# How Likely is It that Trump will Try to Proclaim Martial Law? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 17, 2020, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294 "2020-12-17T22:09:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/301 "2021-01-02T00:44:42Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > C’mon, this is the new Trump supporter logic — it’s unfair to begin an investigation without proof beyond a reasonable doubt. I don’t know if that’s “Trump supporter logic”, but it’s not something I, or anyone else in this thread, has argued. Of course you don’t need proof beyond a reasonable to begin an investigation. But you should have _something_. I think you’re right that there is actually pretty good evidence of an alliance between Donald Trump and the National Enquirer. That fact is pretty thin gruel by itself, though. The fact that the NE _might_ have assisted Trump with assembling and using blackmail material isn’t actually that they did, much less that Ted Cruz or any other Republican official was successfully blackmailed into spiking their own careers and giving up their own political power and autonomy. > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > We know that they did at least once, with Joe Scarborough. It was an ultimately ineffective attempt because they had nothing current, while his affair may have been scandalous if it had been revealed while he was married — now that he and Mika are both officially divorced, there is no scandal and it didn’t take any great act of courage for Joe to call his bluff. But the damage - and intimidation- also happened when the NE was using their constitutionally protected reporters to stalk and harass the couple and their friends and family. One _failed_ attempt doesn’t actually provide much evidence that they _successfully_ pulled of this scheme, with _much_ bigger stakes. It’s certainly possible that at least some Republicans were intimidated enough by the possibility of being dragged through the tabloid mud that they didn’t think it was worth the cost of opposing Trump. That seems to be a weaker argument than the one I think you’re making, though. > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > I also detected Jared Kushner’s greasy Saudi-scented fingerprints all over the Jeff Bezos blackmail scheme, which was much more serious and ultimately took out the National Enquirer. That’s…that’s not evidence. At all. The fact that _you_ “detected” Jared Kushner’s fingerprints isn’t actually evidence. The Bezos wrangle with the National Enquirer is also still a far cry from the idea that a sitting U.S. Senator and major Republican power player was somehow blackmailed into publicly reversing himself on Trump and, again, sacrificing his own personal political power and autonomy. Just what is this blackmail material supposed to be, anyway? > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > And when I’m weighing circumstantial evidence, I’m allowed to consider that Kushner comes from a family that was engaged in criminal activity, and that his father actually went to prison for extortion. You’re not actually. I mean, yeah, you _can_, I can’t actually stop you, but…seriously? His _father_ was a convicted extortionist? Generational contamination? That’s not only not actually evidence, it’s downright reprehensible. > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, as they say That’s a folk adage, not evidence. It’s also reprehensible. Children _aren’t_ their parents, and they don’t inherit guilt from them. > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > Kushner’s actions ( his Chris Christie vendetta) indicate that he lays the blame with the prosecutors that nailed his dad rather than with his dad. So we know he doesn’t think extortion is wrong. That doesn’t really follow. The fact that Jared Kushner stands by his father isn’t actually evidence that he’s an extortionist. It’s evidence that family loyalty blinds him to objective evidence. > [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > So I think I’ve made a good circumstantial case. I don’t think you actually have. Again, it’s one thing to say that Trump’s allies in the tabloid press had a habit of harassing his enemies, and that might have been a factor in some Republicans’ reluctance to oppose him. If that’s actually all you’re saying, I’m right there with you. Please correct me if I’m wrong. I _think_ you’re arguing that Jared Kushner coordinated a blackmail campaign that intimidated Ted Cruz among others to give up their opposition to Donald Trump and start openly supporting him and spend their political capital on his behalf. If that’s what you’re arguing, I think you’re wrong. I don’t think there’s any evidence of that happening. And yes, I know, proof beyond a reasonable doubt is an unfair standard for a message board discussion. But I don’t think there’s _any_ evidence. And I actually do think, even on a message board, you _should_ have evidence before you advance speculations like that. Obviously, you don’t technically _need_ it. You can post whatever wild speculations you’d like (within the rules of the board). But I personally think these kinds of speculations are part of the toxic