# How likely is this scenario? Global warming at 4C **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 12, 2018, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484 "2018-08-12T18:16:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/41 "2018-08-16T05:59:57Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > I don’t know the woman personally, if she’s written something you want me to read, please provide a link … it’s an overnight trip to visit a library that would have anything remotely close to this material … [This pos](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21145773&postcount=20)t, for starters, provides a link to a pertinent paper by Jennifer Francis, another link to a short summary of it, a link to an extensive IPCC assessment of climate change impacts, and another link to a summary chart. If you want links, you’ve got links, but my guess is that you didn’t read any of it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/42 "2018-08-16T16:08:24Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > I read it again … but it doesn’t answer the question of who pays for a billion people to have electric stoves to cook their meals on so they don’t have to burn wood? … light bulb = 20 W … large burner on high = 2,500 W … The question really is if you will acknowledge that there was a lot of ignorance in your previous replies. Your reply showed that you ignored that\*\* I did point out who was paying\*\*. As for cooking meals you are still implying that it is more evil to “prevent” (No one is really doing that) poor people from the developing countries from cooking by burning wood, but then it follows that such logic then considers that is “good” then to have several of them die of lung diseases with all that smoke first and later having to endure other bad issues because of the changing climate thanks to that smoke too. But as it turns out, yours is a fallacy that excludes a big middle: Current efforts are geared to offer very low emission cooking burners and also electrical ones that need very little energy. > **[Can Cleaner Cooking and Solar Power Help Solve Energy Poverty in Africa?...](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solving-energy-poverty-in-africa-and-the-world/)** > > South Africa still struggles to ensure that all citizens enjoy modern energy services, just one example of how the U.N.'s International Year of Sustainable Energy for All aims to bring modern energy resources to the billions who lack it > **[Solar power: cheap energy source for Africa](https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/october-2006/solar-power-cheap-energy-source-africa)** > > Kerosene lamps and sore eyes were once routine elements of grading student homework. Solar electricity has changed that. Caroline Hombe, a 35-year-old teacher in rural Mhondoro, Zimbabwe, can go through the pile of books stacked on her table without... > [@watchwolf49](#): > > As far as Jenifer Frances: > > I don’t know the woman personally, if she’s written something you want me to read, please provide a link … it’s an overnight trip to visit a library that would have anything remotely close to this material … What \*\*Wolfpup \*_said, but here I have to add that it is noticeable that you ignore what she is a Professor at Rutgers University_. And it has to be pointed out that \*\*I linked to her work before on a previous reply to you. \*\* [https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20294473&postcount=21](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20294473&postcount=21) - [sub]Jennifer Francis earned a B.S. in Meteorology from San Jose State University in 1988 and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1994. As a professor at Rutgers University since 1994, she taught courses in satellite remote sensing and climate-change issues, and also co-founded and co-directed the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative [/sub] ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/43 "2018-08-17T01:10:24Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > [snip] … What \*\*Wolfpup \*_said, but here I have to add that it is noticeable that you ignore what she is a Professor at Rutgers University_. And it has to be pointed out that \*\*I linked to her work before on a previous reply to you. \*\* > > [https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20294473&postcount=21](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=20294473&postcount=21) Ah … I didn’t realize we were giving YouTube the same scientific credibility as Geophysical Research Letters … I found the paper late last night on the Not-so-Deep Web … [“Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes”](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051000) – Geophysical Research Letters – Mar 28th, 2012 … This paper does not substantiate the “hurricane” claim, the tropics aren’t mentioned … nor this “slower winds causes faster winds” claim, not a word to this effect … neither do the videos except that she emphasizes she’s researching polar areas, not tropical … > [@](#): > > More prolonged weather conditions enhance the probability for extreme weather due to drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves. This seems to be the statement that’s got everyone’s knickers in a knot … but she fails to state how much … y’all are free to say 10,000%, I’m free to say 0.01% … in the video interview she repeated states that “nice” weather will also be prolonged … perhaps in her next paper she can elaborate on this point … She confirmed my first impression of her paper in the video interview {7’35"} … this is ground breaking research, there’s more we don’t know about the jet stream than we do … I’m pleased she