# How effective was Obama's Iran speech at American University? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 7, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274 "2015-08-07T21:37:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/81 "2015-08-11T21:30:45Z")
And again, Khamanei is himself a hardliner, so if the hardliners are opposed, he will be as well. If he favors the deal, they’ll fall in line right behind him. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/82 "2015-08-11T21:37:05Z")
Ah, the “no true Iranian” fallacy. ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/83 "2015-08-11T21:39:23Z")
What point are you trying to make, **adaher**? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/84 "2015-08-11T22:12:27Z")
There are two power bases in the country: the elected government, which is less hardline and officially negotiates with other countries, and the real power, which is the ayatollah and the military. The hardliners call the actual shots. There is no outcome in which the elected government defeats the hardliners. Either the hardliners will approve of the deal, or there will be no deal. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/85 "2015-08-11T22:35:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are two power bases in the country: the elected government, which is less hardline and officially negotiates with other countries, and the real power, which is the ayatollah and the military. The hardliners call the actual shots. There is no outcome in which the elected government defeats the hardliners. Either the hardliners will approve of the deal, or there will be no deal. There are hardliners other than the ayatollahs, and hardliners who disagree with other hardliners. In Iran, the most conservative and least moderate voices right now appear to be opposing the deal, while the more moderate and less conservative voices support the deal. Those in the US who are opposing the deal are “making common cause” (if not on purpose) with the ‘most hardline’ people in Iran. And as I’ve said before, Iran will be the ones who look bad if they reject the deal. I’m not worried about how Iran looks – I’m worried about how we look. And we will look very bad with most of the world (and the vast majority of our allies) if we reject the deal. So whatever Iran ends up doing, we should sign and put forward the deal, since the outcomes with the US accepting the deal are much better for the US than the outcomes with the US rejecting the deal (in my opinion, at least). ---
**Author:** ![Yookeroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yookeroo/32/323_2.png) [@Yookeroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yookeroo)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/86 "2015-08-11T23:02:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not fear to recognize what you can do something about and what you can’t. There’s a reason that issues like crime and terrorism have more visceral resonance among voters than social programs. If I’m 80 years old, I can live with a little less Medicare. What I can’t live with is not being able to go to the market down the street because someone will beat me up and rob me. That’s not fear. It’s recognition that I can adjust to lower Medicare benefits easier than I can adjust to unsafe streets. You think ISIS will prevent you from going to the store when you’re 80? Ummmmmm…OK. \ ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/87 "2015-08-11T23:03:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are two power bases in the country: the elected government, which is less hardline and officially negotiates with other countries, and the real power, which is the ayatollah and the military. The hardliners call the actual shots. There is no outcome in which the elected government defeats the hardliners. Either the hardliners will approve of the deal, or there will be no deal. Khamenei is not omnipotent. If he opposes a deal overwhelmingly supported by a majority of Iranians, he will do so at his own peril. So he will probably come out in support of it. (My guess is that he allowed Rouhani to try because he was betting Rouhani would fail. That bet did not play out.) That doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of other “hardliners” whose purposes are served by railing against the deal as an intolerable capitulation to the west. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2015, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/88 "2015-08-11T23:21:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Republicans are arguing that Iran’s rocket program should not be messed with and that Iran has a right to enrichment? No, that’s why I used the word “mirror.” Both Iran hawks in the US and hardliners in Iran say the other side can’t be trusted and that their side gave up way too much. Hardliners in both countries prefer continued confrontation to the current deal. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/89 "2015-08-12T01:30:12Z")
The Atlantic has some good reporting on the debate within Iran. > [@](#): > > Conservative opponents of the deal tend to emphasize its near-term negative security consequences. They point out that the agreement will roll back Iran’s nuclear program, which was intended to deter an American or Israeli attack, and thereby increase Iran’s vulnerability. They have denounced the system for inspecting Iranian nuclear facilities as an intelligence bonanza for the CIA. And they have issued blistering attacks on the incompetence of Iran’s negotiating team, claiming that negotiators caved on many key issues and were outmaneuvered by more clever and sinister American diplomats. > **[What Do Iranians Think of the Iran Deal?](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/iran-deal-politics-rouhani-khamenei/400985/)** > > Comparing the debate in America and the Islamic Republic—and why it matters ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/90 "2015-08-12T06:24:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There are two power bases in the country: the elected government, which is less hardline and officially negotiates with other countries, and the real power, which is the ayatollah and the military. The hardliners call the actual shots. There is no outcome in which the elected government defeats the hardliners. Either the hardliners will approve of the deal, or there will