political environment that we’re in. And, again, it’s just not necessary to explain what happened. A couple of Republicans fought a bitter primary battle, and after one became the nominee, the other one fell in line. That’s literally every contested Republican Presidential primary campaign in the modern primary era. This one was weirder than previous ones because Trump was a wrecking ball who smashed norms. Cruz was just playing by the old Republican handbook. Maybe because he’s a party loyalist. Maybe because his a partisan tribalist. Maybe because he genuinely thinks Democrats are a threat to the country, and Trump was the lesser of two evils. Maybe because he has an authoritarian personality, and is naturally deferential to a blustering bully. Maybe because he calculated that it was in his own best interests to stay relevant in the party. Maybe because he was afraid of being primaried by a Trumpist down the line. Probably a combination of all of those. And sure, quite possibly the added factor of being the target of media sleaze campaigns weighed into his thinking. But that’s all _open_ motivations. No secret blackmail schemes required. ---
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/302 "2021-01-02T00:46:49Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > It’s always nuts to me when somebody suggests that we, the denizens of an internet message board, cannot speculate on the crimes of any public figure without first possessing the keys to the evidence locker. That’s just silly. You _can_ speculate on whatever you want, with or without evidence. By the same token, _I_ can object to those speculations and tell you that I think you’re wrong. I don’t think there’s anything silly about that. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/303 "2021-01-02T01:39:20Z")
Actually, I think you misunderstood what I am saying. I am saying that Trump has no ethics or sense of fair play when it comes to smearing his opponents. The Ted Cruz “Five Mistresses” story was a demonstration of both the depth of his sources and his willingness to expose the private lives of lawmakers in a way that had previously been sort of off-limits. I’m saying that the story sent a message to anyone and everyone that wanted to oppose or speak negatively of Trump and that it informed their behavior with regards to Trump. It didn’t necessarily make them all immediately fall in line and swear immediate fealty to Trump, but it caused them to not want to be the loudest critic in the room. And I think it plays a large factor as to why a certain group of Republicans went into full retreat mode (the Bush-Ryan faction) rather than speaking up for traditional conservatism. That’s why I think the Enquirer / Cruz stories were important in shaping the narrative and I think the Enquirer systematically went after his opponents. And I don’t think it’s a far cry to think that blackmail happened more than once, since we know it happened once. Of course, I think Donald Trump is a criminal who only managed to avoid jail by using his power and influence to get what should’ve been felony level fraud charges reduced to high dollar civil settlements. I think the Trump Administration is a criminal enterprise and I think anyone that supports Donald Trump is some combination of stupid, uninformed and amoral. If that sounds harsh, I do recognize that, when faced with the binary choice of a general election, someone that does not support Donald Trump might chose to vote for him. And while the person making that choice would have priorities that are vastly different than mine, they are not necessarily stupid, uninformed or amoral. My harsh comment is aimed at people that actually support him. My opinion is a largely based on 30+ years of working with a wealthy clientele that includes prominent real estate magnates. While some large real estate companies are legitimate, others only exist and thrive because the regulatory atmosphere is much less rigid than it is in the financial industry. As a result, there are some that are very shady barely legitimate businesses and The Trump Organization is high up on that list. He’s a gangster, Kushner is a gangster, the kids are gangsters and the fact that 60 million people voted to make him President in 2016 doesn’t mean he’s not a gangster. ---
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/304 "2021-01-02T02:06:35Z")
Thank you for the clarification. We may not be as far apart as I thought. I’d agree that the National Enquirer did at times seem to almost act as a propaganda arm of The Trump Organization. I think it’s self-evident that Fox News (at least the opinion programming part of it) acted pretty openly as a propaganda arm of Trump’s administration for most of the last four years, and various right wing “news” sources continue to do so. I’d agree that the prospect of public attacks from Trump’s media allies is _part_ of the calculus that have cowed many Republicans that might otherwise have opposed Trump. I _don’t_ think a fear of secret blackmail files entered into it, though. And I think the fear of media attacks was only a relatively small and secondary component of their calculus. I don’t think most of them are afraid of secrets in their private