has taken this on and getting top quality information published … > [@](#): > > Particular causes are difficult to implicate, but these sorts of occurrences are consistent with the analysis and mechanism presented in this study. No smoking gun … not yet … I can see why she put this statement in the paper … she may well be on the right track nailing specific dynamic events to AGW … y’all _should_ be excited about this … ===== “Slower winds/faster winds” … did you just make that up or do you have another citation? … that’s why I wanted to read the actual paper … slower polar jet stream is exactly what I claim above about less average power in the atmosphere … faster zonal winds anywhere else doesn’t conserve energy … and this is your claim, not hers … You deserve more time from me answering your solar-power-for-Africa part of your post than I can give right now … please be patient … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/44 "2018-08-17T04:59:52Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Ah … I didn’t realize we were giving YouTube the same scientific credibility as Geophysical Research Letters … I found the paper late last night on the Not-so-Deep Web … [“Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes”](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051000) – Geophysical Research Letters – Mar 28th, 2012 … > > This paper does not substantiate the “hurricane” claim, the tropics aren’t mentioned … nor this “slower winds causes faster winds” claim, not a word to this effect … neither do the videos except that she emphasizes she’s researching polar areas, not tropical … Nice straw man, because the extreme events we were talking about there were about droughts and snow storms becoming more intense. Not hurricanes indeed. And it is clear that: yes you already did met Professor Francis before, and the medium where she shows the evidence is not as important as finding out that you do think that scientists using video are automatically disqualified from explaining what is going on. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > This seems to be the statement that’s got everyone’s knickers in a knot … but she fails to state how much … y’all are free to say 10,000%, I’m free to say 0.01% … in the video interview she repeated states that “nice” weather will also be prolonged … perhaps in her next paper she can elaborate on this point … > > She confirmed my first impression of her paper in the video interview {7’35"} … this is ground breaking research, there’s more we don’t know about the jet stream than we do … I’m pleased she has taken this on and getting top quality information published … And we should remember that one previous contrarian claimed that research from Cohen and Francis supported the idea that there was no global warming, when it was and she and the vast majority of researchers continue to see the warming that is changing the system they are looking at. [snip] > [@watchwolf49](#): > > “Slower winds/faster winds” … did you just make that up or do you have another citation? … that’s why I wanted to read the actual paper … slower polar jet stream is exactly what I claim above about less average power in the atmosphere … faster zonal winds anywhere else doesn’t conserve energy … and this is your claim, not hers … For the first video I remembered what she mentioned: that slowing the jet stream does lead to the meanders between the zones to slow down, but fast winds are still present inside those meanders. Jennifer Francis - Understanding the Jetstream > [@](#): > > [Time at: 2:32] > It tends to meander more [The jet stream]. You see it on your weather maps and we also know that when it has this more meandering trajectory, the ways that we see in the jet stream, especially the large-scale waves; tend to not move very fast. > > So that’s the first effect the second effect that we hypothesized was this idea that if you take a contour of the 500 millibar height field, say this wave typical raspy wave or large-scale wave over North America here, and it worms because of Arctic amplification. if we warm the northern part of this wave more than the southern part of this wave then the 500 millibar heights in the ridges are going to increase more than they are in the troughs. So that means if you want to stay on this, say you’re walking along this height contour, and you want to stay on that height contour you’re actually going to have to go farther north to be at that same height. So the effect of this is that the waves the large-scale waves in the flow are actually getting stretched in the north-south direction. This is another factor that’s causing the way the flow to become more meandering. > > This is a little in animation of the actual jet stream this is created with real data by NASA’s science visual visualization laboratory and what you’re seeing here are little vectors showing what the winds are doing at something like 5 or 500 millibars or so; the colors indicate the wind speed so the red colors here are where the winds are faster, right now we’re looking down on the northern hemisphere down on the North Pole and what you can see is a typical sort of jet stream and circular encircling the entire northern hemisphere so as I put this in motion what you’re going to see is these waves in the jet stream that we’re all familiar with, and there are times when these waves are relatively low amplitude and we know that in this kind of a condition the storms tend to ride pretty quickly across the Northern Hemisphere. Now the thing to notice here is that the winds inside the envelope of the slow moving meander, as shown in the animation based on real data, can indeed be as fast as if the jet stream was not meandering around. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/45 "2018-08-17T05:23:11Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > Look, just what exactly is your level of knowledge of geology, palaeoclimatology or desert geomorphology, just so I know what level to pitch any further replies at. _Ahem_ **watchwolf49** , when you have a sec…? ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/46 "2018-08-17T12:13:27Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > … I found the paper late last night on the Not-so-Deep Web … [“Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes”](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051000) – Geophysical Research Letters – Mar 28th, 2012 … Good to see you admit that your previous pronouncements were bullshit – I refer to unmitigated bullshit like this: [Global warming won’t cause bad things to happen](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21144503&postcount=13) [so weather will be more moderated in a warmer world](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21145364&postcount=18) > [@watchwolf49](#): > > This seems to be the statement that’s got everyone’s knickers in a knot … but she fails to state how much … y’all are free to say 10,000%, I’m free to say 0.01% [The IPCC SREX] report finds it is virtually certain [99-100% probability] that the frequency and magnitude of extreme high temperatures will increase, with warm spells, including heat waves, very likely [\>90% probability] increasing in length, frequency, and/or intensity over most land areas. And it is not just temperature extremes that will change. Heavy precipitation events will likely [\>66% probability] increase in frequency, climate projections imply possible changes in floods, and there is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in some seasons and areas. > **[Insights](https://www.wri.org/insights)** > > Insights publishes articles on issues at the intersection of environment and international development. Through analysis, commentary and data-driven storytelling, WRI's leading experts highlight solutions for a sustainable future. [The IPCC report] says there is at least a two-in-three probability that weather extremes have already worsened because of man-made greenhouse gases. > **[Wild weather worsening due to climate change, IPCC confirms](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/01/climate-change-weather-ipcc)** > > Final draft of a report from the UN climate panel warns that weather extremes will come at a huge cost > [@watchwolf49](#): > > “Slower winds/faster winds” … did you just make that up or do you have another citation? … that’s why I wanted to read the actual paper … slower polar jet stream is exactly what I claim above about less average power in the atmosphere Bullshit, that’s not what you claimed. What you claimed was this: [_a reduction of winds means a reduction of power, so it is less likely for powerful events to occur, like longer drier droughts or hypercanes … so weather will be more moderated in a warmer world … less crop failures, less flooding, less human misery_](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21145364&postcount=18). Also, “power in the atmosphere” – from your quoted pontification – is scientifically incoherent; the global atmosphere doesn’t “contain” power, it contains _ **energy** _, which is why we speak of the earth’s energy budget and how greenhouse gases affect the balance of incoming and outgoing energy. Higher levels of energy generally tend to increase the power of dynamic climate processes like turbulent heat flux between the surface and the atmosphere, processes like convection, circulation, and latent heat flux which affects evaporation and rainfall. Arctic amplification is anomalous because it reduces temperature differentials between polar and more temperate regions, so its effect is to spread out and slow down the jet stream while other factors drive stronger storms and long-term precipitation changes. Hence the pretty much unanimous projections of stronger storms and more extreme weather, and the fact that we’re already seeing it. > [@MrDibble](#): > > Look, just what exactly is your level of knowledge of geology, palaeoclimatology or desert geomorphology, just so I know what level to pitch any further replies at. Since **watchwolf49** doesn’t seem inclined to respond, allow me to suggest that I think we know the answer. 🙂 There’s a good assessment [here](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21145914&postcount=23). ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/47 "2018-08-17T14:35:55Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Nice straw man [hurricanes], because the extreme events we were talking about there were about droughts and snow storms becoming more intense. Not hurricanes indeed. And it is clear that: yes you already did met Professor Francis before, and the medium where she shows the evidence is not as important as finding out that you do think that scientists using video are automatically disqualified from explaining what is going on … [snip] Granted … but you choose to participate in a dog-pile, you should expect to get gouged for something you didn’t post … Except: > [@GIGObuster](#): > > It seems that you did not read the article that was linked to, as it was the case with the cites made before of Jenifer Frances regarding the reality that while some wind circulation cells are slowing down in a warming world, others are increasing in speed, and also in places where the speed slows down it leads to weather patters that stick in place, **making things like hurricanes to become worse.