% of people will have more severe cases, including [long term symptoms](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html), and possibly the recently hit the news suggestions that [they’ll get dumber](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v1). ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/25 "2020-11-23T22:35:12Z")
Your link doesn’t mention 10-15% anywhere that I see. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/26 "2020-11-23T22:44:28Z")
I don’t think the pandemic is going to end for probably 5-10 years or so. It’ll be an endless game of whack-a-mole what with ungoverned places like Somalia and Brazil and South Dakota. I think some of us can feel a little safer and better when we get the vaccine to medical workers, first responders, teachers, and fragile people. We can start thinking about sending the kids back to school and going to work. Personally, I see it being a very long time before I’ll do air travel as carefree as I used to do. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/27 "2020-11-23T22:57:20Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I don’t think the pandemic is going to end for probably 5-10 years or so. It’ll be an endless game of whack-a-mole what with ungoverned places like Somalia and Brazil and South Dakota. I figure in most civilized places, we’ll see daily case counts drop pretty hard at some point of the vaccination process, and some public health talking head will say we no longer have to wear masks, etc… And that’ll effectively be it. Even if nimrods in the hinterlands still don’t get vaccinated, it’ll be something more like measles or tuberculosis, where people do get it, but it’s uncommon, and most people end up vaccinated. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/28 "2020-11-23T23:07:29Z")
> [@bump](#): > > I figure in most civilized places, we’ll see daily case counts drop pretty hard at some point of the vaccination process, and some public health talking head will say we no longer have to wear masks, etc… Oh you can rest assured that as soon as any one person in the USA gets vaccinated, every single covidiot will create a laminated “official” samizdat card that says “I HAVE TEH VACCINATE YOU CANNOT MAKE ME WEAR ANY OF MASK”. There’s just no defense against people who magically think they _cannot_ die from covid. All these people are going to get the virus, some will get sick, and others will be sickened because of their choices. Realistically I think this virus is going to be banging around for 10 years just because so many people are dumber than dogshit, and mobilized. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/29 "2020-11-23T23:41:34Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Your link doesn’t mention 10-15% anywhere that I see. That comes from [this WHO slide show](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update-36-long-term-symptoms.pdf?sfvrsn=5d3789a6_2), which unfortunately doesn’t give additional citations. It does seem to go back to early reports in Wuhan of 80% of the people with COVID-19 having mild cases. It also is close to other factoids reported out there of 8 out of 10 people with COVID-19 having mild cases. The important point is that the two choices aren’t “perfectly fine” and “dead”. _Most_ people who get COVID, even most elderly people, will be fine. A large percentage will not be fine, even though they survive. “Not fine” may be weeks of severe illness, and months of long term symptoms. Obesity, cardiovascular problems, diabetes, and other things are risk factors for “not fine,” and in the US (and many other parts of the world) those are common conditions. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/30 "2020-11-23T23:48:48Z")
Right. Well when someone declares 10-15% of infections result in serious long term injury, I kinda expect a better citation to back it up. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2020, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/31 "2020-11-23T23:51:45Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Realistically I think this virus is going to be banging around for 10 years just because so many people are dumber than dogshit, and mobilized. I can see the world divided into two groups. Neither worry about COVID-19, but one group is at high risk of catching and spreading it, and the other is not. The anti-vax movement has been blamed in part on the lack of recent memory of horrible diseases. If you can remember as a child the danger of “polio season” when the disease would spread in the summer, your very likely to vaccinate your children. I hope that the immediateness of COVID will be enough to convince vaccine hesitant people into vaccination. With the disease in wide community spread almost everywhere in the US, by the time a vaccine is available lots of people will know somebody who had it. I hope that is enough of a personal connection to convince doubters and others into vaccination, too. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/32 "2020-11-24T00:03:41Z")
> [@echoreply](#): > > With the disease in wide community spread almost everywhere in the US, by the time a vaccine is available lots of people will know somebody who had it. I hope that is enough of a personal connection to convince doubters and others into vaccination, too. This is the thing I cry myself to sleep over. COVID is the ideal disease to embolden selfish idiots and assholes. Only kills the old, the sick, the weak (not really, but there’s just enough evidence to support people who want to believe it). If you hate that there are vulnerable people who depend on society’s generosity to survive, then COVID really is a godsend toward the purpose of lightening that load. ---