lives being revealed. I think most of them are afraid of losing their relevance within the party, of losing the support of their constituents, and of losing their offices due to being primaried by a Trumpist. Again, look at the timeline. I may be misremembering, but it seemed to me that none of his primary opponents dropped out unexpectedly early - they went as far and as long as their vote shares and donations would carry them. Trump’s opponents within the party became vocal supporters pretty much exactly in proportion to his vote totals. As he became the front-runner, then the presumptive nominee, then the nominee, then the President, his support grew. That’s _exactly_ what we would expect to see from normal political bandwagon effects. Also take a look at safe seats vs. “purple” seats. Trump’s support among Republican officials also seems pretty directly proportional to the threat they face of being primaried vs. the threat they face from losing in a general election. Again, normal political calculus. It’s not an absolute correlation, of course, but I don’t personally don’t see any evidence of a pattern of support that differs from what I’d expect to see from bog standard venal political calculations. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/305 "2021-01-02T04:29:30Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > It’s also worth noting that, _contra_ Matlock Law School, circumstantial evidence is totally admissible in court, and prosecutors get convictions all the time with it. I mean it’s not uncommon at all to convict solely on circumstantial evidence, if it’s sufficiently convincing. [Scott Peterson - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Peterson#:~:text=Scott%20Lee%20Peterson%20)(born%20October,Conner%2C%20in%20Modesto%2C%20California. [Cameron Todd Willingham - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameron_Todd_Willingham#:~:text=Huntsville%2C%20Texas%2C%20U.S.&text=Cameron%20Todd%20Willingham%20)(January%209,%2C%20on%20December%2023%2C%201991.&text=This%20coverage%20suggested%20that%20the%20arson%20evidence%20was%20misinterpreted. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2021, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/306 "2021-01-02T04:45:26Z")
> [@agzem](#): > > “…Trump was criticized, especially by Democrats, **for _failing_ to assert the draconian powers** he had, such as commandeering the means of industrial production under the Defense Production Act of 1950, invoked by Truman to force industry to produce materials needed for the Korean War. In March, _The Washington Post_ [reported](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/19/defense-production-act-trump-coronavirus/) that “Governors, Democrats in Congress and some Senate Republicans have been urging Trump for at least a week to invoke the act, Exercising an authority granted by Congress, when urged to do so by numerous other elected officials in Congress and the state houses, some from the opposite party, when the nation is facing a serious public health emergency, doesn’t strike me as dictatorial. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2021, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/307 "2021-01-03T21:27:13Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > If the evidence has to be falsifiable then that means that nobody is ever allowed to speculate about blackmail, because the public never gets the evidence until the trial. Well, I’d assume you agree Barack Obama wasn’t being blackmailed by Malaysia and Ronald Reagan was not on the payroll of the Spanish. You must have some evidence - even if it’s circumstantial - to accuse some people of being blackmailed. You’re not speculating randomly, right? ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2021, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/308 "2021-01-03T23:27:37Z")
All 10 living former defense secretaries say he needs to give it up > **[All 10 living former defense secretaries declare election is over in forceful...](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/03/politics/trump-election-defense-secretaries-public-letter/index.html)** > > All 10 living former US defense secretaries declared that the US presidential election is over in a forceful public letter published in The Washington Post on Sunday as President Donald Trump continues to deny his election loss to Joe Biden. When you lose Dick Cheney ! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2021, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/309 "2021-01-04T01:17:02Z")
From the “coup” thread in this forum, I posted the following money quotes from the article: > “Our elections have occurred. Recounts and audits have been conducted. Appropriate challenges have been addressed by the courts. Governors have certified the results. And the electoral college has voted. The time for questioning the results has passed; the time for the formal counting of the electoral college votes, as prescribed in the Constitution and statute, has arrived". > (Any effort by the military to settle an election dispute) “would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory.” > “Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294.md?page=15)