# How is it statistically more likely to die in an apocalyptic asteroid strike than win the lottery? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [February 8, 2015, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160 "2015-02-08T23:27:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Shakester](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shakester/32/437_2.png) [@Shakester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shakester)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/41 "2015-02-11T17:11:34Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Using your logic it’s more likely that I win the lottery than a woman is ever elected president of the US. …except that US presidential elections are a heck of a lot more common than asteroid strikes. Given that the US elects a new president every 4 or 8 years, and that there have been no asteroid strikes in the entire history of the human species, and there is zero reason to expect one in the near future, your analogy fails to impress me. ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/42 "2015-02-11T18:28:22Z")
> [@Shakester](#): > > …except that US presidential elections are a heck of a lot more common than asteroid strikes. That’s right, but **Snarky\_Kong** wasn’t referring to the event of a presidential election happening; he referred to the event of a woman being elected in one of them, which hasn’t happened in recorded history. The analogy stands. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/43 "2015-02-11T18:32:29Z")
> [@Shakester](#): > > …except that US presidential elections are a heck of a lot more common than asteroid strikes. Given that the US elects a new president every 4 or 8 years, and that there have been no asteroid strikes in the entire history of the human species, and there is zero reason to expect one in the near future, your analogy fails to impress me. There have been plenty of asteroid strikes, just none that have been documented to directly kill a human being. The Earth gets hit by asteroids all day every day. As for the sun never going nova, you neglected to consider Alien Space Bats. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/44 "2015-02-11T18:35:35Z")
I think this is only meaningful if compared in the narrow timeframe of someone’s lifespan. In 80 years, is someone more likely to win the lottery, or be killed by an asteroid? I think the math is overwhelmingly on the side of the former and not the latter. ---
**Author:** ![erocked](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f08c70/32.png) [@erocked](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erocked)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/45 "2015-02-11T19:59:03Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > But presumably there would also be 100 times as many people playing the lottery, and so 100 times as many lottery winners over time. Your saying that population has any bearing on the probability of an asteroid strike. We are talking about the probability of a specific individual, such as myself winning the lottery. Not the probability of any person amongst the population winning. It is 1 man guessing the 5 numbers and megaball number that will get sucked up the tube vs an apocalyptic asteroid. Which is most probable? ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/46 "2015-02-11T20:05:15Z")
> [@erocked](#): > > Your saying that population has any bearing on the probability of an asteroid strike. We are talking about the probability of a specific individual, such as myself winning the lottery. Not the probability of any person amongst the population winning. Look at it this way: The probability that an asteroid hits the earth tomorrow (LOW) times the probability that it will kill you personally (100% or close to). The probability that someone will win the lottery tomorrow (100%, or close to) times the probability that it will be you personally (LOW). So ignore those two “close to 100%” parts, and you’re (correctly) comparing the two LOW values to get the answer. The asteroid numbers just turn out to be not as low. ---
**Author:** ![erocked](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f08c70/32.png) [@erocked](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erocked)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2015, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/47 "2015-02-11T20:42:23Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > Look at it this way: > > The probability that an asteroid hits the earth tomorrow (LOW) times the probability that it will kill you personally (100% or close to). > > The probability that someone will win the lottery tomorrow (100%, or close to) times the probability that it will be you personally (LOW). > > So ignore those two “close to 100%” parts, and you’re (correctly) comparing the two LOW values to get the answer. The asteroid numbers just turn out to be not as low. Thats still comparing population and that has no place in deciding if I am more probable to win the mega millions or if mankind is more probable of being destroyed by the asteroid. Using dunkleosteus sourcery (post #30) > [@](#): > > Grabbing impact frequency data from wikipedia, throwing it into wolframalpha and extrapolating for the odds of winning the mega millions (given a draw twice a week that you always enter) you have a 1 / 2482515 chance of winning the jackpot And his post #33 > [@](#): > > the fraction I gave was