# How is all this Republican overreach going to play out in November 2014? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 7, 2013, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884 "2013-07-07T18:55:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/181 "2013-10-07T00:02:06Z")
Anyone want to bet? I see a few people suggesting that the Dems could win the House next year. Any of you guys interested in a wager on the proposition? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/182 "2013-10-07T00:14:15Z")
Could is a far cry from will. You’d have to be looking at a massive landslide to make that kind of prediction this far out. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/183 "2013-10-07T01:54:22Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone want to bet? > > I see a few people suggesting that the Dems could win the House next year. Any of you guys interested in a wager on the proposition? You really need to get some help for that… ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/184 "2013-10-07T02:02:45Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone want to bet? > > I see a few people suggesting that the Dems could win the House next year. Any of you guys interested in a wager on the proposition? I’m confused. It’s certainly possible, if very unlikely, that the Dems could win. It would certainly be better for the country, because the halfwits you vote for want to destroy the government. But in what way do Republicans winning the House validate anything for you? It would simply mean that gerrymandered districts and the misinformation the GOP likes to sling worked. It would have exactly zero reflection on which policies are correct or more reasonable or right for the country. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/185 "2013-10-07T02:03:15Z")
Before this whole shutdown thing, the question was coudl the Dems hang onto the Senate. Now it’s can they get the House … a REAL longshot. Things have changed drastically, but no guarantee they will stay that way with Big Liars and Big Money spewing crap as hard and fast as they can. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/186 "2013-10-07T03:26:18Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone want to bet? > > I see a few people suggesting that the Dems could win the House next year. Any of you guys interested in a wager on the proposition? I’ll wait to see what Nate Silver says. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/187 "2013-10-07T03:28:27Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > It may not be a serious or catastrophic thing, so long as everybody takes a “muddle through” sort of attitude and stays calm. The shutdown isn’t, but a default might be. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/188 "2013-10-07T03:29:46Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > I’m confused. It’s certainly possible, if very unlikely, that the Dems could win. It would certainly be better for the country, because the halfwits you vote for want to destroy the government. > > But in what way do Republicans winning the House validate anything for you? It would simply mean that gerrymandered districts and the misinformation the GOP likes to sling worked. > > It would have exactly zero reflection on which policies are correct or more reasonable or right for the country. So? The point of winning a bet is winning the bet. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/189 "2013-10-07T04:26:33Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So? The point of winning a bet is winning the bet. I assumed that there was something other than a meaningless coin flip he was betting on. That it’s just a coin flip makes it even sadder than I thought. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/190 "2013-10-07T05:03:01Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Maybe this should go in a new thread, but there’s something that doesn’t add up about gerrymandering, to me. Suppose a state has 10 congressional districts (each with a roughly equal population); five of them go 60-40 Democrat, and five go 60-40 Republican. Each party gets the same number of votes statewide, and each gets five districts. Now, the Republicans could redraw the districts in order to win more than half the districts, but it seems to me they could only do that by accepting a smaller margin of victory. They might win seven districts 55-45, and lose three by huge margins (80-20, or whatever); still an equal number of voters for each party. > > So why do I keep hearing about how gerrymandering guarantees so many safe Republican districts? Seems to me that the only way to get more districts is to make each one a little less safe. Consider a state that votes 70% yellow and there is one city that accounts for 30% of the population that votes orange. You chop that city into tiny little pieces and all of a sudden all your districts are pretty safely yellow. > [@Bricker](#): > > Anyone want to bet? > > I see a few people suggesting that the Dems could win the House next year. Any of you guys interested in a wager on the proposition? I’d need odds to bet that the Dems will win 17 seats (although if the election were being held today, the odds wouldn’t have to be very large) but I’d be willing to bet that the dems pick up seats, even during an off year election like 2014. