# How Likely is a Worldwide Ebola Outbreak **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [March 25, 2014, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523 "2014-03-25T14:08:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2014, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/21 "2014-03-27T03:45:56Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > There are links galore about it. It appears to be the same gene that made some people immune to bubonic plague. People who have it can be HIV positive, indicating that they were exposed to the AIDS virus at some time, but they don’t get AIDS. I meant about asymptomatic carriers of Ebola. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/22 "2014-03-31T14:29:11Z")
[The Guinea ebola outbreak spreads to Sierra Leone and Liberia](http://www.theverge.com/us-world/2014/3/31/5565482/ebola-kills-70-in-guinea-spreads-to-liberia-west-africa). Scary stuff. Let’s hope that the outbreak can be contained considering the limited resources of the countries involved. ---
**Author:** ![mandala](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mandala/32/95_2.png) [@mandala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mandala)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2014, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/23 "2014-04-01T03:28:07Z")
Apparently some vaccines were tested successfully on non-human primates but the FDA has “no candidate vaccines” for human use. Can someone with the knowledge explain why? Unlike Influenza A, Ebola does not mutate all that often. Besides, Ebola has enormous bioweapon and natural pandemic potential. ---
**Author:** ![TruCelt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/trucelt/32/523_2.png) [@TruCelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TruCelt)\ **Post date:** [April 1, 2014, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/24 "2014-04-01T15:16:40Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > There are links galore about it. It appears to be the same gene that made some people immune to bubonic plague. People who have it can be HIV positive, indicating that they were exposed to the AIDS virus at some time, but they don’t get AIDS. CCR5 - Delta32. It basically disrupts the entry process of certain types of virus through the human cell membranes. Provides immunity to Bubonic Plague, small pox, and highly protective (for those with two copies of the mutation) against HIV, although there have been cases. People with only one copy have been shown to be vulnerable to HIV infection, but will be much healthier, much longer than those without the mutation. It is not protective against all viruses though, and I’ve never seen anything suggesting that it had been shown to be protective against Ebola. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2014, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/25 "2014-06-27T22:27:23Z")
[The outbreak continues](http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/26/health/ebola-outbreak-west-africa/index.html?hpt=hp_t4). Over two month since we last posted about this, and the latest Ebola eruption is still not contained. Now what? ---
**Author:** ![No\_umlaut\_for\_U](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ea5d25/32.png) [@No\_umlaut\_for\_U](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_umlaut_for_U)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2014, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/26 "2014-06-28T01:20:55Z")
I believe that some sort of drastic measure needs to be taken, such as quarantining passengers from flights originating in West Africa until any potential incubation period is passed. ---
**Author:** ![Ferret\_Herder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e47774/32.png) [@Ferret\_Herder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferret_Herder)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2014, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/27 "2014-06-28T02:12:18Z")
Finding quarantine facilities in/near every airport in the world that can contain, separately (to avoid spreading it to uninfected detainees), everyone leaving West Africa for two weeks at a time will prove quite difficult. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2014, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/28 "2014-06-28T02:24:35Z")
Considering that Ebola is not contagious until it is symptomatic, quarantine is more than a bit overkill. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2014, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/29 "2014-07-31T21:31:32Z")
Updates show the death toll has topped 700 in this outbreak of the EBOV subtype. Historically this strain has had a death rate of around 90% but early patient care has dropped the toll to around 60%. A trial serum has been delivered and administered to one American aid worker. There are plans for a phase 1 [trial of a vaccine](http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/07/31/ebola-vaccine-trial/13404609/) to commence in September. Sad to think this is expected to rage on that long. Prominently, [Dr Sheik Umar Khan](http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sheik-umar-khan-top-ebola-doctor-dies-from-virus-after-treating-dozens-1.2721049), the leader of Sierra Leone’s efforts to contain the virus, died a few days ago from the disease. Could this turn into a wider global outbreak? Yes. Definitely. Ebola can be spread from contact with body fluids in the early symptomatic phase of the disease. Early symptoms such as fever, headache, and diarrhea can easily be mistaken for other conditions. Patients do NOT normally have external bleeding in the early stages of the disease. So a family member who contacts the soiled bedding of an ill loved one may be exposed to the disease. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2014, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/30 "2014-08-02T21:34:15Z")
Couldn’t the virus mutate and thereby possibly pass more easily? I believe I read this strain is already a little different from other ebola strains in the past. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2014, 6:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/31 "2014-08-03T06:41:14Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Plus, if it gets too bad, we can always hop in the time machine and prevent it before it spreads. Sorry, the time machine is in use, and won’t be back until it’s made stops at Golgotha, Ford’s Theater, Braunau am Inn and the Grassy knoll. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2014, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/32 "2014-08-03T10:11:08Z")
Depends where you are. In some countries, Big Time. In others, not so much. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2014, 10:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523/33 "2014-08-03T10:15:58Z")
> [@Biotop](#): > > Couldn’t the virus mutate and thereby possibly pass more easily? I believe I read this strain is already a little different from other ebola strains in the past. The current outbreak is [described in the research literature](http://epidemic.bio.ed.ac.uk/ebolavirus_phylogeny) as coming from a “divergent variant” of the EBOV subtype, also known as _Ebola Zaire_. It may be a pre-existing lineage rather than a spread from the Central African locales where EBOV has previously been observed. It is very similar, close enough to call it the same subtype, but slightly different than what has been previously seen in prior EBOV outbreaks. Could it become easier to transmit? Yes. The REBOV Ebola subtype (Reston) is transmissible through the air. Fortunately that variant does not cause disease in humans. There was some concern that a strain from a prior EBOV outbreak was showing some signs of limited airborne transmission in tests with animals in a [study published in 2012.](http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/121115/srep00811/full/srep00811.html) [These findings indicated](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423) that EBOV _might_ could be spread in large droplets expelled in a cough or sneeze that are then inhaled and cause infection. This is nowhere near a easily transmitted as influenza, but still a \*possible \*route of infection. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-a-worldwide-ebola-outbreak/684523.md?page=1)