** Emphasis mine [Hand wave] … still makes mine a strawman argument and I do apologize … HOWEVER: > [@GIGObuster](#): > > And you’ll need to read again, faster winds were also mentioned … [snip] > [@GIGObuster](#): > > [snip] … Also the point made that while some wind circulation cells will slow down, others will increase in speed in a warming world. Nah … neither the paper nor the two videos support this claim you’re making … nowhere does she say other circulation cell winds are increasing in speed, we can’t have more energy being delivered to the poles and have the poles be receiving less energy at the same time … conservation of energy and all … those that can explain this to you, won’t, who wants to get dog-piled on? … Yes, winds in the polar jet stream are fast … but Dr. Francis repeated states these winds are slowing down … contrary to what you seem to think she is saying … I think we’ve gone as far in this line of our discussion as we need to … **Mr Dibble** has asked for the dance so I promise to dance next with you when the band plays “Solar for Africa” … these links you’re providing are very interesting and I’d like to learn more … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/48 "2018-08-17T15:58:31Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Nah … neither the paper nor the two videos support this claim you’re making … nowhere does she say other circulation cell winds are increasing in speed, we can’t have more energy being delivered to the poles and have the poles be receiving less energy at the same time … conservation of energy and all … those that can explain this to you, won’t, who wants to get dog-piled on? … Hard to reply when at the same time there is a lot of nonsensical statements. I have to grant that that bit of the cells is not in the video, however I do remember seeing a source where it explained that while the circulation winds are slowing down the next cell closer to the equator was likely to increase in speed, again because of that conservation of energy. Will look around, but I can let that one go. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > Yes, winds in the polar jet stream are fast … but Dr. Francis repeated states these winds are slowing down … contrary to what you seem to think she is saying … Read it again, I’m not saying that the winds are not slowing down, only that since the meanders do slow down that does not mean that the winds inside of them will comply with your wishes. Strong wind and precipitation in an area it gets “stuck” will cause more damage than a storm with slightly faster winds and precipitation that does not linger. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > I think we’ve gone as far in this line of our discussion as we need to … **Mr Dibble** has asked for the dance so I promise to dance next with you when the band plays “Solar for Africa” … these links you’re providing are very interesting and I’d like to learn more … And that is the key anyhow, to learn more. After all, a lot of the evil that many think that they see on people that slow progress is in reality ignorance, not evil. (Again, it is actually good to seek better air quality for poor people, to see developing countries depending less on resources from the outside, and preventing more damage in the future with less global warming) ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/49 "2018-08-17T16:45:47Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > This is not true. Only 250 Ma, in the late Permian, the equatorial regions of Pangaea were [arid](http://www.saltworkconsultants.com/pangaean-climate.html)[desert](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730300-600-travel-back-in-time-to-the-most-extreme-desert-and-monsoons-ever/). Quarter billion years for your “gotcha” … you’re welcome to it … > [@MrDibble](#): > > Same way geographers do - 23.5°-35°- which is kind of irrelevant, since we’re talking about the equatorial region here, not the subtropics … [snip] Irrelevant in geology, how long does it take for a rock to move from the equator to 23.5º? … it takes about a week for air to move this far … > [@MrDibble](#): > > [snip] … Yes, it would, wouldn’t it … it’s pretty naive to think the atmospheric circulation is confined to neat cells either side of the equator. That’s certainly not the case with the East Asian monsoon today, and definitely wasn’t with the [Pangaean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangean_megamonsoon) [megamonsoon](https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~polsen/cpcp/parrish_93_sm.pdf)- characterized by cross-equatorial flow. You may want to learn the word “meridional”, it’ll come up a lot in this regard … [snap] When you posted this I checked, and the convergence zone was swung up north across the Sahara, thus pulling the Hadley Cell along with it … so meridional flow across the geographic equator is quite common … as we have Rossby waves along the polar convergence zone, so also we have tropical waves along the tropical convergence zone … > [@MrDibble](#): > > [snip] … By aeolian deposits … [snap] This actually answers my question, and thank you for this … I don’t think me winding through Wikipedia for the rest of what you posted will change my concession of this point … > [@MrDibble](#): > > Look, just what exactly is your level of knowledge of geology, palaeoclimatology or desert geomorphology, just so I know what level to pitch any further replies at. My questions to you geologic are sincere, I honestly do not know … rocks to my east last about an hour in a rock tumbler, rocks to the west about two … they’re just mush afterwards … so please use small words … From what direction do these aeolian deposits record the wind … is it strictly north/south (meridional), or is there and east/west component (zonal)? … > [@MrDibble](#): > > Are you seriously saying that just because the arbitrary, very, very granular Köppen classification of a place doesn’t change, that means the \*climate \*there hasn’t changed? That would be a laughable statement if it wasn’t so completely unbelievable that anyone would suggest it, so I’m assuming you actually meant something else. Care to elaborate? My apologies for not making myself clear … “Is it any good?”, this is not a rhetorical question, it should be the first question everybody asks … “hell, no”, this mean I don’t think it’s any good in _this_ context, thus I’ve asked for how we measure climate that demonstrates that it is changing … _Ahem_ **MrDibble** , when you have a sec…? > [@MrDibble](#): > > _Ahem_ **watchwolf49** , when you have a sec…? You now have my undivided attention … except for the attention my 4" paint brush demands … ===== The convective transfer of energy is when we give a molecule some energy, then move the molecule to some place else and release the energy … thus in convective circulation we’re required to intermix the molecules at the convergence/divergence boundaries so that the molecules can continue the journey from the equator to the poles … molecules with more energy are driven across these boundaries to places with less energy, molecules with less energy are driven across these boundaries to where energy is in surplus … 2nd Law and all … ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/50 "2018-08-17T17:05:46Z")
_Ahem_ **watchwolf49** , when you have a sec…? Perhaps you should consider that before anyone feels obliged to waste more time on your latest pontifications, you might want to address [post #46](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21152545&postcount=46) which establishes essentially that _ **you’ve been wrong about everything so far in this thread** _. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2018, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/51 "2018-08-17T20:57:08Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > Quarter billion years for your “gotcha” No, I believe my “gotcha” is _at least_ 1.75 billion years, since that’s the most charitable difference between your “billions of years now” and the truth. > [@](#): > > Irrelevant in geology, how long does it take for a rock to move from the equator to 23.5º? What the fuck does that have to do with, well, anything? We were discussing the equator, and the supposed lack of deserts there. What’s happening at some other arb line is completely irrelevant, now or in the Permian. I’ve heard of moving the goalposts, but 2608 km is a new record. > [@](#): > > When you posted this I checked, and the convergence zone was swung up north across the Sahara, thus pulling the Hadley Cell along with it That’s irrelevant to either of the monsoon circulations I mentioned, which don’t have anything to do with the Sahara. And it sounds like you only \*just \*learned the ITCZ shifts during the year. Please, _do_ tell us more about climate…[insert Gene Wilder Wonka meme here] > [@](#): > > From what direction do these aeolian deposits record the wind … is it strictly north/south (meridional), or is there and east/west component (zonal)? … Read my cites. > [@](#): > > My apologies for not making myself clear … “Is it any good?”, this is not a rhetorical question, it should be the first question everybody asks … “hell, no”, this mean I don’t think it’s any good in _this_ context, thus I’ve asked for how we measure climate that demonstrates that it is changing … > _Ahem_ **MrDibble** , when you have a sec…? I’m sorry, was there a question for me in there somewhere? One that wasn’t already addressed by other posts in this thread, I mean? And one that a brief perusal of the IPCC reports wouldn’t render unnecessary would be good, too. And dude, I love parentheses \*much \*more than is healthy, and even \*I \*would prefer you type more legibly. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/52 "2018-08-18T02:40:30Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > [snip] … I’m sorry, was there a question for me in there somewhere? … [snap] How do we measure climate that demonstrates that it is changing? … I have others on my dance card, I’m sorry you don’t like [the song the band is playing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz4W4YThKOc) {YouTube 31’35"}, perhaps later we can try again … ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/53 "2018-08-18T02:42:21Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > _Ahem_ **watchwolf49** , when you have a sec…? Perhaps you should consider that before anyone feels obliged to waste more time on your latest pontifications, you might want to address [post #46](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=21152545&postcount=46) which establishes essentially that _ **you’ve been wrong about everything so far in this thread** _. Thanks. I have you down right after **GIGO** … [shivers] … I feel like the Homecoming Queen at the Homecoming Dance … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/54 "2018-08-18T03:41:35Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > How do we measure climate that demonstrates that it is changing? … [http://www.npolar.no/en/themes/climate/climate-change/climate-change-measuring.html](http://www.npolar.no/en/themes/climate/climate-change/climate-change-measuring.html) > [@](#): > > How do we measure climate change? > > Several methods can be used to observe climate and climate change. Today’s scientists use sophisticated instruments and satellites to measure climate parameters. We can also look back through time by studying ice cores and sediment cores that provide indirect evidence about past temperatures and