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/191 "2013-10-07T05:59:32Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Consider a state that votes 70% yellow and there is one city that accounts for 30% of the population that votes orange. You chop that city into tiny little pieces and all of a sudden all your districts are pretty safely yellow. Yes, but those districts would be even safer yellow if each one didn’t have a piece of the city in it. Maybe the Powers That Be figure it’s worth it. Or demographics and election forecasting are sufficiently precise that you can do it with no real risk. Suppose you have a 60-40 district next to a 50-50 one. That twenty point margin is kinda going to waste; redraw the boundaries to shift some of your voters from the safe district into the other one. Maybe you only keep the first district by 55-45, but maybe a 10-point margin is considered a lock in this day and age. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/192 "2013-10-07T12:27:59Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > You really need to get some help for that… When his famous logic fails… ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/193 "2013-10-07T12:38:37Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > You really need to get some help for that… No, I don’t. The moment I start talking about betting, the conversation loses some of the overtones of certainty and becomes (or returns to) reasonable statements about actual probabilities. That’s almost as desirable an outcome as pocketing money. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/194 "2013-10-07T12:46:59Z")
> [@Bridget\_Burke](#): > > When his famous logic fails… My famous logic is in fine shape. The offer of a wager is used when members of the audience are impervious to logic. Actually, that’s not true. An audience truly impervious to logic would eagerly accept. An audience willing to spout nonsense because they realize there are no true consequences to being wrong, however, is perfectly situated for this approach. Once there’s some kind of real-world consequence in play, outlandish predictions are often moderated with more careful disclaimers. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/195 "2013-10-07T12:58:42Z")
So Bricker - what can of odds are you laying? Generally when somebody says something “could, but probably won’t” happen, they’re willing to bet with odds. Myself, I’d put the odds of Dems winning the House at about 5-to-1 against. ETA: I think it was more like 10-to-1 against before the shutdown. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/196 "2013-10-07T14:02:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > My famous logic is in fine shape. The offer of a wager is used when members of the audience are impervious to logic. > > Actually, that’s not true. > > An audience truly impervious to logic would eagerly accept. > > An audience willing to spout nonsense because they realize there are no true consequences to being wrong, however, is perfectly situated for this approach. Once there’s some kind of real-world consequence in play, outlandish predictions are often moderated with more careful disclaimers. Are we starting this again? I thought this had been hashed out already in another thread. This is stupid. Willingness to wager or not has as much to do with one’s views on betting as it does one’s confidence in one’s position. I don’t happen to think the Democrats will take the House (although they may gain a seat or two) but even if I thought they were a shoo-in I wouldn’t bet simply because I don’t bet (the odd flutter on a lottery ticket or charity raffle notwithstanding). Your gambling proclivities add nothing to your argument. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/197 "2013-10-07T14:59:13Z")
The impact on the GOP depends on how much longer it takes for them to grow the fuck up, and how much more damage they cause in the meantime. The last time they pulled this shit, it took a month and cost them the House. Even with more gerrymandering this time, I’d still go with that as a most probable case. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/198 "2013-10-07T15:49:17Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > No, I don’t. The moment I start talking about betting, the conversation loses some of the overtones of certainty and becomes (or returns to) reasonable statements about actual probabilities. > > That’s almost as desirable an outcome as pocketing money. Is there a single post in this thread that had overtones of certainty about the Democrats retaking the house? Or will you concede that your betting offer was unnecessary in this thread? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/199 "2013-10-07T15:55:05Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > No, I don’t. The moment I start talking about betting, the conversation loses some of the overtones of certainty and becomes (or returns to) reasonable statements about actual probabilities. > > That’s almost as desirable an outcome as pocketing money. :mad: Bite your typing-fingers! ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2013, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/200 "2013-10-07T19:02:29Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Are we starting this again? No, we are not. **Bricker** : I will put up with the endless wagering if people choose to play the game, but I will not allow it to hijack threads. That means you can’t taunt people. For instance: > [@Bricker](#): > > An audience willing to spout nonsense because they realize there are no true consequences to being wrong, however, is perfectly situated for this approach. Once there’s some kind of real-world consequence in play, outlandish predictions are often moderated with more careful disclaimers. That also goes for other posters griping about a wager or attacking **Bricker** because he’s raised the possibility. > [@jayjay](#): > > You really need to get some help for that… Don’t insult other posters in this forum. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884.md?page=11)