the probability of winning on a given year Your odds of winning the lottery do indeed increase if you play consistently. But by the same token, i dont think your odds of being killed by an asteroid would increase by consistently being alive everyday. Especially over the 80 years of your average lifetime. Also, “The probability that an asteroid hits the earth tomorrow (LOW) times the probability that it will kill you personally (100% or close to).” Doesnt matter because its assumed that the asteroid kills everyone (apocalyptic). I think this is the proper way to compare them: > [@](#): > > what if there were a single immortal human on earth doing nothing but playing mega millions twice a week. He gets 104 games a year with the probability being 1 in 285m of winning. Over the course of a 100 million year cycle he would’ve won approximately 36 times for every 1 apocalyptic strike. That should show that he is 36 times more likely to win the lottery than to die by asteroid strike. With his life shortened to only 80 years his probability drops to 1 in 2482515. At the same time the probability that the asteroid will strike in the same 80 year time frame is 1 in 89,370,540. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/48 "2015-02-12T00:10:31Z")
The OP is ambiguous about whether he’s talking about a population or a single person. And also whether he’s talking over the length of a single lifetime or the entire duration of humanity. The OP seems to be referring to something he read someplace. We really don’t know what basis those folks used to derive their conclusion. Until we can at least define what the question really is there are lots of possible answers, many of which are mutually contradictory. And most are as correct as any other. My bottom line: Hey **erocked** , please decide what question you want to ask. Then tell us what it is. Then we can get to a single good answer. ---
**Author:** ![erocked](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f08c70/32.png) [@erocked](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erocked)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/49 "2015-02-12T00:54:48Z")
> [@](#): > > My bottom line: Hey erocked, please decide what question you want to ask. Then tell us what it is. Then we can get to a single good answer. OK. As the thread has evolved the original question has changed somewhat i suppose. It’s definitely gotten more precise, as in what an average lifespan is and how many people exist… so heres the summary: [This link](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/30/15-things-more-likely-to-happen-than-winning-mega-millions.html) shows your odds for various things compared to winning the lottery. They show the odds of winning the megamillions is about 1 in 176 million. They show the odds of dying in an asteroid apocalypse at 1 in 12,500. Various other sites have various other odds for the apocalypse. Notably [Just how many humans have space rocks killed, anyway? - SciGuy](http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2013/02/just-how-many-humans-have-space-rocks-killed-anyway/) which claims a 1 in 700,000 chance. My question was how is it statistically possible for this, which dracoi showed the math used to come to this figure. Although i agree he came up with the likely formula they used i still question the parameters that were used to make that statistic. In other words i think it’s a bogus statistic. The question then sort of evolved into, "What would be the proper way to figure out if an individual has a greater chance of dying in an asteroid apocalypse or winning the lottery? " I have never asked if a population of people has a greater chance of winning the lottery or dying in an asteroid apocalypse as i could unequivocally prove that we indeed have had lots of lottery winners and zero apocalypses in just the past few months. Likewise, since you asked, I’m talking about a single lifetime. And since i haven’t specifically stated a number of years that constitutes a lifetime, we seem to have come to 80 years as the average lifetime, so let’s go with that. i don’t know what else you might consider ambiguous. This was just something i read last Friday and couldn’t stop thinking about. ---
**Author:** ![Shakester](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shakester/32/437_2.png) [@Shakester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shakester)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/50 "2015-02-12T06:49:14Z")
> [@Schnitte](#): > > That’s right, but **Snarky\_Kong** wasn’t referring to the event of a presidential election happening; he referred to the event of a woman being elected in one of them, which hasn’t happened in recorded history. The analogy stands. No it doesn’t, because there is every reason to expect a female US president within my lifespan. I fully expect to live to see a female US president. I’d be very surprised if there isn’t one within the next couple of decades. I see no reason at all to expect a large asteroid to hit the Earth in the same timeframe. Could happen, sure, but it most certainly isn’t anywhere near as likely as a female US president. My statement wasn’t that something never happening before in the history of the human species means that it will never happen in the future. It was that something that last happened 65 million years ago is highly unlikely to reoccur _in our lifetimes_. Give or take a few million years, sure, entirely possible. Give or take a few decades? _Very_ unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/51 "2015-02-12T12:52:31Z")