be no deal. OK. I see several signs that the Ayatollah approves of the deal - apart from the fact that the deal happened in the first place. For starters, Iran’s Press Supervisory Board has already begun [cracking down on “hardline” media outlines critical of the deal](http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-media-nuclear-deal-suspend-harline-publications/27167800.html), “suspend[ing] a hard-line publication and warn[ing] two other like-minded outlets.” These include the ultra-conservative _Kayhan_, mentioned in the _Atlantic_-quote I provided in post #79. From [here](http://www.juancole.com/2015/08/silence-criticism-nuclear.html): > [@](#): > > The moves against news outlets critical of the nuclear deal come several days after Iran’s government reportedly told media privately not to criticize the agreement. The guidelines, a purported copy of which surfaced on the Internet late last month, instructed editors of newspapers and news agencies to praise the deal and note “big achievements on the nuclear program as the result of the deal.” On Saturday, “Iran’s top soldier” - its chief of staff, Major-Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, who is close to the Ayatollah and was appointed by the Ayatollah in the first place - came out in support of the deal. In doing so, he is essentially warning the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, and other high-ranking critics of the deal, to back the fuck down and take a chill pill. Everyone from [Bloomberg](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-05/iran-top-general-congratulates-khamenei-on-nation-s-nuclear-deal) to [Juan Cole](http://www.juancole.com/2015/08/general-endorses-nuclear.html) has interpreted this as a sign that the Ayatollah supports the deal. The real danger to the deal is from the American side, and even that won’t make much a difference to, well, the rest of us, who are eager to resume trade with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/91 "2015-08-12T08:52:44Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > There are hardliners other than the ayatollahs, and hardliners who disagree with other hardliners. In Iran, the most conservative and least moderate voices right now appear to be opposing the deal, while the more moderate and less conservative voices support the deal. Those in the US who are opposing the deal are “making common cause” (if not on purpose) with the ‘most hardline’ people in Iran. And as I’ve said before, Iran will be the ones who look bad if they reject the deal. I’m not worried about how Iran looks – I’m worried about how we look. And we will look very bad with most of the world (and the vast majority of our allies) if we reject the deal. So whatever Iran ends up doing, we should sign and put forward the deal, since the outcomes with the US accepting the deal are much better for the US than the outcomes with the US rejecting the deal (in my opinion, at least). Okay, so Republicans are in league with the hardliners who want to reject the deal because they would never want to make a deal with the Great Satan, and Obama is in league with the hardliners who want more money for Hezbollah and see a deal as the best way to defeat the Great Satan. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 9:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/92 "2015-08-12T09:08:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Okay, so Republicans are in league with the hardliners who want to reject the deal because they would never want to make a deal with the Great Satan, and Obama is in league with the hardliners who want more money for Hezbollah and see a deal as the best way to defeat the Great Satan. Yes, apart from all the stuff you made up which is most of what you said. Are you incapable of considering that Iranian politicians might actually be competent politicians who, behind all the rabble-rousing rhetoric, are capable of agreeing a deal that presents the best outcomes for their country? “More money for Hezbollah” and “the best way to defeat the Great Satan”? How about “removal of sanctions, thus eliminating a major suppressant on the economy” and “the best option for regional stabilization”? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 9:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/93 "2015-08-12T09:43:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Okay, so Republicans are in league with the hardliners who want to reject the deal because they would never want to make a deal with the Great Satan, and Obama is in league with the hardliners who want more money for Hezbollah and see a deal as the best way to defeat the Great Satan. No, no one is “in league” with anyone. Where do you get this crap? Do you know what “in league” means? ---
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 9:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/94 "2015-08-12T09:44:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Okay, so Republicans are in league with the hardliners who want to reject the deal because they would never want to make a deal with the Great Satan, and Obama is in league with the hardliners who want more money for Hezbollah and see a deal as the best way to defeat the Great Satan. Which _specific_ Iranian hardliner supports the deal in the belief that its implementation will mean “more money for Hezbollah”? Which _specific_ Iranian hardliner supports the deal because they see it as “the best way to defeat the Great Satan”? In both cases, please name names, list rank, and present actual quotes. For example: When coming out in favour of the deal, Firouzabadi listed no less than sixteen advantages to the deal. Was “more money for Hezbollah” one of those sixteen advantages? Was “this is the best way to defeat the Great Satan”? Thanks in advance. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2015, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274/95 "2015-08-12T11:38:30Z")
[Amy Klobuchar](http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/14/whip-count-where-the-senate-stands-on-the-iran-deal/) is now in the “yes” column. The deal-supporters now need 5 of the remaining 13 (almost all Democrats) undecided/unknown. I think they’ll get most of them. Maybe even enough to prevent cloture vote. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-effective-was-obamas-iran-speech-at-american-university/727274.md?page=4)