# How is the Zimbabwe election going to shake out -- end for Mugabe? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 2, 2008, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694 "2008-04-02T17:56:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Mellivora\_capensis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mellivora\_capensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mellivora_capensis)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/41 "2008-04-23T07:52:54Z")
Update: according to _The Star_ (sorry no cite, hard copy only), the ship has turned around and is heading back to Bob’s _chinas_. It has been spotted off the Cape coast. Interestingly, there were apparantly two court orders issued in Durban, one blocking overland transport, and the other was an order given to a German bank to seize the cargo as payment for an outstanding Zimbabwean debt. No wonder the ship’s captain pulled out in a hurry. ---
**Author:** ![Mellivora\_capensis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mellivora\_capensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mellivora_capensis)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/42 "2008-04-23T13:45:11Z")
:smack: Apparently one shouldn’t post between meetings. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/43 "2008-04-23T15:07:59Z")
So, Mugabe has not these weapons. Does that mean he can’t hold on? ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/44 "2008-04-23T15:30:58Z")
If this shipment of weapons was indeed intended to be used by Mugabe to retain power, we’re witnessing one of those remarkable hinge moments in history, well, maybe, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Mellivora\_capensis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mellivora\_capensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mellivora_capensis)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/45 "2008-04-23T16:49:05Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] So, Mugabe has not these weapons. Does that mean he can’t hold on? [/QUOTE] I think he can still hold on. Given his tactics in the past, I think the “recount” is a smokescreen for emergency ballot skullduggery. I predict either a win on recount by Mugabe, or a presidential run-off. If it’s a run-off, Mugabe will intensify his campaign, using his existing powerbase. I think Mugabe took this election lightly, and was caught off guard by the results. I hope I’m wrong, but the fact that there has been this delay suggests to me that the results were far in favour of Tsvangirai. By withholding the results, a Mugabe win will be forever tainted. Not that this will bother Mugabe, as tainted Zimbabwe elections are what we have come to expect. ---
**Author:** ![DangleYourModifier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@DangleYourModifier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DangleYourModifier)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/46 "2008-04-24T07:38:18Z")
I agree completely with what **Mellivora capensis** said. The fact that they are recounting the votes proves, to me at least, that Mugabe is not going quietly. I just wanted to add that I heard on the radio that the Zimbabwe Herald ran an article that mentioned power sharing. This newspaper is obviously pro ZANU-PF and would definitely not mention anything like this without approval. To me this means that Mugabe does not want to relinquish power but knows that if he blatantly steals the election there will be a huge outcry internationally and in Africa. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2008, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/47 "2008-04-30T16:00:59Z")
Human Rights Watch is charging the Mugabe government with [unleashing a new round of violence.](http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353382,00.html) Meanwhile, [the UN Security Council is stalemated.](http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j_lzG6nkN7N5OknfWEHsxpeEUduA) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2008, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/48 "2008-05-02T16:18:57Z")
[The electoral commission has announced a runoff election, date to be announced.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/02/AR2008050200321.html?hpid=topnews) > [@](#): > > Tsvangirai, leader of the largest faction of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, won 47.9 percent of the vote, and Mugabe took 43.2 percent, Chief Elections Officer Lovemore Sekeramayi said. > > “No candidate has received a majority of votes counted,” the commission said in a statement. “A second election will be held at a date to be announced.” Under Zimbabwean law, a run-off should be held within 21 days of the announcement of the results. > > Opposition officials immediately denounced the electoral commission’s tally, charging that Tsvangirai had been robbed of victory. The 56-year-old opposition leader has been traveling outside Zimbabwe in recent weeks, saying he fears for his life if he returns to his country. He has maintained that he won the presidency outright on March 29 with 50.3 percent of the vote. Hmmm . . . Then how’s he supposed to campaign in the runoff? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2008, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/49 "2008-05-11T21:10:07Z")
[Tsvangirai will contest the runoff, but demands it be held right away.](http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azKuw29coyrQ&refer=home) Also demands international observers and an end to government violence against the MDC. ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2008, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/50 "2008-05-12T07:21:39Z")