other climate conditions. Climate change is measured both globally and regionally. > > The most common climate observations are of temperature and precipitation. Other climate variables include humidity, wind speed and direction, air pressure, cloud cover and solar radiation. > > In polar regions, observed changes in sea ice, snow cover and glaciers also tell us what is happening with the climate. > [@](#): > > Ice sheets as climate archives > > Glacier ice, particularly the ice in the inland ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland, holds a treasure trove of information about climate in ancient times. The snow that once fell here contains information about ambient climate hundreds of millennia back in time. Tiny air bubbles trapped in the ice allow scientists to study how the composition of the atmosphere has changed with temperature over time. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > I have others on my dance card, I’m sorry you don’t like [the song the band is playing](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz4W4YThKOc) {YouTube 31’35"}, perhaps later we can try again … [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/Z0Z69oAjNLQ/maxresdefault.jpg "Social Good Summit 2017: Bob Weir") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0Z69oAjNLQ) Bob Weir speaks on Climate Change and our Future at Social Good Summit 2017 > [@](#): > > Well, [by] in 2030 I’d like to see global warming and environmental degradation arrested, and hand in hand I’d like to see social justice to be a normal consideration for all people. - Bob Weir - American musician and songwriter best known as a founding member of the rock band Grateful Dead. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/55 "2018-08-18T06:49:57Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > How do we measure climate that demonstrates that it is changing? … > [@MrDibble](#): > > One that wasn’t already addressed by other posts in this thread, I mean? And one that a brief perusal of the IPCC reports wouldn’t render unnecessary would be good, too. Like so: > [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > “Climate” is a fuzzy word with a lot of meaning attached. How about we measure things that actually matter? Like average global temperatures? Or average local temperatures? Or sea level rise? Or average ocean temperatures? Or hurricane wind speeds over time? All of these things matter. These are all metrics that clearly matter. and others. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 8:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/56 "2018-08-18T08:02:48Z")
Right? I don’t particularly care if the city I’m in is classified as “tropic” or “sub-tropic”. That’s a label that doesn’t actually _mean_ anything to me because of how vague and fuzzy it is. What I care about is whether I can survive without air conditioning, or whether I’m going to die of heatstroke if I try. What I care about is whether or not the beachfront property I own is going to be “beachfront” or “underwater” in a few decades. What I care about is whether a mosquito bite is a temporary annoyance or [a potentially lethal threat](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mosquito-borne-diseases-on-the-uptick-thanks-to-global-warming/). These are all fairly easily measured. These are all things we can predict. These are all _real metrics_. And they’re all tied to global warming. **watchwolf49** , do you care about any of these things? If so, why would you even bring up those “climate categories” that _nobody involved in climatology actually cares about_? ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/57 "2018-08-18T17:09:47Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > [The Race to Solar-Power Africa | The New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/06/26/the-race-to-solar-power-africa) > [@GIGObuster](#): > > [Can Cleaner Cooking and Solar Power Help Solve Energy Poverty in Africa? [Slide Show] | Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solving-energy-poverty-in-africa-and-the-world/) > > [Solar power: cheap energy source for Africa | Africa Renewal](https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/october-2006/solar-power-cheap-energy-source-africa) I’d like to start this conversation with you agreeing to a stipulation … the 2006 article speaks to “hundreds of people”, in 2012 we have “thousands of people” and the 2017 article has “10’s of thousands of people” … so it seems to me it’s fair to assess these programs talked about in these articles as affecting 100’s of thousands of people … maybe not today but in rather short order this will be true … These are still tiny tiny numbers compared to the problem at hand … 1] The _New Yorker_ touches upon my biggest concern … we’re bringing financial resources to address this problem in places that are effectively un-moneyed … no paying jobs, no grocery stores, no shopping malls … these are sustenance farmers who can only eat the food they themselves can grow and they have to make any tools they need with the materials at hand … for somebody cutting firewood with a stone axe, those steel supports for the solar panels look awful inviting … Although the novel was fiction, the symbolism rings true … the entire village had to pool their money to buy a single car, which is parked 7 miles away along the closest road … there are utility poles every hundred feet along the footpath, without wire, as no matter how much can be strung during the day, it’s all torn down and scrapped at night … this is juxtaposed with the Drug Lord gang coming into the village and carting off all the pretty 12-year-old girls … a situation not unlike northern Nigeria today … we bring a