It all depends on, as was mentioned, how fast we upgrade our communications infrastructure. Right now, there are two competing systems: basically, piggybacking data on cable TV lines, and piggybacking it on phone lines. Both have finite bandwidth that we’ve already hit. The only way to get more is to pay more money.
So it isn’t a technology-driven question as much as how fast a computer will be - but like how fast a computer will be, it is a question of application. When someone comes up with a necessary REASON for the higher-bandwidth lines to be laid en masse, it’ll happen, and likely as a merger of telecommunications (TV), telephone, and Internet - it’ll make TV phones realistic, it’ll replace cable TV and satellite TV, and it’ll replace all networking. But it will rely on that being replaced community-wide, need to be rewired in every community, and it’ll cost a lot at first.
Isn’t this around already? I believe it’s called cable TV.
The fastest I’ve heard of is dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM . The article states that
I have no idea when or where this will be widely available, but if terabit capacity is already close to a reality, then by 2025 Anthracite’s cite of terabits/sec may be too low (petabits/sec anyone?). I can’t imagine why you would need that, and I suspect demand will determine speed more than technology.
Someone will probably find a use for it though, and it will probably be porn related
DWDM allows for multiple “colours” or signals of equivalent speeds co-existing and being co-transmitted along the same fibre. So you can have 40 signals of 10G on single fibre systems with a total capacity of 400G. You don’t have a 400G signal.
DWDM is mainly used for continental spans over optical amplifier systems. It is moving into the area as we speak (type). Which makes sense. You DONT need to lay new fibre (ideally) you simply add a new colour (signal) onto existing fibre and voila!
Of course this still doesn’t help all the people off the main trunks. The last mile problem is the bottleneck. My guess is a wireless solution, no expensive cable to lay. Privacy becomes a bit of an issue though.
Personally I feel that in 20 years we will be dealing with other new technologies that may completely eclipse today’s. I don’t suppose people will even think of data flow in terms of bandwidth anymore as it will simply be on much like a light switch. You never really worry about how much power you draw from a wall socket (unless of course you’re me and have 400 devices plugged into it).
I certainly hope it’s too low. Dammit, I want my petabits!
To answer the query of “what will we ever do with all that speed”, consider this - hard drives. Hard drive space has increased a thousandfold for the price in what - 10 years? How many people have a 100 GB of space on a machine that is currently approaching full? Almost all the machines here have 80 GB drives, and they are typically 75% full.
The phenomenon is akin to gas expanding to fill a void. I don’t think that it’s a matter of “how can this speed be actually used?”, as opposed to “what can we do to leverage that speed to make a new business or entertainment model?”
