Aren’t we nuanced today! That does nothing to rescue the ignorance
of your remarks, but I will do my reply over:
Obama is not going to be enough over the polling margin of error
to be able to write off Florida’s 29 electoral votes, which may be critical to him.
And even if Obama could write off Florida, advocating normalization
would lead to a complete massacre of Democrats running office in Florida,
including US Senate and Congressional seats, each of them critical to
a President’s ability to govern.
And the issue could to be critical in any other race outside Florida where
the polls are inside the margin of error.
And the issue is unlikely to be a net vote-getter anywhere.
And any Democrat who supports normalization well become a national
poster boy for Republican flogging everywhere.
Therefore no Democrat in his right mind could advocate it.
I’m guessing that we’d have a LOT more than China to worry about if we did something so monumentally stupid. Want WWIII?
There won’t be any talk of changes on the embargo until Castro kicks it. And that fucker seems to be hanging in there like Keith Richards, even as sick as he is.
[QUOTE=colonial]
Aren’t we nuanced today!
[/QUOTE]
I really am at a loss. Either you are being deliberately obtuse or you simply don’t get it. I honestly can’t tell which it is.
By all accounts I’ve read, he doesn’t need to win Florida in order to win the election. Romney HAS to win in Florida (as well as just about every other battleground state) to have a chance. It’s moot anyway, since as I said I was illustrating a point, not making a serious suggestion. Since it’s obvious that you didn’t get the point (unless you are being deliberately obtuse for reasons of your own), let me go ahead and expand on what the point was…Cuba and the current status quo is not an important issue that any political party is going to expend any political capital on because, cynically it’s not worth the cost. As an example, let’s say the situation was about Civil Rights. I think most folks would agree that losing a key state by taking a principal based stance would be worth the cost on this issue. Cuba? Not so much (being deliberately understated). Slavery? Worth losing a few key states over a principal based stance. Cuba? Not so much. Etc.
Do you get what I was saying NOW? Or do you need more pedantic explanations?
Why yes…this would be in the category of ‘no shit, Sherlock’. Sort of the point I was trying to make. And, the actual point being that it wouldn’t be worth the political cost, since NO ONE EXCEPT A FEW EX-PAT CUBANS ACTUALLY CARES ABOUT THE ISSUE. I put that in call caps in the hopes it would sink in. Did it work? I could do colors or large fonts if that would be helpful, especially since folks on this board LOVE colors and large fonts.
You don’t say? Really??
DINGDINGDINGDING! We have a winnah! You can have this nice ceramic dog, the board game version of SDMB, Let’s Be Obvious, plus a nice potted plant and some other marvelous parting gifts!
Actually, I have to say, that yeah…I’m in a much better mood now. Thanks!
No, I don’t want WWIII but I am wondering whom, if anyone, would intervene on Cuba’s behalf if we did so, like we would do if China did the same to Taiwan. The USSR is gone, and I have no idea what kind of relationship Cuba has with the rest of the world’s communist (or formely communist) nations that would actually have the ability to do anything.
Are you or are you not saying Obama is sure not need to win Florida?
I take it from this:
that you are saying he is sure not to need to win it, and I contest that, and what
follows from it. Clear enough?
This is the gold standard of polling analysts; the day before the election in 2008 he
called it 353-185 Obama, missing only Indiana’s 11 electoral votes to Obama and
Nebraska’s 1 (out of 5) to Obama:
and 20 as follows are right next to the margin of error at 5%:
20 Michigan
4 New Hampshire
And if you study the following map by The Votemaster from this date in 2008 you will
see there were numerous states where a candidate’s popular vote % changed 5% or more
between early September and Election Day:
Obama “could” write off Florida if and only if he could be sure that he would not need
its electoral votes. But as I read The Votemaster that is impossible.
Essential to your point is the serious suggestion that Obama can write off Florida,
and still win the election. That suggestion is unsupportable.
The point you make above contains nothing of interest or insight.
Your original point, which you repeat in your last post, hinged on the premise that
Obama can write off Florida, and still win the election. That premise is unsupportable.
The assertion that only ex-pat Cubans care about the issue is ridiculous no matter
how you format it. Any presidential candidate advocating normalization now might
lose a critical number of votes outside Florida from among the millions of staunch
anti-Communists left over from the Cold War who could otherwise vote either way.
I guess that means you agree with me.
Ditto.
YVW.
PS: No doubt you caught that ludicrous floor fight at the Democratic convention
where a clearly audible number of delegates actually booed inclusion of reference
to Jerusalem and God in the platform. How anyone could be so stupid is beyond me.
I only hope it does not cost Obama the election. Sure as hell will cost him too much
to be able to feel safe about winning without Florida, whose millions of voters either
staunchly Christian or staunchly Jew he somehow needs to win over more than ever.
I think this stuff is nonsense about the ex-pats controlling the whole of US policy in re: Cuber.
First of all, the ex-pats proper are all dying off. Their descendants are just like the Amerikanskis-don’t give a crap about what grandpa went through. They just want hookers and blow (or white picket fences-whatever).
I think we should normalize relations with them, and I know the whole of US policy can override even that voting bloc. Witness the Gun Ban (or whatever it was called, in the early 90s). Gillions of people were sore vexed by it, and even the Republican’s darling at the time, Bob Dole, voted for it, and got away with it, so offending some 90 year old refugees isn’t going to change the votes down there.
There has to be some other explanation, about which I don’t care to inspect. I’ve heard some plausible reasons, but, at this time of night, I have forgotten them, and I don’t know that I even cared when I heard them.
I don’t recall anyone claiming that they control the whole of U.S. policy toward Cuba.
There is one aspect of Cuban-U.S. relations over which they control the tipping point: the embargo.
There are a lot of cranky, ancient U.S. citizens who are still mad that the Soviets were able to get a colony just off our shore, (and Fidel Castro, and, to a lesser extent, his brother, have made a career out of saying nasty things that will irritate them), but left to the whole country to decide, we’d have argued it out and resolved this in the late 1970s or, more likely, just after the Soviet Union crashed. With the ex-pat influence in Florida, they provide a tipping point that keeps the discussion off the table.
Here’s the thing: Most people just don’t care that much about this issue. The few people who really do care are those old ex-pats and those families. Sure, they’re dying off. But for now they’re still around.
A small, but very vocal, minority will always win over the majority on any issue if the majority isn’t willing to stand up to the minority.
Which is to say roughly the same, because a potential president has to pander to both Jewish interests and Cuban interests to win Florida. At least so long as the opponent is doing so.
Somewhat off-topic, but yes they will. North Korea allows tourism in the form of tightly-guarded guided tours, which are open to US citizens. The State Department apparently thinks it’s OK for us to go on a propaganda tour of North Korea but not soak up some rays on the beach in Havana.
For my part, I wouldn’t mind if all the Caribbean islands were states of the Union – we could have the states of Cuba, Haiti, San Domingo, Jamaica (including the Cayman Islands – no more offshore tax-haven there! :D), Bahamas (including the Turks and Caicos), Puerto Rico, and then all the rest, all the Lesser Antilles (including the USVI), could be one big State of Antillia. Seven states, 14 Senators.
Of course, most of those places are not white-majority . . . and most of them are very, very poor . . . so, their own local nationalisms aside, there would be, at the mainland end, some obvious political problems with admitting them . . .
It isn’t, then, that the majority is unwilling to stand up to the minority; it’s that the majority doesn’t give a hang, so, the minority wins by default.
Agreed?
Didn’t we have a wink smilie a few weeks ago???
