# How has same sex marriage affected the five countries who have legalized it for a decade or more? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 12, 2016, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309 "2016-10-12T03:33:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/81 "2016-10-14T20:05:06Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > . . . changes such as were predicted for SSM came to pass, including an increase in OOW children. . . . What I don’t get is why? Why would same sex marriage lead to more out-of-wedlock children being born? Were all those frustrated gays somehow preventing people from having babies? Did legalizing their marriages somehow remove this vital social protection? What’s the mechanism? It seems like saying that eating more beef produces more high-school dropouts. How? ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/82 "2016-10-14T20:07:51Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > :dubious: Let’s try this again > > The US and Canada had effectively identical rates of children born out of wedlock in 1990. > By 2005, the US had a rate had changed from 27% to 37% while Canada’s had grown from 28% to 30%. > > You’ll note the relatively large shift in the US plays out without any legalization of gay marriage. > > Then the rate in the US stabilizes at 41% roughly when NH and NY legalize gay marriage. > > So you’re argument “gay marriage legalization erodes the number of children born into conventional marriage” fails the historical review of US/Canadian child births from 1990 to 2005 (erosion happens without GM legalization) and fails the predictive view as there is no increase in US children born out of wedlock following legalization in NH/NY. > > So if there is an influence it is likely masked by other larger drivers of family composition like access to birth control, increasing common law family structures and education patterns in women. > > Of course I’m _not_ making any argument related to gay marriage’s impact so necessarily I don’t have to prove anything. I simply have to show that your arguments are unconvincing. You find the temporary leveling off after two states recognition of gay marriage by two states more convincing than a 13% jump in eight years after a dozen years of no growth? That seems like motivated reasoning to me. It is not my burden to prove anything. The OP merely asks if the bad things those of us who are anti-gay marriage predicted would happen have happened. The answer is an unequivocal yes and no one has disputed that. It would be possible to say that we were right for the wrong reasons but it would be impossible to dispute that we were right in our prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/83 "2016-10-14T20:14:20Z")
I’m confused. The US sees a growth from 27% to 41% for children born out of conventional marriage _before any states legalize SSM_ and this is a validation of your position that SSM would erode the conventional family structure? ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/84 "2016-10-14T20:15:18Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > What I don’t get is why? Why would same sex marriage lead to more out-of-wedlock children being born? Were all those frustrated gays somehow preventing people from having babies? Did legalizing their marriages somehow remove this vital social protection? What’s the mechanism? It seems like saying that eating more beef produces more high-school dropouts. How? Because it changes the definition of marriage from one that is concerned with the formation of a stable familial environment in which to raise children into one that is concerned with the expression of love toward a partner. Since having the state bless your love is not a concern for many young people fewer seek it because they don’t see the purpose in it. You seem to be surprised how changing the definition of something can affect people’s attitude toward it. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/85 "2016-10-14T20:17:54Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > I’m confused. The US sees a growth from 27% to 41% for children born out of conventional marriage _before any states legalize SSM_ and this is a validation of your position that SSM would erode the conventional family structure? That Canada’s out of wedlock rate increased is validation. The US rate before gay marriage can tell us nothing of the effects of gay marriage. If you are confused try [this](https://www.brainpop.com/science/scientificinquiry/scientificmethod/). ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/86 "2016-10-14T20:27:07Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Do you think attitudes toward marriage have an effect on out of wedlock births? Possibly. > [@](#): > > Do you think the gay marriage movement has had an effect on how people think about marriage? Possibly. > [@](#): > > If the answer is yes to both, then logically one can affect the other. Okay, now _prove_ it. > [@](#): > > Of course judging by your “arguments” in this thread, logic may not be your forte. Hah, nice try, ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/87 "2016-10-14T20:29:11Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > If you are confused try [this](https://www.brainpop.com/science/scientificinquiry/scientificmethod/). I was vaguely certain “this” was going to be an animated gif of a man hitting himself in the head with a frying pan. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/88 "2016-10-14T20:31:42Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Because it changes the definition of marriage from one that is concerned with the formation of a stable familial environment in which to raise children into one that is concerned with the expression of love toward a partner. Since having the state bless your love is not a concern for many young people fewer seek it because they don’t see the purpose in it. > You seem to be surprised how changing the definition of something can affect people’s attitude toward it. :dubious: What it shows is the % was primarily driven by factors \*other \*than SSM and those factors may be continuing currently with or without any influence from SSM. Any influence of SSM on the would be on your side to show. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/89 "2016-10-14T20:33:03Z")
