On Johnny Carson. Thanks, good find.
http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5393237/rufus_hussey_on_johnny_carson_show/
Generally, this is the case. But there are exceptions.
One of my softball teammates – who is a good player, but not great – was high school teammates with Kevin Millar and said the two of them were about equal, “about the sixth or seventh best players on the team” (which was loaded, BTW, regional champs as juniors and runner-ups as seniors). Nonetheless, Millar insisted he would make it to the majors to the point his teammates truly thought he was delusional. (He did have an uncle that bounced around in MLB in the mid 70’s, which likely provided the seeds of faith.)
Millar got no offers coming out of high school, played two years at L.A. Valley Community College and then got one four-year college offer, from Lamar University. Played out his two years there and hooked up with a team in an independent minor league. Then he stuck it out in the minors for six years and made it to the Marlins in '98. Eventually wound up on the 2004 Red Sox, the team that broke The Curse. And yeah, he probably took steroids like they were Pez like all the other '04 Sox, but so what. So, there is hope for the Kevin Millars (and I presume David Ecksteins) of the world, players who refuse to give up the dream.
All that said, our Wednesday night shortstop is an absolute beast, played at UC Riverside, but never got a sniff of the pros. His skills and strengths are staggering.
This is true in auto-racing as well. I dabbled in it for a time and was surprised to find that I could hit a turn faster than a lot of people, and when you ran a series of them together, could tell you were going particularly fast. Even at 9 or 10 tenths.
But the true savants were the ones that could extract 100% out of the car, in all conditions, for EVERY turn. Anyone can be great for a loop of the track on their best day, alone, the athletes are the ones that can do it for 500 miles at a time, 4 inches from each other.
Depends on the sport really. Football involves physical freaks who are both strong and fast. Offensive lineman can often run the 40 in 5 seconds. Baseball is more a game of skill than physical gifts, so the difference in talent between say, a college team and a pro team is less huge. In fact, in spring training college teams play pro teams and sometimes even win. At the very least, no one looks ridiculous out there. Basketball is interesting because there are a lot of extremely gifted non-pros who didn’t make it because they lacked the mental aptitude(did poorly in school or just couldn’t understand complex offenses). But put some of those playground gods one on one with an NBA player and they can school them.
In sports where overall skill is very easy to quantify I find it particularly striking (and humbling).
World-class marathoners, for example, are cranking out 5-minute miles for two hours. When I set the treadmill at 12 miles per hour and try to keep up (for a minute or two), I am forced to appreciate just how slow I really am.
More like 4:43 at world record pace. 5:00 pace is almost not worth noting.
That’s astoundingly quick, what percentage of people do you think could even run one mile in 4:43? Maybe 5-7% would be my guess.
Those marathon paces are just staggering to me. I put in lots of miles, but I’ve never really tried to go all out for even a 5k. My usual pace is something in the 7s. I’ve broken 7 minutes over the course of a 4 mile run maybe 3 times in my life. I think I could get a low 6 if I went all out for a mile. Going so much lower still, and for mile after mile, is unfathomable to me.
General population, hard to say. Probably less.This page lists reported results of high school boys in California in the 1600 meter run. 1455 out of 10780 ran under 4:44.
Much much less than that.
Yeah, move the decimal to the left two or three places.
It might be more than you think. I’ve wondered what would be an average mile if everyone was trained to their potential.
I don’t know if they’re always crazy better than everyone else; a recent NFL draft pick was one of the freshmen my brother coached, and his comment was that he was “big and slow, and not that impressive” which makes me think that at least when he was younger, he wasn’t necessarily NFL draft pick awesome.
Those are all high school athletes - this is not representative of the total population.
Wasn’t supposed to be. I was just looking at how many can do that in a group of athletes who want to run and are motivated to improve.
Even then, it’s only 15%.
Hehe. My daughter runs track, and was just good enough to make it past district to Regionals. I was checking other times, and saw she would probably need to be around 5:15-5:20 (remember this is girls, boys are generally much faster), and there was no way she would make states. That’s when I came across DR’s times. DR is a running prodigy at a private academy in the southern part of our state. Her best 1600 time is 4:54 and change. Her 800 time is 2:09, blazing fast for a high school girl. She won state in both of these events this year. Her 5K is at 18:08, again, which would have won state but she had an off day and just finished third this year.
She also runs a respectable 400 M at 1:00.
The freakish thing - she’s an eighth grader, about 13 years old. She has four more years of high school. She also won the High School 800 and 1600 meters when she was in seventh grade, won the South meet and finished sixth at Nationals. For four more years, unless she burns out or fades aways, the other girls in her level will be competing for second.
I think that it’s not uncommon for top girl runners to be great at a precocious age - Mary Decker and Jordan Hasay, to name a couple, are 2 that were among national leaders when they were 14 or so.
Agreed 100%. For all the Little Leaguers in the audience, remember that absolute freak of nature who could throw 60 MPH when he was 12? If that kid reached the Majors, he’s now throwing it at 100 MPH. I was terrified of the 60. I can’t even fathom the 100.
Heh. A friend of mine was throwing 60 at TEN years old. There are actually very few people who can throw 90 or above. He topped out at 85 in high school.
What about NHL goaltenders? Generally if they can’t stop 9 out of 10 shots from the most skilled shooters in the world (guys like this) their team will lose the game. Those shots can be 90+ MPH, the world record is 114 MPH I believe. Unlike baseball, those shots are also coming straight to your head or body if you’re doing your job right.
Not to mention NHL players in general, where you have both extremes of the common sports - extreme hand-eye cordination in the ability to shoot, clear, or maintain possession of a small puck with a thin stick, and extreme physicality, where it’s legal for a 200lb 6’ skater to crush you flat into a wall going (at the extreme end) 30 MPH, and where fighting is part of the tradition. And since you’re on ice for both offense and defense, you have to be good at both, or atleast not a liability - not like in football, where you can specialize. That’s a pretty small niche of skills - toughness, durability, hand-eye-coordination, deft skating ability, mental fortitude, intelligence, speed, stamina, etc.