# How Likely is It that Trump will Try to Proclaim Martial Law? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 17, 2020, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294 "2020-12-17T22:09:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/61 "2020-12-21T13:41:25Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I don’t think there’s any danger of that happening. These guys like to sit around in their bunkers, rubbing their guns, and talk about how badass they are. But actually go out into a situation against people who can shoot back? They’re all talk. It only took 2 or 3 to blow up the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. I don’t think that we are going to see armies of militias marching in the streets and taking control over cities or areas. I am concerned that we will see a significant uptick in domestic terrorism. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/62 "2020-12-21T15:39:15Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > It only took 2 or 3 to blow up the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. I’m not saying they’re unwilling to commit violence and kill people. I’m saying they’re unwilling to stand up and face anyone who might threaten them. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/63 "2020-12-21T15:44:12Z")
> [@Peter\_Morris](#): > > The thing is, he’s in serious legal trouble the instant his presidency ends. He doesn’t have much to lose by trying it, and he’s insane enough to try. If he believes that his legal troubles are less threatening than the legal troubles arising from an overt attempted coup, then he’d attempt the coup. I agree with that much. To me, the calculation seems to weigh against that kind of coup, so he won’t attempt it. He’ll likely pardon himself for every federal charge. He’ll continue to delay and defer the SDNY charge. The pardon may eventually be overturned, but it also may not. SDNY arrest may eventually come nigh, but he can just hole up in Trump Towers Istanbul or Trump International Dubai. Most developed countries have an extradition treaty with the US, but there’s been a totally coincidental epidemic of countries blowing off international treaties with no consequences whatsoever. Suffice to say I think the incentives against it far outweigh Trump’s incentives in favor of declaring martial law without stated support of the military. But would he try, if his self-preservation calculus demanded it? Absolutely, no doubt about it. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/64 "2020-12-21T15:45:33Z")
But what if it’s not terrorism? What if it’s a right wing occupy movement where lines of pick up trucks with Trump flags block traffic all over the US? Only the trucks are filled with guys with guns. It seems like a dangerous threat but they aren’t doing anything ‘wrong’ except bringing traffic to a halt. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/65 "2020-12-21T15:55:15Z")
I don’t see why people are having a hard time accepting what the evidence is pointing to. Trump is an incompetent loser who is lying. When people start theorizing about how Donald Trump has a secret plan to seize power because he’s a political mastermind, I have to ask if we’re talking about the same person. What have we seen in the last four years - or the last forty years - that would indicate Trump is capable of forming a good plan and then carrying it out? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/66 "2020-12-21T16:13:20Z")
Then when the police ask them to move along, they can demonstrate that they are the party of law and order. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > What have we seen in the last four years - or the last forty years - that would indicate Trump is capable of forming a good plan and then carrying it out? Nothing. However, what we have seen is more competent people attaching themselves to him and using his “brand” for their own personal gain. If Trump choked to death on a KFC drumstick right now, there would still be his supporters wanting to advance what they see as his agenda for their own personal gain. Can you tell me of _any_ martyrs that personally benefited from the actions of their followers? ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/67 "2020-12-21T16:16:05Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > When people start theorizing about how Donald Trump has a secret plan to seize power because he’s a political mastermind, I have to ask if we’re talking about the same person. I’m beginning to think that Donald Trump is not the brilliant tactician that we thought he was. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/yR1QL7CJltQ/hqdefault.jpg "Not The Brilliant Tactician I Thought He Was... (The Simpsons)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR1QL7CJltQ) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/68 "2020-12-21T17:31:56Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > However, what we have seen is more competent people attaching themselves to him and using his “brand” for their own personal gain. Sure, they attached themselves to Trump when he was on top. But he lost. Right now, the competent people are all working on putting distance between themselves and the Trump administration and figuring out where they’re going to spend the next four years. The only ones who are sticking with Trump at this point are the hopeless cases. ---
