# How has same sex marriage affected the five countries who have legalized it for a decade or more? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 12, 2016, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309 "2016-10-12T03:33:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/101 "2016-10-17T14:44:27Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > By the way… > > Please don’t invoke the scientific method while claiming control groups (in this case, births in the pre-gay-marriage U.S.) are meaningless. That makes me sad, like someone arguing for nuclear power while rejecting physics. Perhaps it would make you happy to learn that in order to be a control the group would have to be similar enough to the treatment group for a valid comparison. I used to judge the science fair for my brother’s 4th grade science classes. If some of those kids can understand the scientific method, I’m sure eventually you can get it too. Keep your chin up. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/102 "2016-10-17T15:25:58Z")
There really are no words.:rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![moes\_lotion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@moes\_lotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moes_lotion)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/103 "2016-10-17T17:04:07Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > That Canada’s out of wedlock rate increased is validation. The US rate before gay marriage can tell us nothing of the effects of gay marriage. > If you are confused try [this](https://www.brainpop.com/science/scientificinquiry/scientificmethod/). From the data reported by **Grey** , the out of wedlock birthrate in Canada in 2000 was 32%, then in 2005 (after about 2 years of legalized same sex marriages) the rate dropped to 30%, but 5 years later in 2010 the steady increase prior to SSM reasserted itself and the rate stabilized at 33%. You can’t claim this as a validation of the prediction that legalizing same sex marriages leads to more out of wedlock births, any more than I can claim that when Canada did legalize SSM it caused a temporary reversal in the long term trend of increasing numbers of out of wedlock births. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/104 "2016-10-17T20:11:53Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > Perhaps it would make you happy to learn that in order to be a control the group would have to be similar enough to the treatment group for a valid comparison. > I used to judge the science fair for my brother’s 4th grade science classes. If some of those kids can understand the scientific method, I’m sure eventually you can get it too. > Keep your chin up. If you don’t have a sufficiently good control group, your experiment will never establish causation. While I’m sure being able to pin a blue ribbon on a nine-year-old’s model volcano gives you some authority on ribbons and volcanoes, neither of those is statistical analysis. I’m happy in the sense that if what you’ve presented is the best argument against gay marriage, I can feel confident that legalizing gay marriage was the right decision for society. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/105 "2016-10-17T20:54:19Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > ISTM that the people moving the goalposts in this thread are the pro-SSM posters. > > The OP asked whether any changes such as were predicted for SSM came to pass, including an increase in OOW children. This was followed by a whole bunch of posts declaring that no, everything had stayed the same. Now it turns out that WRT one specific prediction at least, the evidence is at least inconclusive as to whether the predicted impact happened. So you’re back to square one. > > People who then try to reframe the discussion as being about whether the link to SSM was conclusively proven are moving the goal posts, as that was not the initial position of the pro-SSM people in this thread, and apparent premise of the OP. > > [FWIW, I’m personally skeptical as to whether SSM had any impact of this sort. But the evidence is not inconsistent with this argument.] Not to me. If you’re gonna take a purely literal interpretation of the OP, then you have to restrict yourself to the actual things the OP brought up. The OP doesn’t ask for any possible prediction, but names the ones that they are considering. There’s no “or other calamity.” If you actually read the OP for its meaning, then it is a statement about how same sex marriage has not caused problems, and challenging anyone to prove this wrong. Thus refuting a dubious claim about a correlation is perfectly on topic. Furthermore, as a board against fighting ignorance, arguing against false claims of causation from correlation is also inherently part of any thread, whether the OP mentions it or not. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2016, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/106 "2016-10-17T21:12:34Z")
Plus, the thread title implies causation: that same-sex marriage has affected the country, not simply that there has been a change following same-sex marriage. ---
**Author:** ![Maastricht](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e57/32.png) [@Maastricht](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maastricht)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/107 "2016-10-18T08:26:43Z")
As for the Netherlands, puddlegum has a point. In the Netherlands in the 60’s, one in 30 kids was born out of wedlock. Last year it was one in 3. However, nowadays such Dutch kids are born in a steady two parent family: their parents just don’t want to get married. Marriage has been out of fashion for at least two decades here. But that has had very little effect on the longevity of relationships, or on single parenthood. Verzonden vanaf mijn iPhone met Tapatalk Pro ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/108 "2016-10-18T13:14:50Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > I always hear American preachers and politicians talk about how same sex marriage will lead to horrific outcomes. > > There are five countries who have had legalized same-sex marriage for a decade or more: > [ul] > [li]The Netherlands[/li][li]Belgium[/li][li]Canada[/li][li]Spain[/li][li]South Africa[/ul]This is a pretty good cross-section of the globe with three European countries, one from North America and one from Africa.