# How is all this Republican overreach going to play out in November 2014? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 7, 2013, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884 "2013-07-07T18:55:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2013, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/221 "2013-10-10T01:46:55Z")
[More from Sam Wang](http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/09/partisan-gerrymanderings-hidden-burden/#more-9739): > [@](#): > > The white symbols show districts in states that I demonstrated in February to be gerrymandered to allow Republicans to eke out many small victories: FL, MI, OH, PA, VA, and WI. The swing in those 12 districts is 14.1+/-8.5 % (mean+/-SD), as opposed to 7.8+/-4.8% for the other 12 districts. (My analysis spreadsheet is here.) > > It is a common fallacy is to believe that seats gained by partisan gerrymandering are safe seats. In fact, the converse is the case. Gerrymandering achieves a net gain of seats by packing the opposition party into as few districts as possible. … Representatives who benefited from the great partisan gerrymander of 2010 were given enough of an advantage to get into office narrowly. In a district designed to give Republicans a narrow advantage, Republican loyalists are likely to be spread thinly, with the balance of the needed votes being drawn from independents. Some of these independents might be more prone to anger about the current situation. These polls suggest that Republicans in those states might be particularly ripe targets for pressure. > > The 12 districts plotted in white are FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, MI-01, MI-07, MI-11, OH-06, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, and WI-07. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/222 "2013-10-11T06:20:41Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > [http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/10/07/cnn-shutdown-poll-plenty-of-blame-to-go-around/) > > 63% are angry at the Republicans for the way they have handled the shutdown. > 57% are angry at the way the Democrats are dealing with the shutdown. > 53% say they are also angry at President Obama > > Would you say that the difference between 63% and 57% is significant enough that Republicans should be scared enough to fold? The polling doesn’t tell us everything, but it is clear that Republicans are doing better this time than they did in the 90s. although that’s a low bar to clear. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/223 "2013-10-11T06:51:17Z")
I’m surprised you’re finding a silver lining in this, considering how strongly you seemed to oppose what they’re doing/threatening in another thread (albeit on the debt limit, not on the shutdown). Have you changed your mind? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/224 "2013-10-11T06:55:07Z")
Not at all. The fact that I think it’s not a legitimate tactic is totally seperate from whether or not it will work. In fact, me thinking it’s a bad idea should be enough to convince you that maybe they’ll win this fight.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 9:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/225 "2013-10-11T09:11:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The polling doesn’t tell us everything, but it is clear that Republicans are doing better this time than they did in the 90s. although that’s a low bar to clear. According to [this poll](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nbc-wsj-gop-approval-rating-at-all-time-low), the Republicans are doing worse than they did in the 90s. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/226 "2013-10-11T09:48:23Z")
That’s approval rating. For whatever reason, probably Obama’s relative unpopularity compared to Bill Clinton, the Republicans aren’t getting hurt as badly. Of course, they only lost 7 seats in the 1996 House election, so maybe the cost of the shutdown back then was overrated too. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/227 "2013-10-11T10:11:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s approval rating. For whatever reason, probably Obama’s relative unpopularity compared to Bill Clinton, the Republicans aren’t getting hurt as badly. By the measure of approval rating, and _some_ (but not all) of the blame-for-the-shutdown polls, the Republicans are, in fact, doing worse than they did in the 90s shutdown. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/228 "2013-10-11T10:29:52Z")
Okay, so I was right. It was a bad idea.🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/229 "2013-10-11T10:45:58Z")
> **[Meet the Press: Inside Takes on the Latest Stories with Kristen Welker](https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press?lite)** > > Follow Kristen Welker as she uncovers breaking news events with the experts on NBCNews.com. Find coverage on the latest in politics, news, business, and more. > [@](#): > > The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party’s popularity declining to its lowest level. > [@](#): > > For one thing, the health-care law has become more popular since the shutdown began. Thirty-eight percent see the Affordable Care Act (or “Obamacare”) as a good idea, versus 43 percent who see it as a bad idea – up from 31 percent good idea, 44 percent bad idea last month. > > In addition, 50 percent say they oppose totally eliminating funding for the law, even if it that means a partial shutdown of the government. That’s up from 46 percent who said they opposed that move in a Sept. 2013 CNBC poll. So, not only are the favorability ratings of the Republicans cratering (lowest in poll history), not only do people blame them, not only would people prefer a Democratically controlled House next year, and not only are Obama’s numbers improving… But Obamacare is more popular now than before this stunt, and 50% of the country thinks that rather than cut funding for it, we should endure the Republicans tantrum/shutdown. This is just an incredibly stupid move from an incredibly stupid party, and it has hurt them severely. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/230 "2013-10-11T12:59:37Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > But Obamacare is more popular now than before this stunt I would attribute that more to the exchanges now being open, and people actually “finding out what’s in it” despite the stream of lies from its obstructionists, as Pelosi predicted would happen. Remember implementation started the same day. I’m even more impressed by the overall approval rating for Congress (not with a mention of party) being down to 5%. Yes, a single digit. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/231 "2013-10-11T13:05:13Z")