> [@thelurkinghorror](#): > > The rise of Justin Bieber followed SSM. And as every scientist knows, correlation equals causation. But what about Celine Dion and William Shatner (to say nothing of Shania Twain)? They pre-date SSM, so you’re going to have to do better than that… ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/90 "2016-10-14T20:51:47Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > ISTM that the people moving the goalposts in this thread are the pro-SSM posters. > > The OP asked whether any changes such as were predicted for SSM came to pass, including an increase in OOW children. This was followed by a whole bunch of posts declaring that no, everything had stayed the same. No, the counter-arguments were that the rate of out-of-wedlock births increased _regardless_ of gay marriage, and the mechanism of how gay marriage would have affected out-of-wedlock births at all remains unclear and unproven. > [@](#): > > Now it turns out that WRT one specific prediction at least, the evidence is at least inconclusive as to whether the predicted impact happened. So you’re back to square one. Yes, but it’s puddleglum’s argument that has never moved from square one, not those of SSM proponents, because he is advancing an idea that _seems_ to make sense to him but has offered no evidence in support of it. > [@](#): > > People who then try to reframe the discussion as being about whether the link to SSM was conclusively proven are moving the goal posts, as that was not the initial position of the pro-SSM people in this thread, and apparent premise of the OP. > > [FWIW, I’m personally skeptical as to whether SSM had any impact of this sort. But the evidence is not inconsistent with this argument.] The OP is asking _if_ a number of factors were affected by gay marriage. Even puddleglum hasn’t demonstrated that one of those factors (out-of-wedlock births) has been, but he maintains that it “seems” to have been, while offering no evidence at all in support. If anything, the OP’s challenge is to SSM opponents who claimed that gay marriage _would_ make some or all the listed elements worse, and since puddleglum has invoked the scientific method, let’s follow through on that: Null hypothesis: Gay marriage has no negative social effect. Alternate hypothesis: Gay marriage has some negative social effect. Experiment: Establish social-effect benchmarks and compare countries that have gay marriage with those who do not have gay marriage. If the null hypothesis is false, we should see a significant difference, the gay marriage countries scoring lower on those benchmarks. Analysis: No significant difference established. Conclusion: Do not reject Null Hypothesis. We lack sufficient evidence at this time to establish that gay marriage has some negative social effect. Puddleglum’s mistake is to look for evidence that _supports_ his belief, when he should be looking for evidence that _disproves_ it. If one seeks the former, it’s too easy to cherry-pick, and if it wasn’t out-of-wedlock births, it could just as easily be something else. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/91 "2016-10-14T21:00:30Z")
By the way… > [@puddleglum](#): > > That Canada’s out of wedlock rate increased is validation. The US rate before gay marriage can tell us nothing of the effects of gay marriage. > If you are confused try [this](https://www.brainpop.com/science/scientificinquiry/scientificmethod/). Please don’t invoke the scientific method while claiming control groups (in this case, births in the pre-gay-marriage U.S.) are meaningless. That makes me sad, like someone arguing for nuclear power while rejecting physics. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/92 "2016-10-14T21:51:37Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > It seems like saying that eating more beef produces more high-school dropouts. How? An increased demand for beef leads to more jobs in slaughterhouses. Young boys are attracted to the cash and glamour of work on the killing floor, leading to them quitting school and taking those jobs. BTW, BigBeef denies this to be the case. ETA: This is discussed in the tell-all exposé **Bringing Home The Bacon**. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/93 "2016-10-14T21:56:18Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Because it changes the definition of marriage from one that is concerned with the formation of a stable familial environment in which to raise children into one that is concerned with the expression of love toward a partner. Since having the state bless your love is not a concern for many young people fewer seek it because they don’t see the purpose in it. > You seem to be surprised how changing the definition of something can affect people’s attitude toward it. I don’t see it. Something someone else does somehow magically causes you to skip the part about commitment. (If marriage was that weak, then to hell with it!) (Besides, marriage was already “re-defined” into extinction by the ease of divorce.) It all sounds like a weak-water excuse for gay bashing. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/94 "2016-10-14T21:58:44Z")
