# How is trump still a viable candidate for president? Really, how? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 12, 2023, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949 "2023-05-12T14:28:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/324 "2023-08-01T19:06:02Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > This article discusses this, and it seems corybantic. This is why I think the Republicans can’t win. Even if they win the presidential election somehow, they are going to be dealing with an epic problem. They’ll be holding a tiger’s tail. Trump seems to have a lock on the primaries, and would be difficult to win in the general (I don’t trust a poll today to predict what things will be like in November 2024). And if he wins in the general election, it would be a Pyrrhic victory. I’d say the best chance for Republicans is for Trump to be unable to run anymore (suffer a major health crisis, get spooked and flee the country, whatever) and maybe they have nobody to replace him this cycle, but just be prepared for 4 years from now. Find his successor. It’s a really bad time to be a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/325 "2023-08-01T19:09:44Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Even if they win the presidential election somehow, they are going to be dealing with an epic problem. They’ll be holding a tiger’s tail. They are not worried. The Leopard will never eat _their_ face, right? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/326 "2023-08-01T20:06:33Z")
> [@Mallard](#): > > Trump is viable because all that has to happen is RFKjr lose democrat nomination & run as an independent. One way ticket for a Trump White House, imho. Can I have some of whatever you’re smokin’? I’ll pay a good price. As soon as RFK tries to take over one of the other 3rd parties, he’ll be labeled as the RW crank he is. Any votes he’ll steal will be RW votes, not D votes. And nobody is creating a 3rd party from scratch starting now, not even trump. All the legal obstacles to additional parties pretty well demand that the effort to get the party onto the various states’ ballots begin at least 4 years before the election. trump might have the oomph to invade and co-opt the e.g. Libertarians or Greens who’re already set up to be on all 50 ballots. RFK? Haha, it is to laugh. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/327 "2023-08-01T21:01:10Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > Exactly, you are making my point, thank you. The founding fathers knew darn well how smart (or dumb) the people were. Especially the ones they enslaved and made sure couldn’t read. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/328 "2023-08-01T21:10:43Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > Especially the ones they enslaved and made sure couldn’t read. Remember we’re talking about **people**. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2023, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/329 "2023-08-01T21:12:33Z")
Well, 3/5ths of a people. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/330 "2023-08-02T02:36:39Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > (I don’t trust a poll today to predict what things will be like in November 2024). Agreed, but not the way you mean. Trump is still the most famous person in the world. His negatives thus are extremely well known. But there probably are some low-information voters who haven’t heard much about Biden being sympathetic to trans kids, or having attacked the popular Supreme Court AA decision, or his son’s legal problems. Plus, recent surveys are mostly registered voters polls, and when pollsters switch to likely voter models closer to the election, that usually gives the GOP another point or two. Then there’s the third party risk. Third parties did unusually poorly in 2020. There probably will be some regression to the mean there, with the Green Party nominating a higher profile candidate (Cornel West). I’m not saying Biden’s a goner, but the case for him being an underdog is strong. > [@Atamasama](#): > > And if he wins in the general election, it would be a Pyrrhic victory. I wonder if we are now in a sour-voter era where presidencies will be one-term for a while. In that sense you could be correct. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/331 "2023-08-02T04:20:29Z")
My mother is the only Trump supporter I’m in regular contact with. She’s quite upset about this latest indictment believing Trump has been charged with “thought” crimes. I keep hearing “What about Hillary?” from her every time I ask her about the crimes Trump has been indicted for. He’s a viable candidate because there’s a solid core of his supporters who won’t waver despite evidence of wrong doing. Then there are the non-believers who are cynical enough to buy into Trump as a way to gain power and still others who hate Trump but are too cowardly to oppose him. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/332 "2023-08-02T04:37:54Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I keep hearing “What about Hillary?” from her every time I ask her about the crimes Trump has been indicted for. Well, what about Hillary? Trump had four good years to have her investigated and put in jail, which is something he announced he was going to do during his campaign. I guess he was busy building that wall that Mexico paid for? I know that kind of logic just bounces off of a Trump supporter but at some point they really should start asking themselves why Clinton and Biden and etc. are so good at committing crimes and flawlessly getting away with them while the only thing Trump is good at is getting caught. The people testifying against Trump are _his own people_, the very best people that he personally picked! If the Deep State is that deep, she’s on the wrong damn side. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/333 "2023-08-02T12:29:37Z")
> [@](#): > > I keep hearing “What about Hillary?” . . . Congress changed the law to criminalize her private email server, containing government emails — after she was no longer using it: > **[National Archives Welcomes Presidential and Federal Records Act Amendments of...](https://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2015/nr15-23.html)** > > H.R. 1233 modernizes definition of Federal records to include electronic records On November 26th, President Barack Obama signed into law H.R. 1233, the Presidential and Federal Records Act Amendments of 2014. This new law modernizes records... Has Trump been charged with violating that one yet? ---