[/li] > I know correlation does not equal causation, but how are those places doing? Have they dealt with [civil war](http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/james-dobson-gay-marriage-will-lead-to-civil-war/)? [Untold abortions](http://www.gaystarnews.com/article/christian-lawyer-gay-marriage-will-cause-900000-abortions210415/#gs.tQEwrPI)? Instigated [legal polygamy](http://theweek.com/articles/564178/how-gay-marriage-paves-way-legal-polygamy)? More [gay suicides](http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/09/13/australian-opposition-leader-insists-anti-gay-marriage-campaign-will-cause-gay-suicides/)? More [out of wedlock births](http://reverbpress.com/politics/tony-perkins-gay-marriage-out-of-wedlock-births/)? Caused [beastiality](http://www.metroweekly.com/2015/07/pat-robertson-gay-marriage-will-cause-bestiality-and-polygamy/)? Led to [mass killings and chaos](http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2016/10/ben-carson-says-sex-marriage-will-lead-mass-killings-chaos/)? Has gay marriage literally caused [the destruction](http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/roy-moore-gay-marriage-will-literally-cause-the-destruction-of-our-country/) of any of those countries? > > In short, how are those places doing? If after a decade or more of gay marriage being the law of the land, those places just have to be toast by now, right? You forgot the country that God smote from the earth and the minds of men in his righteous wrath at the abomination of two people who love each other and live together anyways, getting to pay a tax marriage penalty (God hates taxes) and getting social security survivor benefits (God also hates big government), prohibitions against these things are littered throughout the bible so they can’t say they weren’t warned. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/109 "2016-10-18T14:57:14Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Plus, the thread title implies causation: that same-sex marriage has affected the country, not simply that there has been a change following same-sex marriage. Some form of this has been pointed out twelve times in this thread. But when someone doesn’t like gay people, well, they usually stick to that opinion. ---
**Author:** ![OwnRules](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/ea666f/32.png) [@OwnRules](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OwnRules)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/110 "2016-10-18T16:06:57Z")
> [@puddleglum](#): > > [Data](http://sustaindemographicdividend.org/articles/international-family-indicators/global-childrens-trends)is a little hard to come by, but it seems every nation you listed has seen an increase in the rate of out of wedlock children. That is what most of us anti-gay marriage people thought would happen and it seems we have been proved right. Excuse me? How does anything on that link remotely have anything to do with SSM? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/111 "2016-10-18T16:07:32Z")
As an anti-abortion protester pointed out to me _in all seriousness_, homosexuality has increased since abortion was made legal. Hence, abortion makes people gay. When I asked her for the statistics on the matter, she replied “I know a woman who had two abortions, and she later became a lesbian.” OOOOOKKKKKKKAAAAYYYY! ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/112 "2016-10-18T17:24:25Z")
> [@Grey](#): > > There really are no words.:rolleyes: Sure there are … but we’re not in the Pit. ---
**Author:** ![WilyQuixote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f9ae1b/32.png) [@WilyQuixote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WilyQuixote)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2016, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/113 "2016-10-18T18:56:57Z")
As no one posting here lives in Westeros, what is the supposed harm of being born out of wedlock? ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2016, 12:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/114 "2016-10-19T00:35:12Z")
I can point to at least one concrete consequence of Canada’s legalization of SSM. My nextdoor neighbours are married, whereas they could not be if SSM had not been legalized. Seems like a win to me. They’re quite excellent nextdoor neighbours. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2016, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/115 "2016-10-21T21:03:14Z")
My take: the first countries to legalize gay marriage are countries where marriage was already on the wane, and where nobody bothered any longer to get married anyhow. That is, it’s precisely the people who regard marriage as nothing sacred, as “just a piece of paper,” who are most likely to support gay marriage. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/116 "2016-10-26T14:08:33Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Plus, the thread title implies causation: that same-sex marriage has affected the country, not simply that there has been a change following same-sex marriage. Correlation may or may not equal causation, in any given instance. The world is a pretty complex place, and it’s generally very difficult if not impossible to pin down societal changes to any specific cause. If things are at least consistent with X causing Y, then that’s about as good as you can get. If you insist on a higher standard than that about such issues, it’s hard to see it as a good faith question. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/117 "2016-10-26T14:14:04Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Correlation may or may not equal causation, in any given instance. The world is a pretty complex place, and it’s generally very difficult if not impossible to pin down societal changes to any specific cause. If things are at least consistent with X causing Y, then that’s about as good as you can get. If you insist on a higher standard than that about such issues, it’s hard to see it as a good faith question. Nonsense. Statisticians deal with this all the time; it’s actually pretty easy to determine if a single variable changing in a complex system affected the results, particularly when–as in this case–we have lots of data about trend lines and rates of change from both before and after the variable changed. I frankly couldn’t care less about the answer, since I don’t see much harm in out of wedlock births or marriage rates changing, but the notion that “well there’s no way to know, so all explanations are equally valid” is total nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/118 "2016-10-26T14:36:17Z")
What you’ve written is itself nonsense. Statisticians can adjust single variables in lab test conditions. Society is not controllable in that manner, and it can’t be done. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/119 "2016-10-26T21:25:01Z")
Well, there go the social sciences. Thanks for clearing that up for us. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309/120 "2016-10-26T21:27:37Z")
The social sciences are called “soft science” for a reason. You can’t draw as definitive conclusions as you can for other sciences, and in part this is because of the reasons I gave - the complexity of society and the difficulty in setting up precise controlled experiments. I believe this is generally accepted. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-has-same-sex-marriage-affected-the-five-countries-who-have-legalized-it-for-a-decade-or-more/768309.md?page=7)