> [@erocked](#): > > OK. As the thread has evolved the original question has changed somewhat i suppose. It’s definitely gotten more precise, as in what an average lifespan is and how many people exist… so heres the summary: > > [This link](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/30/15-things-more-likely-to-happen-than-winning-mega-millions.html) shows your odds for various things compared to winning the lottery. … > > i don’t know what else you might consider ambiguous. This was just something i read last Friday and couldn’t stop thinking about. The short version is you read a clickbait article full of dubious guesswork and bogus comparisons. It was all meaningless drivel. e.g. They state “the odds of winning the Mega Millions is 1 in 176 million.” The unstated rest of the sentence is “for one person buying one chance one time.” Then they state “The odds of being killed by a vending machine is 1 in 112 million.” The unstated rest of \*that \*sentence is “per year, for all Americans (including infants to the elderly and including the incarcerated) assuming we all have the same behaviors \*vis-a-vis \*tipping vending machines to obtain free snacks.” So you see the part of each computation unmentioned is far, far more important than the part mentioned. And even between those two examples of odds they are using incompatible definitions of an individuals’ exposure to the event. So in no sense can you compare 112 million to 176 million and draw a conclusion. That’s like comparing apples to music. There is IMO no meaningful way to compute the odds of one person dying one time in one meteor strike. Which are the odds you’d need to compute to be directly comparable to the Mega Millions odds as stated. And even then you’d have the issue that the Mega Millions odds fundamentally include the idea that the player opted in to taking the gamble by buying a ticket. i.e. If you don’t play then your odds of winning are zero, not 1 in 176 million. Nobody has the ability to opt in or out of being meteor-struck. Given some heroic assumptions we \*can \*compute a single person’s lifetime exposure to lottery winning and to meteor impacts. But the odds will simply be a reflection of the guesses / assumptions we choose to make. ---
**Author:** ![Schnitte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/schnitte/32/9033_2.png) [@Schnitte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Schnitte)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2015, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/52 "2015-02-12T21:27:44Z")
> [@Shakester](#): > > No it doesn’t, because there is every reason to expect a female US president within my lifespan. I fully expect to live to see a female US president. Well, that is circular reasoning. You’re essentially saying that it’s more likely to see a female US president because there is every reason to expect that. The question is, then, what it is that makes you expect a female US president but not an asteroid impact. If it’s simply that the last asteroid impact was millions of years ago, then you’d have to address the counterargument that at least there were asteroid strikes in the past, but so far no female presidents. Which is not to say that I disagree with you that the asteroid strike is less likely. It’s just I have a feeling that there sisn’t something logically compelling about the line of argument why this is true. ---
**Author:** ![Haldurson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/51bf81/32.png) [@Haldurson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Haldurson)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/53 "2015-02-13T17:30:36Z")
> [@Shakester](#): > > I have personally known two people who won big money on lotteries, one of whom won multiple millions (and didn’t piss it all away, contrary to the cliché). > > Since **no people ever** have been killed by asteroids, and I have strong evidence that ordinary people do indeed win lotteries on a regular basis, I’m going to say you can keep your bogus statistical arguments and I’ll keep on buying the occasional lottery ticket. > **[Qingyang event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1490_Ch%27ing-yang_event)** > > The Qingyang event was a presumed meteor shower or air burst that took place near Qingyang in March or April 1490. The area was at the time part of Shaanxi, but is now in Gansu province. A 1994 study in the journal Meteoritics tentatively explained this event as a meteor air burst. > Some historical Chinese accounts of the meteor shower recorded many deaths, but the official Ming dynasty history records the event without mentioning casualties. The casualties are therefore doubted by many researche... ---
