# How is the Zimbabwe election going to shake out -- end for Mugabe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 2, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694 "2008-04-02T17:56:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/1 "2008-04-02T17:56:28Z")
[The Zimbabwean Election Commission still has not announced the official results.](http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200804/FOR20080401b.html) > [@](#): > > Even those results that the ZEC did announce raised eyebrows – and suspicion: A first batch of six constituency seats went three each to Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party and the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC); a second batch hours later took the tally to 15 seats each; it then moved up to 19 seats each; and later announcements kept the contest virtually neck-and-neck – 53 seats to ZANU-PF, 51 to the MDC, and five to a breakaway MDC faction. A total of 210 House of Assembly seats are up for grabs. > > The MDC, claiming to base its information on results posted outside polling stations, insists that it has won a large parliamentary majority, and that its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has an unassailable lead over Mugabe in the presidential race. > > The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, a non-governmental coalition, said in a statement that, according to its sampling, Tsvangirai had received around 49 percent of the vote. A candidate needs more than 50 percent of the total vote to avoid a second-round runoff later this month. No protests or riots on the ground – yet. If the results go against [Mugabe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Mugabe) – will he go quietly? If he doesn’t, can he be ousted without civil war? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2008, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/2 "2008-04-02T17:59:23Z")
The election commission is going to announce that Mugabe won, people who complain about it are going to wind up in jail, and the rest of the world won’t do very much. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2008, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/3 "2008-04-02T23:13:14Z")
I just realized Mugabe is 84 years old. How much more does he want? ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2008, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/4 "2008-04-02T23:32:56Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] I just realized Mugabe is 84 years old. How much more does he want? [/QUOTE] I did not realize it, either, until yesteray. I assume that at the very least, he doesn’t want to end up in a jail or lynched… And I’m not convinced it’s going to end up as smoothly as \*\* Captain Amazing \*\* suggested… ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/5 "2008-04-03T09:46:23Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [The Zimbabwean Election Commission still has not announced the official results.](http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200804/FOR20080401b.html) No protests or riots on the ground – yet. If the results go against [Mugabe](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Mugabe) – will he go quietly? If he doesn’t, can he be ousted without civil war? [/QUOTE] I think things are shaping up such that his own party won’t stand behind him should he try and snatch things. As of now, his party has officially lost the parliamentary election, but it’s looking like Presidential might go to runoff. Holding out some hope for a change, but it’s Africa, so… ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2008, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/6 "2008-04-03T16:24:33Z")
[Seems Mugabe is pinning his hopes on a runoff.](http://www.myfoxtoledo.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=6208547&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.4.1) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2008, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/7 "2008-04-04T17:41:02Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] No protests or riots on the ground – yet. [/QUOTE] [However . . .](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,346360,00.html) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2008, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/8 "2008-04-07T13:31:17Z")
[Zimbabwe’s High Court is expected to announce a ruling today](http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-04-06-voa19.cfm) on a petition to release the official results. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/9 "2008-04-08T13:53:05Z")
[Obama has made a statement, anti-Mugabe.](http://www.allamericanpatriots.com/48745501_barack-obama-statement-zimbabwes-election) (Dunno about Clinton or McCain.) [Five election officials have been arrested for allegedly undercounting votes for Mugabe.](http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0F345FD8-E566-4150-BE0D-67EAD7CA1F4B.htm) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2008, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/10 "2008-04-08T19:57:05Z")
Having picked Mugabe as one of my 2008 Deathpool choices, I have to admit I’m biased and hope it doesn’t end well for him. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2008, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/11 "2008-04-09T13:19:34Z")
BTW, what exactly does this opposition party, the [Movement for Democratic Change,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_Democratic_Change) stand for, other than “We’re not Mugabe!”? Does anybody know? The Wikipedia article gives me no insight into their politics or platform. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2008, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/12 "2008-04-09T14:50:08Z")
Well, “We’re not Mugabe” is a large part of what they do stand for, but here’s their platform from 2005: [http://www.mdc.co.zw/documents-manifesto.asp](http://www.mdc.co.zw/documents-manifesto.asp) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2008, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/13 "2008-04-10T20:45:21Z")
Southern African leaders are having a [summit in Zambia](http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/04/10/zimbabwe.election/index.html) this weekend to try to resolve the crisis; both Mugabe and Tsvangirai are “due” to attend. Tsvangirai’s party has ruled out participatig in a runoff vote. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2008, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/14 "2008-04-16T14:36:20Z")
[The opposition tried to force the issue by calling a general strike, but it flopped.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7347705.stm) ---
**Author:** ![Szlater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Szlater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Szlater)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/15 "2008-04-18T11:00:03Z")
There’s an absolutely huge shipment of arms from China currently sitting in a dock in Durban in South Africa waiting to be offloaded. The manifest includes 3.5m rounds of ammunition for AK47 assault rifles and for small arms, 1,500 40mm rockets, 2,500 mortar shells of 60mm and 81mm calibre, as well as 93 cases of mortar tubes. To their credit the South African stevedore and trucker unions are refusing to offload or haul anything from the ship. Mugabe ordered the arms after the election, so it’s blatantly obvious he doesn’t plan on going quietly. So shortly, either he’s going to be standing with his back to a wall or more likely his opponents are. [Story](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/18/china.armstrade) ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/16 "2008-04-18T11:51:22Z")
Can’t help wondering why he even bothered with the charade of an election. Did he perhaps hope that it would just be an accidental, but genuine landslide? ---
**Author:** ![Mellivora\_capensis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mellivora\_capensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mellivora_capensis)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2008, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/17 "2008-04-18T13:49:09Z")
I think Zuma is a charlatan, a man whose sexual escapades indicate a severe lack of critical foresight, a financially inept politician perfectly positioned to implement a powerful yet ultimately destructive system of patronage politics, and is thus unfit to lead this country. But I can now understand why the ANC voted him in as leader. “Anyone but Mbeki” was reputedly the Polokwane mantra. Whether Mbeki said it or not, “there is no crisis in Zimbabwe” is clearly what he believes. Both Mugabe and Mbeki must fuck off already. They are both past their sell-by dates. ---
**Author:** ![Szlater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Szlater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Szlater)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2008, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/18 "2008-04-19T14:39:07Z")
Well, the ship is moving to Angola to unload. > [@The Chinese Foreign Ministry](#): > > China and Zimbabwe have normal trade relations, the Chinese government takes a prudent and responsible position on arms deals and it does not involve itself in the internal affairs of other countries ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2008, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/19 "2008-04-19T16:31:41Z")
Now they’re doing [recounts](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080419/ap_on_re_af/zimbabwe_elections). Still refusing to reveal the presidential election results, though. I can’t see any way for this to turn out well, unless Mugabe was counting on that shipment of Chinese arms to stage his crackdown. ---
**Author:** ![Szlater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/90ced4/32.png) [@Szlater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Szlater)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2008, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/20 "2008-04-19T16:47:04Z")
[QUOTE=Mosier] unless Mugabe was counting on that shipment of Chinese arms to stage his crackdown. [/QUOTE] He’ll probably distribute those arms to the “war veterans” as soon as they’re in-country, then it won’t matter what the results were. Those “war veterans” will soon be rampaging through Zimbabwe eliminating Mugabe’s political rivals in an apocalyptic orgy of machetes, mortars and machineguns. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694.md?page=2)