# How Fucked is the Dem Party? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 29, 2013, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576 "2013-10-29T18:35:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/21 "2013-10-29T19:54:52Z")
I’d very much appreciate it if the OP would make some predictions for the 2016 election. That kind of thing is always entertaining. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/22 "2013-10-29T19:55:09Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Ron Fournier. LOL. No shit, right? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/23 "2013-10-29T20:05:34Z")
Another All-American, bullet-headed Saxon mother’s son… ---
**Author:** ![IceQube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/dfb087/32.png) [@IceQube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IceQube)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/24 "2013-10-29T20:07:09Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Ron Fournier. LOL. I’d respect someone who invented the Fourier transformation. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/25 "2013-10-29T20:12:14Z")
I like it. “The Fournier Transformation.” But I think Dennis Miller invented it. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/26 "2013-10-29T20:23:39Z")
Wait, you’re citing [AMERICAN THINKER](http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a562/ChimeraPic/AmTh_zps72e00c55.jpg)??? (Not a link to American Thinker) There is nothing of value or truth in that publication. Citing it in intelligent and civilized conversation is about as useful (and shameful) as flinging poo. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/27 "2013-10-29T20:23:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > As that assessment is based on public reaction to the ACA, I’d say, definitely not fucked. By November 2014 the ACA will be the most popular government program since Social Security, mainly because people with private insurance will see their premiums go **down.** (Of course, people with employment-linked insurance won’t even notice that.) Dude… I live in Tampa. Can I visit you, because you’re obviously smoking the greatest shit known to man, and I would totally like some of that. Never mind the dubious assumption that most people will see their premiums go down (seriously). What about the fact that a projected 40 - 67% of the currently privately insured will have their policies cancelled and forced into coverages which are both less comprehensive and more expensive? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/28 "2013-10-29T20:25:21Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > What about the fact that a projected 40 - 67% of the currently privately insured will have their policies cancelled and forced into coverages which are both less comprehensive and more expensive? Yeah! And what about the projection that Sarah Palin will ride a dinosaur into the RNC Convention, devouring all RINOS and restoring true glory to the party?! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/29 "2013-10-29T20:27:43Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Can I visit you, because you’re obviously smoking the greatest shit known to man, and I would totally like some of that. Not appropriate for this forum. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/30 "2013-10-29T20:28:39Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Yeah! And what about the projection that Sarah Palin will ride a dinosaur into the RNC Convention, devouring all RINOS and restoring true glory to the party?! You forgot the part about her hat. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/31 "2013-10-29T20:32:08Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > There’s a good chance of a three way race for the president in 2016. What, you think the TP will split from the GOP and go third-party, or Ralph Nader will remind us he yet lives, or what? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/32 "2013-10-29T20:40:56Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Yeah! And what about the projection that Sarah Palin will ride a dinosaur into the RNC Convention, devouring all RINOS and restoring true glory to the party?! Can’t say I’m familiar with that projection. (I’m guessing it’s safe to assume your above quoted response as a “no comment” type of deal?) > [@Bob's Zombie](#): > > Not appropriate for this forum. It was a totally legitimate question. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/33 "2013-10-29T20:44:43Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Can’t say I’m familiar with that projection. > > (I’m guessing it’s safe to assume your above quoted response as a “no comment” type of deal?) No, I was gently poking fun at the notion that anyone has seriously projected that 40 - 67% of the currently privately insured will have their policies cancelled. I suspect you’re missing a word in that sentence or mis-remembering a statistic. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/34 "2013-10-29T20:56:57Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > No, I was gently poking fun at the notion that anyone has seriously projected that 40 - 67% of the currently privately insured will have their policies cancelled. Why would **any** have their policies canceled? Is the ACA system going to somehow drive the health-insurance companies out of business? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/35 "2013-10-29T20:59:53Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Why would **any** have their policies canceled? Is the ACA system going to somehow drive the health-insurance companies out of business? Companies are canceling policies that do not satisfy the individual mandate, generally low-benefit policies that lost their grandfathered status because of (sometimes quite minor) changes. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/36 "2013-10-29T21:09:41Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > It was a totally legitimate question. So, told to stop effectively threadshitting, you not only continue, but you make a nonsense assertion that your the post for which you were admonished was “totally legitimate.” This is a Warning to refrain from such behavior. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/37 "2013-10-29T21:16:49Z")
> [@IceQube](#): > > What happened to the Republicans? Well, they have managed to alienate many of us economically right-leaning moderates with policies and rhetoric that a reasonable person might describe as “insane”. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/38 "2013-10-29T21:37:59Z")
> [@Bob's Zombie](#): > > Also they [the GOP] lost the last two presidential elections… Better still - the Republican candidate got fewer votes than the Democrat in five of the last six Presidential elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2008 and 2012). ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/39 "2013-10-29T21:51:30Z")
If the OP quotes a post quoting the national Journal, then I can quote a post from the [National Journal.](http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/why-2014-is-do-or-die-for-the-gop-20131028) > [@](#): > > Assuming that all other races go the direction that they are widely expected to go, and Republicans win the Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia contests, the GOP then has to win five out of those final six contests. To put it differently, even if Republicans hold Georgia and McConnell wins in Kentucky (neither is a sure bet at all), the GOP would still have to knock out three Democratic incumbents, which is as many as they have unseated in the last five elections combined (since 2004, the only incumbent Democratic senators to lose general elections were Blanche Lincoln, Tom Daschle, and Russ Feingold. If the GOP loses either Georgia or Kentucky, they would have to beat all four Democratic incumbents up in 2014 to win a majority. > > The reason next year is so make-or-break for Senate Republicans is because in 2016, when all of the seats they won in 2010 come up—they netted a six-seat net gain that year—there will be 24 GOP seats up, compared with only 10 for Democrats, leading to some serious Republican overexposure. Seven of the 24 GOP senators up are hailing from states that Obama carried in 2012. After having had plentiful Democratic targets in 2012 and 2014, it will be Republicans in 2016 who will have the most incumbents in the crosshairs. > > All of this is to say that Republicans really have to do well in the Senate elections in 2014, largely because they will have few opportunities for gains in 2016, a year in which they will be playing defense, not offense. This means that Republicans cannot nominate some of the more exotic candidates that they nominated in Delaware and Nevada in 2010, or weak candidates with weak campaigns as they did that year in Colorado. Comparable candidates to Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock, the 2012 Missouri and Indiana candidates whose nominations effectively meant that the GOP seized defeat from the jaws of victory in multiple states, should be avoided. So, the 2014 Senate elections really are important. That’s called political analysis. It’ll beat political email every time. The Democrats are not fucked. Why? Because they get to run against real world Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576/40 "2013-10-29T22:07:15Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Ron Fournier. LOL. On his Wikipedia page, it says that Glenn Greenwald has criticized Fournier for behaving in a “petulant” manner. Hooooleeey moley, if Glenn Greenwald thinks someone is petulant, I take notice! Anyway, the Democratic Party isn’t that fucked. The 2014 elections will be decided one seat at a time, and the alternative right now seems to be the most unpopular political movement going, the Tea Party, versus the moribund faction of the Republican Party that’s actually sane. So, the sane branch of the GOP is on life support, meaning people will have to choose between Obama’s party and the Tea Party. Does anyone living on the planet earth think that there’s going to be more Tea Partiers in Congress in 2015 than there is today? No way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-fucked-is-the-dem-party/672576.md?page=3)