**Author:** ![Haldurson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/51bf81/32.png) [@Haldurson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Haldurson)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/54 "2015-02-13T17:43:09Z")
Also… I agree that the chances of being killed (not hit, mind you, but killed) by a meteor is pretty slim, a lot of people did get injured by one back in 2013 in Russia, including one old lady who had a broken back as a result. What that incident taught us is that you don’t actually have to get hit by a meteor for it to kill you (or at least, severely injure you). As the population of our world increases, the odds of SOMEONE being killed by a meteor also increases. So long as the birth rate exceeds the death rate, the odds of it happening to someone will continue to increase. Of course that does not affect YOUR odds of death by meteor. As far as the Lottery itself is concerned, if you play the lottery expecting it to make you rich, you are just throwing your money away. If you play it because you think its fun, then go ahead, keep playing it. I personally don’t find it fun, but to each his own. Oh, and btw, a lot of states that have lotteries sell their tickets by claiming that the money goes to benefit education. Just a bit of research will tell you that in most cases, this is a lie. So play it if you think it’s fun. Just don’t believe that you are doing anything for the children by doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Corner\_Case](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/corner_case/32/234_2.png) [@Corner\_Case](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corner_Case)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/55 "2015-02-13T18:29:47Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > I imagine that was listed on the insurance claim as “damage by falling rock”. No, I’m sure it was marked as “hail damage”. Wouldn’t we all feel silly if an asteroid stuck and killed everyone while this was being debated. I for one would feel silly. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2015, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/56 "2015-02-14T00:54:36Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > Although there’s no recorded cases of people being killed by being struck by meteors, there were two cases of people being struck and injured by them. There were cases where animals have been killed by them. There was a case where a car was struck by one. _National Geographic_ claims only one confirmed injury: [Ann Hodges in Alabama in 1954](http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/02/130220-russia-meteorite-ann-hodges-science-space-hit/). ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2015, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/57 "2015-02-14T06:18:52Z")
More recently there has been one more injury: > **[14-year-old hit by 30,000 mph space meteorite](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/5511619/14-year-old-hit-by-30000-mph-space-meteorite.html)** > > A schoolboy has survived a direct hit by a meteorite after it fell to earth at 30,000mph. ---
**Author:** ![erocked](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f08c70/32.png) [@erocked](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erocked)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2015, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/58 "2015-02-14T17:20:15Z")
> [@Corner\_Case](#): > > Wouldn’t we all feel silly if an asteroid stuck and killed everyone while this was being debated. I for one would feel silly. Lol, there already were several winners of the powerball during the course of this debate, something like $500m split amongst them. Even had someone from my state get $1m for getting 5 numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2015, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/59 "2015-02-15T02:06:52Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#): > > More recently there has been one more injury: > > [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/5511619/14-year-old-hit-by-30000-mph-space-meteorite.html](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/5511619/14-year-old-hit-by-30000-mph-space-meteorite.html) Thanks! I suppose we’ll never know if anyone got caught in that big 1908 Tunguska Event. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2015, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160/60 "2015-02-15T15:28:53Z")
> [@erocked](#): > > Your saying that population has any bearing on the probability of an asteroid strike. We are talking about the probability of a specific individual, such as myself winning the lottery. Not the probability of any person amongst the population winning. > > It is 1 man guessing the 5 numbers and megaball number that will get sucked up the tube vs an apocalyptic asteroid. Which is most probable? I’ve followed the thread, and this is my problem as well. As an individual, the chances of me being killed by an asteroid strike are not related to the Earth’s population. Either a large asteroid hits during my time here, or it doesn’t. Whether there are 5, 10, 15, or 50 billion people on Earth doesn’t matter. But these statistics use the world’s population in order to determine my individual chances of death by asteroid. I believe that is incorrect. IOW, if there were only 1,000 people in the world, the odds of picking the correct lottery number remain the same, but using the statistic, the odds of dying in an asteroid apocalypse become much higher. But my personal chance of being wiped out by an asteroid remains the same. From my back of the envelope calculation, my chances of being killed by an asteroid extinction event are 80/65,000,000 (feel free to substitute numbers, but it is the average lifespan divided by the average time period between killer asteroids), and has no correlation with world population. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-it-statistically-more-likely-to-die-in-an-apocalyptic-asteroid-strike-than-win-the-lottery/712160.md?page=4)