# How is trump still a viable candidate for president? Really, how? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [May 12, 2023, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949 "2023-05-12T14:28:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1004 "2024-01-31T20:26:16Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Trump Is a Danger to U.S. Security Meh, John Bolton is just a woke Democrat socialist with no actual experience or knowledge in the field of national security. \< sarcasm. So, so much sarcasm \> ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1005 "2024-01-31T21:37:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Even the WSJ agrees- [Gift Link](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-a-danger-to-u-s-security-bolton-first-administration-54fc9cbe?st=6msm99ex5lxny4i&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink) This is from Oklahoma City public library Wall Street Journal access — I think it should work. Now, normally, I am not a John Bolton fan. And with all the bad things he says about Trump here, he never quite admits Biden is a safer choice. So – that’s a bit of the reason why Trump is still viable. But about 90 percent of the article is good. As to whether the WSJ, in some corporate or editorial sense, agrees with Bolton, I have no idea. ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1006 "2024-01-31T22:03:34Z")
Watched the Frontline episode [Democracy on Trial](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/democracy-on-trial/) last night and it was excellent. I don’t know how anybody with a grain of common sense in their head could watch that and think voting for Trump in 2024 would be a good idea. And after watching it boggles my mind how so many Republicans still seem to fall in line supporting him. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 31, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1007 "2024-01-31T22:24:41Z")
> [@Hampshire](#): > > And after watching it boggles my mind how so many Republicans still seem to fall in line supporting him. They are in a complete and total information bubble. They have no idea of what is really going on in the world. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1008 "2024-02-01T00:45:18Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [Gift Link](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-is-a-danger-to-u-s-security-bolton-first-administration-54fc9cbe?st=6msm99ex5lxny4i&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink) > > This is from Oklahoma City public library Wall Street Journal access — I think it should work. Thank you. Worked for me. _An even greater danger is that Mr. Trump will act on his desire to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. He came precariously close in 2018. The Supreme Court has never ruled authoritatively whether the president can abrogate Senate-ratified treaties, but presidents have regularly done so. Recently enacted legislation to stop Mr. Trump from withdrawing without congressional consent likely wouldn’t survive a court challenge. It could precipitate a constitutional crisis and years of litigation…And imagine Mr. Trump’s euphoria at resuming contact with North Korea’s Kim Jung Un, about whom he famously boasted that “we fell in love.” Mr. Trump almost gave away the store to Pyongyang, and he could try again. A reckless nuclear deal would alienate Japan and South Korea, extend China’s influence, and strengthen the Beijing-Moscow axis…A second Trump term would bring erratic policy and uncertain leadership, which the China-Russia axis would be only too eager to exploit._ ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1009 "2024-02-01T02:20:20Z")
Not sure where this belongs, but will post it here: It really is hard to keep up. > A Russian-American businessman based in Miami is suspected of making nearly $23 million from alleged insider trading involving former President Donald Trump’s media company, according to federal court records. The businessman, Anton Postolnikov, is the owner of a Caribbean bank that caters to the porn industry and also reportedly loaned $8 million to Trump’s media company. > **[Russian investor made millions off insider trading tied to Trump Media, court...](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article284580595.html)** > > A Russian-American businessman based in Miami is suspected of making nearly $23 million from alleged insider trading involving former President Donald Trump’s media company, according to federal court records. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1010 "2024-02-01T04:30:37Z")
Early polls don’t mean much. But maybe the abortion thing bothers women. Trump’s numbers are still surprisingly high. > **[Biden holds six-point national lead over Trump, fueled by female voters: poll](https://nypost.com/2024/01/31/news/biden-holds-six-point-national-lead-over-trump-fueled-by-women-poll/)** > > President Biden has a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, a new national poll shows. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1011 "2024-02-01T06:50:41Z")
That poll seems to be only of the popular vote.It doesn’t even mention the electoral vote. So it is meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1012 "2024-02-01T07:13:40Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > That poll seems to be only of the popular vote.It doesn’t even mention the electoral vote. Agreed! They need to find the electors and give a poll only to them. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 7:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1013 "2024-02-01T07:26:38Z")
What I meant was that the poll should have broken down the statistics by state. And then calculate the electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 9:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1014 "2024-02-01T09:30:46Z")
