This summarizes my feelings remarkably well. Letterman lost it years ago, and his constant tourette’s-style repetition of jokes, faces, words, and bits is intolerable today. Leno tries just to be funny, rather than hip or edgy. The one time out of 100 when hip or edgy works, it works very well, but the other 99 losers would keep me from watching.
Conan has the worst of both worlds. He’s mined his small bag of tricks until they are completely paid out and are painfully repetitious, but he is constrained from doing anything that’s not hip or edgy. I suppose a new viewer would like him until they realize this, but I don’t see how he retains old viewers.
He is often the funniest at doing pure interviews, with Leno the worst. Their bits are just the opposite. If you could find a host who could combine the good parts you’d have gold. Craig Ferguson comes closest, with a good monolog and funny interviews but his comedy bits are too often dreadful. Maybe if you moved him earlier and forced him to be less stupid-silly he’d blossom.
I will be surprised if they actually sign Conan for The Tonight Show. Yes, it’s said to be all but a done deal that Jay is going to retire soon, and Conan will take the helm, but Conan will be about 45 then and in another 5 years, that “cool, my baby” hipster shtick coming from a 50 year old man is going to resonate about as well as Paris Hilton anchoring the CBS News.
The networks want a younger audience, making Conan a poor long-term investment. I wouldn’t be surprised to see NBC re-sign Jay for two extra years, while the execs hope for his younger replacement to materialize. Conan might then stomp off the NBC set and head to CBS or ABC. Either way, I can’t see Conan reinventing himself and his current repertoire isn’t going to play in Peoria in, say, 10 years, so you can imagine how he will play in the major markets.