Not so sure that the computer glitches would not have had more negative impact if not for the House antics burying that as a lede. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/232 "2013-10-11T13:35:39Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I would attribute that more to the exchanges now being open, and people actually “finding out what’s in it” despite the stream of lies from its obstructionists, as Pelosi predicted would happen. Remember implementation started the same day. I don’t disagree. However, I do think that it helps psychologically to have people feel even better about Obamacare when their greater appreciation for the actual contents is accompanied by an attack of it that is associated with something they really hate (the shutdown). The Republicans really could not have handled all this any more poorly than they have. Remember, it was just a few years ago that people were still calling them, with a straight face, the party of big ideas. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/233 "2013-10-11T13:47:44Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > Remember, it was just a few years ago that people were still calling them, with a straight face, the party of big ideas. Well, _some_ people. I, personally, would have seriously injured myself attempting that kind of stunt. Don’t try this at home, kids! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/234 "2013-10-11T16:26:57Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > I don’t disagree. However, I do think that it helps psychologically to have people feel even better about Obamacare when their greater appreciation for the actual contents is accompanied by an attack of it that is associated with something they really hate (the shutdown). > > The Republicans really could not have handled all this any more poorly than they have. Remember, it was just a few years ago that people were still calling them, with a straight face, the party of big ideas. The President can still save them by caving. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/235 "2013-10-11T16:30:05Z")
True. Of course he won’t cave. But he will offer them some minimal face-saving as their way out. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/236 "2013-10-11T16:31:25Z")
I’m not so sure of that. I guess it depends on what we define as caving. If he gives them another trillion in spending cuts for basically nothing but an agreement to not screw around for a year, that’s caving and rewarding bad behavior to boot. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/237 "2013-10-11T16:47:00Z")
He won’t if for no other reason because he can’t. He will keep healthcare off the table. Period. So Medicare is out of the equation. Military cuts? Like they’d even ask for it. Science budget? Too committed to investing in the future. It leaves Social Security. And let’s face it, raising the age a year or so and some modest means testing just does not make a big dollar impact on the budget. Chump change but he’ll consent to some movement there which of course hurts the GOP in the polls more than the Democrats even as they spin it that they forced him to do something. And he’ll give them Keystone. Honestly he might even want to do that but didn’t previously want to piss off elements of his own core. The less the world relies on Arab and Russian oil and natural gas the better so far as our international interests go. (Environmental arguments being duly noted and acknowledged.) And he’ll do that only after they have approved both a CR and the debt ceiling on a short term basis. And after some bargaining for show. That is face saving for enough for Boehner albeit barely yet will in no way be able to be spun as caving. It will hit the balance of firm but not rigid. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/238 "2013-10-11T16:50:48Z")
But if Republicans get anything out of this, then they’ll keep on doing it. And I’m saying that as someone who would really like them to stop. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/239 "2013-10-11T16:51:20Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It leaves Social Security. And let’s face it, raising the age a year or so and some modest means testing just does not make a big dollar impact on the budget. Chump change but he’ll consent to some movement there which of course hurts the GOP in the polls more than the Democrats even as they spin it that they forced him to do something. If he gets bolder, and addresses the seriously-regressive nature of the SS tax, he’d probably get a lot more public support. Raising or eliminating the cap and progressivizing the rates is not only fiscally sound in both the short and long terms, it’s basic fairness. > [@](#): > > And he’ll give them Keystone. Yes, but hopefully with some very serious environmental safeguards. > [@](#): > > And he’ll do that only after they have approved both a CR and the debt ceiling on a short term basis. And after some bargaining for show. That is face saving for enough for Boehner albeit barely yet will in no way be able to be spun as caving. It will hit the balance of firm but not rigid. I like the idea of giving him and his caucus “I shut down the government and all I got was this lousy T-shirt” garments, so they can say they “won” something. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2013, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884/240 "2013-10-11T16:58:53Z")
Boehner’s the only one who can end this- even if Obama were to cave, Boehner would still have to call a vote. It’s all on Boehner- both the shutdown and the default. He could call a vote now and end it, but he won’t. It’s not really about Obama at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-all-this-republican-overreach-going-to-play-out-in-november-2014/662884.md?page=13)