# How is Islamic State managing to survive under constant US airfire? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 18, 2015, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322 "2015-05-18T19:48:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/21 "2015-05-19T17:29:42Z")
> [@Mr.Duality](#): > > You may want to reconsider this statement. You can’t even manage to say what you mean, and what you meant to say is indefensible. **Coremelt** listed necessary conditions for what you said previously to be possible. (Underline added) What the heck are you trying to say? You are saying he didn’t say what he meant to say, and then you state that YOUR interpretation of what YOU think he meant to say is indefensible. Don’t you mean that your interpretation is indefensible? ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/22 "2015-05-19T17:32:49Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Why should the locals have to detect anything? Doesn’t the U.S have some sort of intelligence gathering apparatus? You know - reconnaissance units, surveillance drones, wiretaps, double agents, stuff like that. How can ISIS organize a parade without the U.S. knowing about it in advance? I suspect that ISIS hasn’t “friended” the CIA on facebook. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/23 "2015-05-19T17:35:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Well, ISIS just conducted a [“massive” military parade in Ramadi](http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/05/isis-holds-massive-military-parade-in-west-anbar-celebrating-victory-in-ramadi-wheres-the-coalition/). > > Why did the US NOT bomb it to smithereens? I suspect that the CIC did not greenlight such an operation. It might make ISIS angry, or hurt their feelings? ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/24 "2015-05-19T17:39:05Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Look at the post to which I was responding. That post claimed that as soon as planes arrive, the military parade would scatter. Now - which version above is applicable to such a situation? How many hours does the military parade last? Seems to me that if flight-time between between Adana, Turkey and Ramadi, Iraq is 60 minutes, but the parade only lasts 45 minutes, and it takes 14 minutes for word of the parade to get from Ramadi to Incirlik, and 45 minutes to fuel and arm the aircraft, then what’s the point of trying to hit a line of pickup trucks if you don’t know where they’ll be when the planes get there? You’ll have more luck hitting things that move less frequently - ammo dumps, command centers, etc. > [@](#): > > Why should the locals have to detect anything? Doesn’t the U.S have some sort of intelligence gathering apparatus? You know - reconnaissance units, surveillance drones, wiretaps, double agents, stuff like that. How can ISIS organize a parade without the U.S. knowing about it in advance? The invitations to the parade should arrive by snail mail in Washington in 5-6 business days. If Daesh would just use email instead, the process could be simplified. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/25 "2015-05-19T17:43:00Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > From what i have seen, so far, U.S. and allied airpower has been used on a limited basis, targeting specific hard points or Command-and-Control Centers. There has been no major air assault in the manner of WWII or even the attacks on North Vietnam. > > I have heard no explanation for those tactics. There may be a reluctance to broaden the scope of the war; there may be pressure from allies to not get “carried away”; there may be simply a lack of sufficient airpower in the region after we withdrew a couple of years ago. Given the dicey political situation, the U.S. may be acting in a support role, rather than as the leadership for the anti-ISIS raids. > > While it is true that it is harder to hide in a desert than in a jungle, the attack on Ramadi may have been staged over months, with small units–too small to justify the risk to attacking aircraft–moving forward over many weeks until they were assembled for the grand assault. This. PLus - The attack on Ramadi began last October. (please excuse the wiki reference) _The Battle of Ramadi, also called the Fall of Ramadi, in 2014 and 2015 was part of an ISIL offensive to capture all of the Anbar Province. Ramadi was one of the Iraqi government’s last strongholds in Anbar, after its success in a previous campaign. The battle began in October 2014 and drew to a close as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) insurgents seized hold of government buildings in 14 May 2015_. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/26 "2015-05-19T17:45:52Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > I mean, this isn’t Vietnam, covered with all-concealing jungles. This is Iraq and Syria, mile upon mile of open desert. > > “Advanced in armored vehicles from Ramadi”? WTF? Why didn’t US air power take them all out long before they reached their destination? These guys have to be sitting ducks in that terrain. What am I missing here? The U.S. military has not received orders to “take them all out long before they reached their destination”. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/27 "2015-05-19T17:52:31Z")
> [@Mr.Duality](#): > > You may want to reconsider this statement. You can’t even manage to say what you mean, and what you meant to say is indefensible. **Coremelt** listed necessary conditions for what you said previously to be possible. I disagree with every word that **Terr** has ever said that I was aware of. But in this case, I should note, you guys seem to be misunderstanding him. He’s not talking about the time from identification of the parade’s location to the time the bombs are dropped. He’s talking about the time from when _the planes are spotted by IS people_ to the time bombs are dropped. ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/28 "2015-05-19T17:53:32Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > He’s not talking about the time from identification of the parade’s location to the time the bombs are dropped. He’s talking about the time from when _the planes are spotted by IS people_ to the time bombs are dropped. Even if that is what he’s talking about (and I agree with you, it is) - the planes still have to get to Ramadi before the parade is over. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/29 "2015-05-19T17:55:49Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > He’s talking about the time from when _the planes are spotted by IS people_ to the time bombs are dropped. Yes but as I tried to say and others have already said, that’s irrelevant UNLESS there are already armed planes in the air with authorisation to fire and that is not usually the case. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/30 "2015-05-19T18:04:53Z")