**Author:** ![Dung\_Beetle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dung_beetle/32/7945_2.png) [@Dung\_Beetle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dung_Beetle)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/334 "2023-08-02T12:34:41Z")
I’m dying to know what my mom thinks about all this. On the other hand, it’s probably best I don’t. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/335 "2023-08-02T14:02:02Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > > [@BobLibDem](#): > > > > But who says when this disqualification applies? > > Yep. How this bar is enforced is a question mark. I suppose someone would file a lawsuit demanding he be removed from the ballot (or preventing him from being sworn in if he’s allowed to run) and the courts would figure out if the conviction was the type of crime to prevent him from “holding office.” It should be _interesting_. I remain curious as to how exactly an actual disqualification of trump for office would be applied under section 3 of the 14th Amendment, especially in light of the now definite charges against him for Jan. 6. So I poked around the interwebs. * * * This site says “Section 3 is enforceable through civil lawsuits challenging a candidate’s eligibility to hold office.” > **[The case for Donald Trump's disqualification under the 14th Amendment - CREW...](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/donald-trumps-disqualification-from-office-14th-amendment/)** > > By attempting to overturn the election and inciting the January 6th attack, Donald Trump disqualified himself from holding public office. In this article, two organizations are attempting to have trump disqualified in certain states. Perhaps this is a real-world example of the ‘civil lawsuits’ the previous article mentions, in action? Unfortunately, other than Georgia, the states they are targeting are already quite blue. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4086124-activists-want-to-disqualify-trump-from-ballot-in-key-states-under-14th-amendment/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4086124-activists-want-to-disqualify-trump-from-ballot-in-key-states-under-14th-amendment/) This article just wishy-washily says that how section 3 would be applied is a legal gray area, and ‘theoretically’ could be applied to trump for the Jan. 6 crimes. [https://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment14/annotation15.html](https://constitution.findlaw.com/amendment14/annotation15.html) In any case, the ‘tl;dr’ version, from what I’m able to gather, is that no one really knows how section 3 of the 14th Amendment would or could be applied to trump. It doesn’t require a criminal conviction to apply section 3, but neither does a criminal conviction automatically enforce it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/336 "2023-08-02T14:31:15Z")
The 14th amendment dog isn’t going to hunt. There was no and will likely be no charge of insurrection or rebellion against the US. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/337 "2023-08-02T14:40:07Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > The 14th amendment dog isn’t going to hunt. There was no and will likely be no charge of insurrection or rebellion against the US Do you mean he won’t be charged specifically for ‘insurrection or rebellion against the US’, or that the current charges related to Jan. 6 will not result in a conviction? It seems to me that the Jan. 6 charges are sufficient to prove ‘insurrection or rebellion’: - one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States - one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding - one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding - one count of conspiracy against rights Of course, whether those charge result in a conviction in time, and whether even a conviction would result in section 3 of the 14th Amendment being enforced is a huge ‘if’. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/338 "2023-08-02T14:42:51Z")
I thing insurrection and rebellion are different breeds of cats than the charges filed. The writers were quite specific in the charges needed to trigger disability. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/339 "2023-08-02T15:09:37Z")
Maybe, but the Jan. 6 events are widely referred to as an ‘insurrection’ and there’s pretty clear-cut evidence that trump encouraged, and even directly caused, the events. But going from there to actually enforcing section 3 of the 14th is probably very, very unlikely. The code that Atamasama cited is possibly a more likely bar to trump holding office, though ‘more likely’ is still highly unlikely. Again, I’m sure the question of what authority would even enforce this is a big gray area, even though this sounds exactly like what trump did: > [@Atamasama](#): > > Note that the 14th Amendment is only one potential legal bar to Trump holding office on conviction. The other that has been cited is this one. > > [https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2071) > > > (a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both. > > > > (b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/340 "2023-08-02T15:39:36Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Has Trump been charged with violating that one yet? Nobody would be foolish enough to accuse Donald of ever using email. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/341 "2023-08-02T16:12:49Z")
The trouble with the US Code restriction is that it is very likely unconstitutional. The Congress may not set requirements for federal office that go above and beyond what the Constitution says. It’s for this reason that no states have term limits for federal office. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2023, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/342 "2023-08-02T16:16:49Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Well, 3/5ths of a people. I have pondered that was the second biggest mistake made in the compromises for the Constitution. “You want to own people? Fine, but they don’t count as population for representatives and such.” The first was their fear of the tyranny of the majority leading to tyranny of the _minority_ instead. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2023, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/343 "2023-08-04T02:59:04Z")
There’s a proof of Trump’s viability I failed to mention earlier. Four years ago, in Spring-Summer 2019, Biden averaged about ten points ahead of Trump, as can be seen scrolling down in the details towards the bottom here: [Biden-Trump General Election Polls, 2018 - 2020](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html#polls) If you look in my next link to see how they are doing four years later, in Spring-Summer 2023, one finds Trump averaging a popular vote near-tie that is actually a DJT advantage when the GOP’s 2, or more likely, 3 point electoral college advantage is taken into account: [Biden-Trump General Election Polls 2021-2023](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html#polls) Biden’s [popular vote margin in 2020 was 4.4 percent](https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/how-close-was-trump-to-winning-the-election/). As shown in my last link, if Biden’s margin had been one percent less, he almost surely would have lost. So if the trend line goes the same way it did four years ago, it looks like a near landslide for DJT. I’m NOT predicting a trend line repeat, because I think almost all voters have already made up their minds about next year. But Biden has, in office, lost popularity more than Trump has while out of office. Trump isn’t just viable. He’s the clear front runner. I hope Biden finds a message that breaks through, but with Trump, the master of negative publicity, dominating the news during his trials and likely convictions and appeals, it is hard for me to see how Joe does it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949.md?page=18)