It sure does look like Mugabe is doing exactly what the opposition is accusing him of, which is stalling runoff elections long enough to intimidate anyone who might vote for the other guy. I sure hope Zimbabwe votes him out with an undeniable landslide. Then at least he’ll have to stop pretending he’s not a thug. I doubt the voting will be open or fair, though, and Mugabe controls the election comittee, so that’s unlikely to say the least. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/51 "2008-06-23T14:37:12Z")
[Tsvangirai has dropped out of the runoff, citing violence against his supporters.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/22/AR2008062200429.html) And now he has [sought refuge in the Dutch embassy in Harare.](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/23/AR2008062300387.html?hpid=topnews) ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2008, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/52 "2008-06-23T14:44:45Z")
Mugabe will win due to his superior health policy: Vote Mugabe and live Vote Tsvangirai and die. ---
**Author:** ![bannerrefugee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/c68b51/32.png) [@bannerrefugee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bannerrefugee)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2008, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/53 "2008-06-23T16:19:31Z")
I read an article in the NYtimes yesterday about the brutality which has been aimed at his supporters/political party. If the article was accurate withdrawal from the election was the only choice. I think Mugabe will be there until he dies. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2008, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/54 "2008-06-23T16:49:40Z")
According to [this,](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4092858.ece) the situation has actually slipped out of Mugabe’s hands. He is now merely the front man for a kleptocratic military elite, and the experience of Myanmar/Burma shows how tenacious **they** can be. ---
**Author:** ![grimpixie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecb155/32.png) [@grimpixie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grimpixie)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2008, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/55 "2008-06-24T06:50:43Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] According to [this,](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article4092858.ece) the situation has actually slipped out of Mugabe’s hands. He is now merely the front man for a kleptocratic military elite, and the experience of Myanmar/Burma shows how tenacious **they** can be. [/QUOTE] This is what I had always feared - as long as it was just Mugabe, there was always the chance that he would be removed/step down, and the country had a chance of finding its way again. Now that there appear to be faceless generals in charge, I doubt there is any chance of a peaceful solution… ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Colophon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f05b48/32.png) [@Colophon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colophon)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2008, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/56 "2008-06-24T20:57:59Z")
[QUOTE=don’t ask] Mugabe will win due to his superior health policy: Vote Mugabe and live Vote Tsvangirai and die. [/QUOTE] Now that’s a great soundbite. 😃 (but also ☹ ) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2008, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/57 "2008-06-25T14:57:55Z")
[Now Tsvangirai is calling for a negotiated settlement](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/25/AR2008062500142.html?hpid=topnews) – but if the Army is dead set against change, what’s he got to negotiate with? ---
**Author:** ![Mellivora\_capensis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mellivora\_capensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mellivora_capensis)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2008, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/58 "2008-06-27T14:39:22Z")
Jesus fucking Christ, we have been supplying arms to Zimbabwe for years? > **[SA arms flow to Zimbabwe](https://mg.co.za/article/2008-06-27-sa-arms-flow-to-zimbabwe/)** > > South Africa has been supplying Zimbabwe with helicopters, revolvers and cartridges -- despite the mounting human rights atrocities in that country. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2008, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/59 "2008-06-27T15:08:10Z")
[QUOTE=Mellivora capensis] Jesus fucking Christ, we have been supplying arms to Zimbabwe for years? > **[SA arms flow to Zimbabwe](https://mg.co.za/article/2008-06-27-sa-arms-flow-to-zimbabwe/)** > > South Africa has been supplying Zimbabwe with helicopters, revolvers and cartridges -- despite the mounting human rights atrocities in that country. [/QUOTE] Yeah, since the end of apartheid, South Africa has been Mugabe’s strongest supporter. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2008, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694/60 "2008-06-27T15:11:32Z")
But of course - Armscor/Denel had to keep making payroll after '94, you know… Ostensiably, this was to arm the Zim army for its SADC and AU “peacekeeping” duties I’m sure. Like you know, keeping “peace” in the DRC diamond fields. Piece of the pie more like… Man, I used to think Mbeki was an OK president, you know? Not like a lot of other possibilities. Now…it’s just fucked up. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-the-zimbabwe-election-going-to-shake-out-end-for-mugabe/443694.md?page=4)