> [@wevets](#): > > Even if that is what he’s talking about (and I agree with you, it is) - the planes still have to get to Ramadi before the parade is over. Or they could use drones. Or cruise missiles. ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/31 "2015-05-19T18:07:45Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Or they could use drones. Or cruise missiles. Which also have to get to Ramadi before the parade is over… ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/32 "2015-05-19T18:13:49Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Or they could use drones. Or cruise missiles. Tomahawk cruise missiles cost $1.6 million each. Do you really think it’s an effective use of resources to spend one of those on a bunch of guys in Toyota pickups with AK-47’s? Who are probably just rank and file grunts? So lets try drones: “A Reaper drone costs $28 million; one Hellfire missile (Lockheed Martin/Raytheon) costs about $70,000; one Paveway bomb (Lockheed Martin/Raytheon) about $20,000. The total cost of one weapons load for a Reaper – four Hellfire/ two Paveway – is at least $320,000, a third of a million dollars.” That might give you some idea why they don’t order drone / cruise missile strikes on every guy in a pickup waving an ISIS flag. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/33 "2015-05-19T18:25:59Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > …That might give you some idea why they don’t order drone / cruise missile strikes on every guy in a pickup waving an ISIS flag. (post shortened) I believe “order” is the key word. The U.S. military hasn’t received “orders” to destroy ISIS’s ability to wage war. A target here, and a target there, isn’t going to cripple ISIS’s ability to capture territory, or towns. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/34 "2015-05-19T18:28:31Z")
> [@wevets](#): > > Which also have to get to Ramadi before the parade is over… Ramadi was under attack since last October. The fall of Ramadi didn’t come as a complete surprise. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/35 "2015-05-19T18:33:02Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Tomahawk cruise missiles cost $1.6 million each. Do you really think it’s an effective use of resources to spend one of those on a bunch of guys in Toyota pickups with AK-47’s? Who are probably just rank and file grunts? > > So lets try drones: > “A Reaper drone costs $28 million; one Hellfire missile (Lockheed Martin/Raytheon) costs about $70,000; one Paveway bomb (Lockheed Martin/Raytheon) about $20,000. The total cost of one weapons load for a Reaper – four Hellfire/ two Paveway – is at least $320,000, a third of a million dollars.” As opposed to the cost of U.S. fighter aircraft and bombers? Or refueling operations, or aircraft carrier battle groups? It still comes down to orders. The U.S. military hasn’t been received orders to destroy ISIS ability to wage war. ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/36 "2015-05-19T18:42:31Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Ramadi was under attack since last October. The fall of Ramadi didn’t come as a complete surprise. But the point was why can something like the parade happen? Why can ISIS operate armored vehicles? While in action movies, the fighter jets show up immediately or whenever is the best dramatic moment, in real life, time takes place between when someone sees an armored vehicle, reports it to another person, the decision is made to strike, weapons are prepped, aircraft are fueled, aircraft (manned and unmanned) fly to the target. People expect the war in Iraq to play out like in an action movie, but it doesn’t, because it’s real life. No one wants to watch an action movie that follows the F-16 for 60 minutes as it flies to the battlefield. (They [did make a movie that boring once](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Starfighters) - it didn’t fly with the audience.) ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/37 "2015-05-19T19:02:06Z")
> [@wevets](#): > > Why can ISIS operate armored vehicles? The only images I can find of ISIS operated “armoured vehicles” are images of captured HummVee’s being paraded in Mosul BEFORE the US started air strikes. Technically, a pickup truck with metal plates welded on is an “armoured vehicle”. If anyone has any video or photos showing what we would normally think of as armoured vehicles (tracked troop carriers or tanks) being operated by ISIS since air strikes started then I’d like to see them. I’m skeptical that a) they ever knew how to operate such vehicles b) that if they did they have escaped being destroyed by air strikes. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/38 "2015-05-19T19:23:59Z")
> [@wevets](#): > > But the point was why can something like the parade happen? Why can ISIS operate armored vehicles? Because the U.S. military hasn’t received orders to destroy every armed group of ISIS fighters. The military was not prepared to destroy an ISIS parade of arms at a moments notice. Could the military have been prepared to destroy massed ISIS fighters, and arms, within minutes of receiving confirmation? Yes, it could have, but they still require orders. Both for the preparation, and for the go-ahead. AFAIK, the MQ-1B Predator, and the MQ-9 Reaper, can remain over target for some 15 to 20 hours? It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that ISIS would have a parade after they captured Ramadi. Armed drone(s) could have been holding on station within 5 or 10 minutes of Ramadi. ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/39 "2015-05-19T19:36:38Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > Because the U.S. military hasn’t received orders to destroy every armed group of ISIS fighters. Probably not - even in the ‘grand’ old days of total wars, the U.S. military didn’t receive orders like: November, 1917: Destroy all groups of armed Imperial Germans January, 1942: Destroy all groups of armed Wehrmacht Even so, we live in an age of more limited wars, where orders are much more tailored to produce fewer casualties, especially among civilians and non-combatants and friendly combatants. The drone wars in Yemen and Pakistan are rather unpopular in Yemen and Pakistan, and jeopardize the very existence of the governments that cooperate with the U.S. in anti-terrorism activities. It’s easy to see why they wouldn’t repeat the drone war in Iraq - look [how successful the drone war was in Yemen!](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/18292-houthis-mobilise-military-forces-in-sanaa) That’s why you need to cooperate with locals in conducting drone strikes, rather than just have a pilot in Nevada [look “through a soda straw”](http://www.daily-times.com/four_corners-news/ci_24600432/retired-military-drone-operator-shares-experience-remote-piloting) deciding if that pickup trucks has refugees or soldiers in it. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2015, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/40 "2015-05-19T20:03:16Z")
OK, I’m getting it. Obama is a pussy who in his heart thinks ISIS deserves to win and America deserves to lose, and so he’s either deliberately or subconsciously sandbagging our heroes in uniform, who could have this mopped up in time to be home for Christmas if only their hands weren’t tied behind their backs by the waverer-in-chief. Does that about sum it up? Explain to me again why our heroes in uniform didn’t have Iraq sewn up in a few months back when they had a patriotic commander in chief who believed in America and America’s values. Cause it sure would have been nice if they could have taken care of it back when they had a chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322.md?page=3)