That’s not how polling works. There are state polls and national polls. This was a national poll, like thousands of others before it. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1015 "2024-02-01T11:31:47Z")
Here’s 538 page for Biden v. Trump polls. When they launch their forecast model – I think probably around June, but possible sooner – these will be the main input. High-quality state polls will have the highest weight (especially if they focus on likely voters), but national polls will be included. (Just to remind everyone _yet again_: “75% chance of winning” does _not_ mean “75% of the public favors this candidate.” It means, in 1 out of every 4 rolls of the dice (that’s a lot!), this candidate _loses._) (Ignore the “28 Jun 18” in the heading – that must be when they happened to set up this web page. The latest polls are from the past few days, and suggest the race is a tie – but this is very early days.) > **[President: general election Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1016 "2024-02-01T12:00:34Z")
Note that there does seem to be a real shift toward Biden in the past week (but this could turn out to be temporary, or just statistical noise.) Around January 15-22, most national polls had Trump up by an average of (I’m estimating) 4 or 5 points. Also note that a few polls are for Biden v. Haley. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1017 "2024-02-01T12:36:41Z")
Trump has been undermining the election for so long that his big problem now is to convince his supporters that they need to get out and vote. Because if they were to believe everything he says why would they bother wasting their time? ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1018 "2024-02-01T14:18:04Z")
No one’s ever said that Donald Trump can’t inspire people. /s > **['No Blame?' ABC News finds 54 cases invoking 'Trump' in connection with...](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blame-abc-news-finds-17-cases-invoking-trump/story?id=58912889)** > > President Donald Trump insists he deserves no blame for divisions in America. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1019 "2024-02-01T14:31:37Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Early polls don’t mean much. Probably. But the sample size of presidential elections, with early polling, is too small to say this with confidence. And outlier polls like this mean nothing even if right before the election. If I squint at the polls, Trump had an uptick in late September, now faded. But he’s still a bit ahead considering electoral college effects. If I wanted to be an optimist, I would say that the Democratic ticket currently has two unpopular politicians, while the GOP ticket only has one. Unfair for Democrats! If.Trump picks a heartbeat law advocate for VP, both tickets will have two unpopular candidates, and. there’s potential for Biden to pull ahead. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1020 "2024-02-01T15:32:48Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > [20240126151819211\_23-719 Brief.pdf (supremecourt.gov)](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/298895/20240126151819211_23-719%20Brief.pdf) this one is from historians who did a very deep dive into the 14th amendment, and found it did indeed cover the president. [Here’s a CNN article about how groups trying to keep trump off the ballot are hoping to use a 2014 opinion from the late Justice Scalia to convince SCOTUS to rule in their favor.](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/01/politics/supreme-court-trump-14th-amendment-scalia/index.html) Justice from beyond the grave? Will the ‘Scalias’ of justice weigh against trump? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 1, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1021 "2024-02-01T19:45:29Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Note that there does seem to be a real shift toward Biden in the past week (but this could turn out to be temporary, or just statistical noise.) Around January 15-22, most national polls had Trump up by an average of (I’m estimating) 4 or 5 points. Well, people are starting to realize that yes, the economy _is_ better. And yes, trump is a criminal. But I saw polls back then that gave Biden a small edge over trump. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > If I wanted to be an optimist, I would say that the Democratic ticket currently has two unpopular politicians Yes, Biden is very unpopular with Republicans. Go figure. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2024, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1022 "2024-02-03T16:48:13Z")
[https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-719.html](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-719.html) Quite a few briefs have been submitted. Last night I read 4. One of them is a brief for the petitioner. They are hanging their hats on the following points: The president is not an “officer of the United States”. Trump did not engage in anything that qualifies as an insurrection. In the summary of the the argument they come up with: Trump also never swore an oath before he became president that could trigger the application of section 3. Seriously. Seriously! The man took an oath in front of a “huge” crowd Jan. 2017! Then came up with a scheme in 2020 and broke it in 2021. Feb. 8 should be an interesting day. Thankfully there will be real time audio. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949/1023 "2024-02-07T20:54:11Z")
Pragmatic policy or perpetual pettiness? As Black Sheep says, “the choice is yours”. > **[Welcome Back to the Chaos of the Trump Era](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/trump-republican-national-convention-chaos-2024/677375/)** > > Yesterday provided a small glimpse of the madness to come. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-is-trump-still-a-viable-candidate-for-president-really-how/983949.md?page=52)