# How likely is it the U.S. will ever trade with Cuba again? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 8, 2006, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995 "2006-09-08T22:09:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![diggleblop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ac91a4/32.png) [@diggleblop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/diggleblop)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/1 "2006-09-08T22:09:19Z")
**S** ubject **S** ays **I** t **A** ll ---
**Author:** ![FormerMarineGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/65b543/32.png) [@FormerMarineGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FormerMarineGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/2 "2006-09-08T22:11:14Z")
I am not sure if this is a question that can get a definite answer, but if I had to guess, I would say pretty likely. Fidel’s brother already opened up the possibility of better relations with the US in his recent speech, although the Bush administration basically said no chance until the government changes. But change comes (on both sides), so it is likely to happen. Plus, it will benefit the United States just as much, if not more, than Cuba. ---
**Author:** ![gazpacho](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6f9a4e/32.png) [@gazpacho](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gazpacho)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/3 "2006-09-08T22:25:58Z")
Eventually all the Cubans living in the states that have direct memories of fleeing Cuba will have died and there wont be a big block of single issue voters concerned about punishing the Cuban government and relations will become more normal. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/4 "2006-09-08T22:29:03Z")
Since a definite factual answer is not possible, moved to IMHO. **samclem** ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/5 "2006-09-08T22:31:40Z")
100% certain, given enough time. Considering Fidel’s health and the fact that the hostility of the Cuban-American population will gradually wane as the original exiles die off, something will probably give on one or both sides within the next decade if not sooner. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2006, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/6 "2006-09-08T22:42:36Z")
100% likely, once Castro definitively dies. Then there’ll be a few years of back and forth until whoever is left running Cuba (Raul Castro will have to go too) ditches the whole communism thing. Then it’ll be like Vietnam. We would have normalized relations with Cuba a long time ago if Castro weren’t still around. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2006, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-it-the-u-s-will-ever-trade-with-cuba-again/371995/7 "2006-09-09T02:08:56Z")
Considering that American producers legally exported $185 million in goods and services to Cuba in the first half of 2006 alone, making them our 89th largest export market, I’d say pretty good. [PDF cite](http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh6s.pdf)