# How is Islamic State managing to survive under constant US airfire? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 18, 2015, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322 "2015-05-18T19:48:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Willcross](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b2d939/32.png) [@Willcross](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Willcross)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2015, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/61 "2015-05-21T18:37:31Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > First off, it’s not “my” image. 2nd, you would be looking for a parade, or massed celebration. 3rd, the U.S. military (that would include the Air Force, Navy, Marines, and Army) has not been issued orders to destroy massed groups of ISIS fighters within cities. I would like to publicly apologize for using the phrase “your image”. That was wildly inappropriate of me and I thank you for bringing it to my attention. In the future, I will use the phrase “hypothetical image” so it doesn’t confuse or upset you > [@doorhinge](#): > > Why Ramadi? You start with the assumption that ISIS would have a parade/celebration in Ramadi after they took the city. Internet chatter might suggest that there would be a parade/celebration in Ramadi. The targeted area would then be Ramadi. > > “IF” the U.S. military had received such orders. First of all, “I” don’t start with any assumptions. I’m not in charge of the military and it’s not my decision to make. But hypothetically, lets say that Obama also conducts wars based on assumptions and gut feelings. He starts with the assumption that ISIS will have a parade in Ramadi, even though there is no pattern of them holding large parades right after taking a city. They have held parades before, but they have been seemingly random and hard to predict. Just off a hunch, he personally orders a squadron of planes to orbit the city to wait for said parade. A plane crashes due to mechanical error, the pilot is drug through the streets by ISIS and it goes on youtube. Would you be on the straightdope the next day saying that Obama made the right call? Or would you criticize him for risking our pilots lives based of a hunch that ISIS might have a parade? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2015, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/62 "2015-05-21T18:50:29Z")
> [@doorhinge](#): > > So, still speaking hypothetically, “IF” the U.S. military had received orders to engage large groups of armed ISIS fighters inside Ramadi, it can be assumed they would have relied on one, or more, forms of reconnaissance before engaging the enemy. It’s not hypothetical. They did have orders to strike IS fighters in the vicinity of Ramadi. [Cite.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/19/world/middleeast/isis-fighters-seized-advantage-in-iraq-attack-by-striking-during-sandstorm.html?_r=0) Sandstorms prevented them from getting on station until the forces were too intermingled for effective engagement. If it had been US forces (or embedded US advisers) clearing fires at that point would have been easier. The ground commander could have accepted risk. Extremely constrained sorties, both strike and reconnaissance, got committed to assist the defense of Ramadi. They ended up being ineffective. Plans and fans…it happens :smack: > [@](#): > > Why Ramadi? You start with the assumption that ISIS would have a parade/celebration in Ramadi after they took the city. Internet chatter might suggest that there would be a parade/celebration in Ramadi. The targeted area would then be Ramadi. The fighting in Ramadi wasn’t a one day event. The stalemate had been going on for months with flare ups of intensified fighting. Things had been building to the culmination for days at the end with IS gradually gaining an advantage. Why assume Sunday was the day Ramadi fell instead of Saturday, Monday, or any other day of the recent flare up? Why guess that the victory would happen on a timeline to allow that column to form up at that time instead of hours earlier or later? The strike package could have been up too early or too late based on how long the ISF actually held out. To plan to hit IS after they win the fight means holding out combat power every day that could be used for something different… like trying to **prevent** ISIS from capturing the last strongpoints. Even then you might mistime it. The plan as executed had a chance of accomplishing the mission. Holding combat power out to strike after had a chance to kill an operationally insignificant amount of infantry and some pickup trucks if, and only if, **the mission had already failed.** Silly planners trying to win. What were they thinking? ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2015, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/63 "2015-05-21T18:58:25Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Can you cite other examples of ISIS holding “parades” after taking other cities? ISIS likes to celebrate lots of stuff, just like any other victor does. Their choice of what, and how, to celebrate is a bit bizarre. After Fallujah, ISIS has become more bold, and celebratory. \*Three months after the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) decided to avoid public appearances and maintain a low profile in Fallujah, the group put on a military parade in the center of the city to showcase its strength. The move signaled the start of an armed conflict to control the city. On March 20, ISIS fighters staged a parade in downtown Fallujah. The parade was similar to previous ones, with convoys of cars carrying the group’s flags. This time, however, ISIS used Humvees, the type owned by Iraqi government forces and the police. ISIS had seized most of the vehicles after battles with the Iraqi army.\* > **[ISIS shifts tactics in Fallujah](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2014/03/isis-parade-fallujah-iraq-strategy-internal-conflict.html)** > > Local fighters in Fallujah opting for reconciliation with the Iraqi government may have forced the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) to change strategy. _ISIS Holds Public Execution Celebration Complete With Music and Small Children in Attendance (Video)_ > **[ISIS Holds Public Execution Celebration Complete With Music and Small...](https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/06/isis-holds-public-execution-celebration-complete-with-music-and-small-children-in-attendance-video/)** > >           ISIS terrorists held a public execution celebration in Aleppo, Syria recently. And ISIS did celebrate the capture of Ramani. \*Isis: Children wave guns in celebration of Islamic State taking Ramadi Islamic State (Isis) posted online a video of what was said to be Mosul residents celebrating the group taking the Iraqi city of Ramadi. The video, posted online on Monday 18 May and said to be filmed the day before, showed large crowds of people waving Islamic State flags and cheering. Children can be seen in the video waving flags and celebrating with guns alongside large groups of young men. The taking of Ramadi was the biggest victory for IS in Iraq since security forces and Shi’ite paramilitaries began pushing the militants back last year, aided by coalition air strikes.\* > **[Isis: Children wave guns in celebration of Islamic State taking Ramadi](https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-children-wave-guns-celebration-islamic-state-taking-ramadi-1501885)** > > Taking of Ramadi marked significant victory for IS in Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![doorhinge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a5b964/32.png) [@doorhinge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doorhinge)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2015, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/64 "2015-05-21T19:07:40Z")
> [@Willcross](#): > > I would like to publicly apologize for using the phrase “your image”. That was wildly inappropriate of me and I thank you for bringing it to my attention. > > First of all, “I” don’t start with any assumptions. I’m not in charge of the military and it’s not my decision to make. (post shortened) That would be “Second of all”. Your apology would have been first, but who’s counting. 🙂 Any discussion of an U.S. military attack on an ISIS parade held after the fall of Ramadi would be hypothetical since it didn’t happen. Assumptions are being made. Would “this” happen before “that” happened? If “that” didn’t happen, what would have happened? ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2015, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322/65 "2015-05-29T16:53:17Z")
> [@Willcross](#): > > So the satellites that can see the parade, aren’t always on station. The satellites that are always on station wouldn’t be able to see it. And actually, as it turns out, Daesh used the cover of a sandstorm ([link](http://video.foxnews.com/v/4244522711001/report-isis-took-advantage-of-sandstorm-to-attack-ramadi/?#sp=show-clips)) to take Ramadi, so neither drones nor satellites would have observed the approaching force. Presumably the parade happened after the sandstorm, but it makes sense that you wouldn’t send a reconnaissance aircraft into a sandstorm to wait to see what happened when the sandstorm cleared up. That’s OK though, because if man-made HAARP can control sandstorms, well, then… 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-islamic-state-managing-to-survive-under-constant-us-airfire/720322.md?page=3)