I’d argue that it’s far more important for Obama to go than for McCain to go, because Obama has far more to learn.
Doesn’t it worry anyone even a slight bit that Obama may be CinC at a time when the military is very active and there are two wars going on, when he not only has never served, but he’s never shown the slightest bit of interest in military matters? It would be good for him to go if only for the knowledge he would gain about the sheer scale of the military deployment to Iraq and to get the perspective of the military he may be leading in six months.
What Obama should be doing is listening to current ranking generals, getting second opinions from previous generals, then picking up some serious military advisers who will help him make decisions. And non-partisan ones, at that. People who can’t be smeared as Democrat operatives. He should take them along, go through Iraq with them at his side, then issue a statement regarding the policy he’s decided to follow after hard consulting with them.
It’s really off-putting the way he talks about how he’s going to go there and he will decide the strategy. He’s not qualified to do so, and he would be better served to admit it, show some humility, and put some serious military people front and center.
He’s going to be vulnerable on Iraq. McCain is going to hammer him about his opposition to the surge. The argument is going to go like this:
“How can you trust Obama’s instincts on military matters? Since he has been in the Senate, one major military decision came up before him - the surge. Obama not only voted against it, but he declared that the surge would make the problem worse. He ignored the advice of the senior general in Iraq. In fact, the surge has worked, and Iraq is on its way to being a functional, stable country. Had Obama had the power to make the decision then, we would be embroiled in a civil war.”
Trust me, that argument is coming. Obama needs to be ready for it. That’s why he’s going to Iraq now. And that’s why he’s pivoting away from his earlier positions, and why they’ve removed any mention of a fixed timetable from his web site. He also did a very smart thing when he denounced MoveOn.org’s “General Betrayus” ad - that will give him a bit of cover. But he should go one step further and say something like this:
"I opposed the surge. And I was wrong. This is what experience is all about. I learned about hubris, about letting your politics intrude on your judgment. My opinion was not my own - it was shared by the Baker-Hamilton commission and by many ex-generals and experts in foreign policy. They were also wrong. However, unlike George Bush, I am willing to be a student of my own experiences and to strive to improve my judgment. I would hope everyone feels that way.
Having been to Iraq, and having seen the dramatic progress there, it’s clear that we can not just leave our new friends and go home. But more importantly, it is now clear the that the quickest path to withdrawal from Iraq is to get Iraq on its feet again - a job our military, led by General Petraeus, is doing brilliantly. Futhermore, casualties in Iraq are now much lower than they had been when I called for a pullout, and show every sign of continuing to decline.
Nonetheless, I am not John McCain. I do not want America tied to the middle east for 100 years. I want us to become independent. We need to be energy independent, and we need to be militarily independent. And I want Iraq to be independent. Therefore, under my Presidency our soldiers will come home. We seek no influence over Iraq, other than the influence of a good friend and ally. We will help them fight al-Qaida, and we will help protect their borders should they ask. They are our friends, and we owe them. But we will not occupy their country, and we will not keep garrisons of soldiers there one day longer than is necessary."
A message like that would also play very well to the Iraqis.
Obama is actually very canny about these things, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gave some variation on a speech like that. He’s learned that the best way to avoid a problem is to acknowledge it early, deflect it, and take it away from your opponent. He did that by admitting drug use in his book, and that’s why it hasn’t hurt him. He did it with Reverend Wright. He’s doing it with his speeches to the black community. While they are certainly sincere, Obama knows that what he’s saying resonates big time with the southern white people he needs to attract. He’s turning a weakness into a strength. Smart guy.
He needs to do the same on Iraq. If he goes into the election denying that he opposed the surge, or trying to weasel his way through by parsing the meaning of ‘is’ or something like that, it’s going to hurt him. The facts aren’t on his side.
Also, one of Obama’s liabilities is that people see him as arrogant. An expression of humility right now would probably increase his standing in the polls, and not hurt him at all. And then in the future if McCain brings up the surge, Obama can just say, “We’ve already discussed this. Let’s talk about your judgment in putting us in Iraq in the first place. Unlike you, I’m willing to admit my mistakes and learn from them.”
