How important do we think the early primaries are?

[Bijou_Drains]

@Bijou_Drains

they would be more important to me if they were not both 95% white. the Dems in particular should try to get more diverse states to start. I know SC is an early state but they need more diverse early states.

In case you are wondering I am an old white guy.

[UltraVires]

@dalej42

We all know Biden has got SC locked up, …

*snip. Not necessarily. Iowa and New Hampshire change attitudes. We get a chance to see how Warren (for example) pulled off a stunner and Buttigieg did better than expected and poor Joe finished a distant third (or whatever).

There is massive media coverage of the new superstar and probably even more articles about how it’s time for Joe to get in his rocking chair and yell at kids to get off his lawn.

People in SC can read that and decide to back a winner even if Joe remains their #1 choice.

[asahi]

@Urbanredneck

I think it shows a commitment that they actually want to get elected. It also forces them to be out shaking hands, kissing babies, and to meet people. Often in states they have never visited before.

When Obama was running he said he hit every fair and fish fry in Iowa to win votes.

Hillary in 2016 they barely saw her.

And Obama hitting every fair and fish fry also reinforced his youth and energy; Clinton’s comparatively lighter schedule reinforced the perception that she was too regal to waste time on Iowans, and that’s a pattern of behavior that repeated itself over and over again.

And I’m seeing Biden making similar kinds of unforced errors by turning up at events and then leaving before taking questions from the audience:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/25/joe-biden-new-hampshire-voters-104631

[asahi]

@UltraVires

*snip. Not necessarily. Iowa and New Hampshire change attitudes. We get a chance to see how Warren (for example) pulled off a stunner and Buttigieg did better than expected and poor Joe finished a distant third (or whatever).

There is massive media coverage of the new superstar and probably even more articles about how it’s time for Joe to get in his rocking chair and yell at kids to get off his lawn.

People in SC can read that and decide to back a winner even if Joe remains their #1 choice.

I don’t see Biden losing SC even if he gets embarrassed in IA and NH. I could, however, see SC as a much closer race than it looks now. But no candidate has connected with SC’s electorate the way Biden has and I don’t see any seismic shift happening there. Nevada, on the other hand…

[Bijou_Drains]

I agree Biden wins SC but it could be closer if he does badly in IA and NH. If he somehow does not win SC that could be the start of the end for him.

[dalej42]

@RTFirefly

You’re right about 1992 generally, but Iowa wasn’t contested at all that year - everybody just plain skipped it and let Harkin have an uncontested win - hence my wording. No 1992 candidates lost Iowa, so no 1992 candidates lost both Iowa and NH.

For the most part, you’re right, but there were some events there for the one other candidates. The memories of the Gary Hart implosion were still fresh, so there was always the chance of some scandal that could sink Harkin. And, IA was one of the few states Dukakis was able to flip so it was a place worthy of some Democratic attention although not all the massive love fest it had gotten accustomed to in the 1980s

[Bijou_Drains]

Gary Hart was like Clinton but Gary got caught.

[Urbanredneck]

@asahi

And Obama hitting every fair and fish fry also reinforced his youth and energy; Clinton’s comparatively lighter schedule reinforced the perception that she was too regal to waste time on Iowans, and that’s a pattern of behavior that repeated itself over and over again.

And I’m seeing Biden making similar kinds of unforced errors by turning up at events and then leaving before taking questions from the audience:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/25/joe-biden-new-hampshire-voters-104631

Sounds alot like John Kerry in 2004.

A friend went to his event here in Kansas City. He just gave a canned speech (which was the same one he gave everywhere), shook some hands and left. This person was a democrat but after this I’m not sure she even bothered to vote.

[Urbanredneck]

@Bijou_Drains

they would be more important to me if they were not both 95% white. the Dems in particular should try to get more diverse states to start. I know SC is an early state but they need more diverse early states.

They say the most “in the middle” state is actually Missouri. Most average in many areas such as racial groups, population, geographic location, big city vs small town, average income, etc…