**Author:** ![Jay\_Z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Jay\_Z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jay_Z)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/69 "2020-12-21T17:43:39Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > But what if it’s not terrorism? What if it’s a right wing occupy movement where lines of pick up trucks with Trump flags block traffic all over the US? Only the trucks are filled with guys with guns. It seems like a dangerous threat but they aren’t doing anything ‘wrong’ except bringing traffic to a halt. How does that help Trump? Any more than all of the women’s marches after Trump won prevented him from being president? The ship of state isn’t going to turn because of a bunch of rogue idiots. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/70 "2020-12-21T17:45:52Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > The ship of state isn’t going to turn because of a bunch of rogue idiots. The rogue idiots make trouble and incite violence, and that helps give Trump his justification for Martial law (or whatever) and his attempts to have the military take over. "We must restore law and order! Look at all the violence! (ignoring that the violence is being committed by his own supporters) ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/71 "2020-12-21T17:49:01Z")
Or people who think that they can gain themselves a following. I’m not talking politicians here, I’m talking militia leaders and other wannabe paramilitary assholes. “For Trump!” could well be the rallying cry as they do their best to outdo 9/11. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/72 "2020-12-21T17:55:18Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > “For Trump!” could well be the rallying cry as they do their best to outdo 9/11. In terms of deaths, Trump is already outdoing 9/11 every single day. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/73 "2020-12-21T17:58:40Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > I’m not talking politicians here, I’m talking militia leaders and other wannabe paramilitary assholes. > > “For Trump!” could well be the rallying cry as they do their best to outdo 9/11. There most likely will be a series of domestic terrorist attacks after Biden’s inauguration. There are some crazy people living in this country and Trump has fired them up. Some people will die. But like 9/11, there won’t be anything that approaches the level of threatening the existence of the country, our system of government, or the Biden administration. The deaths will just further discredit the right wing. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/74 "2020-12-21T18:10:16Z")
Martial law doesn’t require an attack, just chaos. If they block interstate commerce, Trump has his excuse. But, martial law does not prevent the transition of power. Well - no more than an audit prevents IRS disclosure. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/75 "2020-12-21T18:27:56Z")
Right, which means that if he declares martial law and deploys troops, then come Jan 20th, those troops are under Biden’s command. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/76 "2020-12-21T18:37:25Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > come Jan 20th, those troops are under Biden’s command. … and he orders them to lock Trump up, and anyone else who commits a crime on behalf of Trump. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/77 "2020-12-21T18:45:05Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Some people will die. But like 9/11, there won’t be anything that approaches the level of threatening the existence of the country, our system of government, or the Biden administration. The deaths will just further discredit the right wing. This would be more like McVeigh than Osama. 9/11 was an attack from outside, on “symbols” of our wealth and power. Domestic terrorism could be much more surgically targeted. Attacks on government offices, government officials, and their families, if they are not “patriotic” enough for these assholes. 9/11 and even the OKC bombing were one-offs. Once things had settled, we were pretty sure it was over, that there were no more attacks planned or in the works. With domestic terrorism like this, we would not have that assurance. Every day that someone shows up at the capitol building for their state, they will need to worry about what could happen. Every time they go home from work, they will need to worry about their families. I don’t think it will be organized, which means that catching one particular cell will do little to stop or discourage the others. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/78 "2020-12-21T18:56:03Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > I don’t think it will be organized, which means that catching one particular cell will do little to stop or discourage the others. I think it might be just a bunch of these losers, and the end result for them will be arrest, conviction and jail time. > **['Pizzagate' gunman sentenced to 4 years in prison | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pizzagate-edgar-welch-sentence-1.4173523)** > > Edgar Welch was sentenced Thursday to four years in prison for firing an assault rifle inside a Washington, D.C., restaurant during his own investigation of a conspiracy theory dubbed pizzagate. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/79 "2020-12-21T19:34:30Z")
Historically, the 2000’s were not the peak of terrorism in the United States. There were significantly more terrorist attacks in the seventies than there were in the 2000’s. There were 1470 terrorist attacks in the United States between 1970 and 1979. There were 214 terrorist attacks in the United States between 2002 and 2013. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [December 21, 2020, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294/80 "2020-12-21T20:56:18Z")
Not the same thing though. The Trump appointees may have sworn their oaths, but they were also getting some degree of political patronage (i.e. jobs) from his administration. They stood to gain from breaking those oaths. The vast majority of military officers, and probably virtually of them above about O-3 swore their oaths prior to Trump taking office. And probably a big chunk of the enlisted did as well. So none of them immediately stood to benefit from Trump’s administration when they took their oaths. And really, they don’t particularly stand to benefit now either. I don’t see the military budging a millimeter to support Trump’s nonsense. It’s not within what they’ve been chartered to do and it’s not legal - for Trump to order it, or for the military to obey it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-that-trump-will-try-to-proclaim-martial-law/928294.md?page=5)