> [@kayaker](#): > > An increased demand for beef leads to more jobs in slaughterhouses. Young boys are attracted to the cash and glamour of work on the killing floor, leading to them quitting school and taking those jobs. > > BTW, BigBeef denies this to be the case. > > ETA: This is discussed in the tell-all exposé **Bringing Home The Bacon**. I love you and want to give you a side of beef and a hug! ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2016, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/95 "2016-10-14T22:15:36Z")
Awww… **puddleglum** ’s making me nostalgic! It’s been a while since the right-wing nutbaggery about SSM has shown its face around here. ---
**Author:** ![Uzi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/91b2a8/32.png) [@Uzi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uzi)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/96 "2016-10-15T00:16:13Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Because it changes the definition of marriage from one that is concerned with the formation of a stable familial environment in which to raise children into one that is concerned with the expression of love toward a partner. Uh, why do you think the first definition is more valid than the second? Who are you to define what marriage is to other people and the reasons they enter into it? ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/97 "2016-10-15T01:17:41Z")
More like: Societal norms shifted from strictly ‘requiring’ marriage when reproducing. And the sky did not fall. Which led to an openness and aceptance that helped make SSM a much easier sell. I think you got it backwards! ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/98 "2016-10-15T14:55:17Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Because it changes the definition of marriage from one that is concerned with the formation of a stable familial environment in which to raise children into one that is concerned with the expression of love toward a partner. Since having the state bless your love is not a concern for many young people fewer seek it because they don’t see the purpose in it. > You seem to be surprised how changing the definition of something can affect people’s attitude toward it. So you’re saying two same sex people cannot form “a stable family environment in which to raise children?” Bullshit!!! Plenty of gay and lesbian couples are parenting, and no damage has come from it. And plenty of opposite sex couples do not have children, or are not raising them in a “stable family environment.” I’d rather David Butka and Neil Patrick Harris have children than the parents of Lattie McGee (google if you dare; I’ll not provide a link). ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/99 "2016-10-15T15:47:41Z")
Following up on **Annie Xmas** ’s excellent post, I would comment that one of the reasons for the push for same-sex marriage from GLBT communities was precisely because marriage provides support for the creation of families. Gays and lesbians do in fact have children, by various ways, and being able to marry means that both members of the couple will be recognised by law as the parents of the children, rather than one being the parent and the other having no more rights and obligations to the children than a casual roommate. This discussion highlights to me what I think is the fundamental flaw in **Puddleglum** ’s argument: that there is one and only one purpose for marriage, and that purpose was raising kids. In my experience, most young couples (and I was in that group, once upon a time 🙂 ) get married because they want to spend their lives with that wonderful person they have found. Sure, kids are a possibility that is always considered, but marriage starts with that union, in my experience. Marriage has a number of purposes, in my opinion. That union of the couple is high on the list, whether or not kids ever come along. If there are kids, them marriage and all the attendant laws and customs provide a strong support for that family. But I don’t think it’s ever been the case that the sole purpose of marriage is to provide a support system for the kids. Marriage starts with the couple wanting to be together. Expanding marriage to include same-sex couples is completely consistent with that purpose. ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/100 "2016-10-15T17:38:14Z")
Thank you. An excellent book on the issue is [Family Values](https://www.amazon.com/Family-Values-Two-Moms-Their/dp/0679421882/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1476552879&sr=1-3&keywords=phyllis+burke) by Phyllis Burke. When her partner Cheryl was inseminated and gave birth to a son Jesse, Phyllis thought she’d be the “Aunty.” However, Jesse, Cheryl and even Phyllis’s parents knew she was Jesse’s mother. If we’re going to exclude gay people from marriage because they can’t have children, then we should exclude ALL infertile people. No post-menopausal women, no men with low sperm counts, no impotent men, whatever. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309.md?page=6)