**Author:** ![echoreply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/echoreply/32/3641_2.png) [@echoreply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/echoreply)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/33 "2020-11-24T00:22:26Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Right. Well when someone declares 10-15% of infections result in serious long term injury, I kinda expect a better citation to back it up. [This seems to be a pretty good paper](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130), as it’s cited by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html) and others. > Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415) > Mild: 81% (36 160 cases) > Severe: 14% (6168 cases) > Critical: 5% (2087 case) That is for disease severity. Here is [an easy to read summary at the Mayo clinic](https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351#:~:text=COVID%2D19%20symptoms%20can,within%20a%20few%20weeks.) on long term effects. It has lots of references, if you want to dig more. > Most people who have coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) recover completely within a few weeks. But some people — even those who had mild versions of the disease — continue to experience symptoms after their initial recovery. Again, most people will be fine, but many will go on to have long term symptoms. ---
**Author:** ![Trom](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/958977/32.png) [@Trom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trom)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/34 "2020-11-24T01:39:57Z")
Here’s a preprint study looking at incidence of “long COVID.” [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20214494v1) > We analysed data from 4182 incident cases of COVID-19 who logged their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app. 558 (13.3%) had symptoms lasting \>28 days, 189 (4.5%) for \>8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for \>12 weeks. Unfortunately, the study doesn’t look beyond 3 months. Fortunately, symptoms lasting 3 months appears to be pretty rare. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/35 "2020-11-24T02:40:32Z")
> [@squeegee](#): > > The 1918-19 pandemic just went away and nobody knew why. It’s still here. > **[‘The 1918 flu is still with us’: The deadliest pandemic ever is still causing...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/01/1918-flu-pandemic-end/)** > > The pandemic ended in the early 1920s, but the virus left its mark for the next 100 years. ---
**Author:** ![squeegee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/squeegee/32/14537_2.png) [@squeegee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squeegee)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/36 "2020-11-24T02:44:30Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > It’s still here. From your link: > [@](#): > > “As many as 8 to 10 percent of all young adults then living may have been killed by the virus,” historian John M. Barry wrote in his best-selling book “[The Great Influenza](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491?ie=UTF8&tag=thewaspos09-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=0143036491).” _That_ ain’t still here. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/37 "2020-11-24T03:06:25Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > But if we start with them along about 2Q21, when will we be finished with them? 6 months? It takes a long time to vaccinate WAG 60 million people. We manage to vaccinate over twice that many Americans every year for the flu, and even that doesn’t take six months. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/38 "2020-11-24T03:09:32Z")
They are now something like 7-8 vaccines which have shown efficacy and safety. It’s likely that Covids an easily vaccinated disease. I think the analogy should be with testing. Back in Feb early March you needed a public health official say so to get a test and it was still rare. Then over time it became more and more widely available to the point that by late summer it was essentially on demand. I suspect something similar will happen here. The roll outs in January so think June or so before the average person can get it. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/39 "2020-11-24T03:43:38Z")
Really what I meant is that at some point, the vaccination numbers will hopefully be high enough to drop the case counts to a point where they’re low enough that the public health officials will say that we no longer have to wear masks, large gatherings are ok, etc… Of course, there will be a large contingent of morons who get vaccinated and go directly to the bar afterward or something stupid along those lines. Or who just assume that the first dose is all they need, and that they’re now invincible or whatever. At some point though, if enough people are vaccinated, especially the vulnerable and essential workers, it becomes the problem of the fools who don’t get vaccinated. You pays your money, you takes your chances and all that. Not much pre-emptive sympathy here for those people. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2020, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229/40 "2020-11-24T04:58:54Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Really what I meant is that at some point, the vaccination numbers will hopefully be high enough to drop the case counts to a point where they’re low enough that the public health officials will say that we no longer have to wear masks, large gatherings are ok, etc… Vaccination numbers don’t need to get very high for the disease to become a controllable problem. At a certain point even if its endemic, it becomes just another disease. You might hear of an outbreak in some place or the other on the news and wonder if your vaccination is still effective and then move on. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-does-the-pandemic-end/926229.md?page=3)