specific type of wealth into places where there is no wealth … Electric light at night is nice but the people need clean water, police force and all-weather roads … and maybe some hand soap … Rich guy from the Big City offers a each villager ten year’s income for their community solar panels … everybody profits … 2] I’m appalled that anyone sitting in an air conditioned house in Western Europe/Anglo-America (WE/AA) would bitch about South Africa’s carbon load on the atmosphere … “Honey, run across town and pick me up a bobbin … oh and hate on South Africa for burning a little coal would ya?” … here’s the image of [The Earth at Night [2000]](https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap001127.html), this pin-points who’s causing the pollution, these folks need to clean up their act FIRST before they whine and bitch at the others … Now, WE/AA made huge mistakes though ignorance these past 100 years, and are working hard to mitigate these mistakes … South Africans know this, they see the mistakes we made and they’re going to try and not make the same mistakes … I think they need to be removed from the emission control discussions, trust them to make the right decisions on their own … with what they’ve done these past few decades, I think they’re worthy of this trust, as if that matters to them and I wouldn’t blame them if they didn’t give a rat’s ass if we trust them or not … I also think these other impoverished and non-polluting areas should get the same hand-wave … Indo-China, The Congo, Australia, Outer Mongolia … these folks are just as smart as WE/AA … they’ll do the right thing … 3] The articles discuss some of the problems that are being seen with these programs, but they’re only using successes as examples … are we to assume they’ve experienced no failures? … or do descriptions of these failures sell less magazines? … what about cell phone chargers in Mauritania or the South Sudan refugee camps … this is millions of people and still less than 1% of the problem … ===== These are serious issues, but this is a web-site dedicated to the humorous side of things: A] “African countries, blessed with sunlight all year round” … okay … ummmm … I guess that is a blessing, damn lucky aren’t they? … B] It takes some deciphering but the solar panels for the miller is for just the lights, so he can mill more grain at night … because even a small household flour mill draws 1000W … looks like $100 for a “plug-and-play” system to run this mill on Amazon … for this kind of money, the people can eat cake … C] Passive solar hot water heaters work great, no electricity … paint a 5-gallon bucket black, insert water, set out in sun … warm enough to wash hands and butts with … too cold outside, then you’re heating your home so try inside … ===== What makes me hopeful with these articles is that, at the same time, WE/AA are working to make the affluent lifestyle less energy dependent … as Africa ramps up it’s “carbon-free” energy production, far more efficient appliances are becoming available … these two forces will meet in the middle and we’ll have everybody living a cleaner and better life … my mother remembers when she was 8-years-old when REC came and installed _a single electric outlet_ in the home … huge improvement on her family’s standard of living … grandma had an _electric_ sewing machine to sew flour sacks together for mom’s school clothes … within a few years they had money to buy her shoes for church … that’s all I’m asking for here, just a little carbon load, just to give folks a start … is it really too much of a burden to ditch your A/C? … ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/58 "2018-08-18T17:12:18Z")
After **GIGO** and **wolfpup** I’m going to have to sit down a spell … a misogynist invent pumps … they are NOT good for dancing … then **Budget** and **MrDibble** if he promises to stop trying to step on my feet, the fist-fighting is behind the gym in case you didn’t know … ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2018, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/59 "2018-08-18T20:02:19Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > I’d like to start this conversation with you agreeing to a stipulation … the 2006 article speaks to “hundreds of people”, in 2012 we have “thousands of people” and the 2017 article has “10’s of thousands of people” … so it seems to me it’s fair to assess these programs talked about in these articles as affecting 100’s of thousands of people … maybe not today but in rather short order this will be true … > > These are still tiny tiny numbers compared to the problem at hand … > > 1] The _New Yorker_ touches upon my biggest concern … we’re bringing financial resources to address this problem in places that are effectively un-moneyed … no paying jobs, no grocery stores, no shopping malls … these are sustenance farmers who can only eat the food they themselves can grow and they have to make any tools they need with the materials at hand … for somebody cutting firewood with a stone axe, those steel supports for the solar panels look awful inviting … Creating an issue that id not there just make a “but what about?” silly argument. So the rest has a lot of your post snipped from a lot of silly padding: > [@watchwolf49](#): > > 2] I’m appalled that anyone sitting in an air conditioned house in Western Europe/Anglo-America (WE/AA) would bitch about South Africa’s carbon load on the atmosphere … “Honey, run across town and pick me up a bobbin … oh and hate on South Africa for burning a little coal would ya?” … here’s the image of [The Earth at Night [2000]](https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap001127.html), this pin-points who’s causing the pollution, these folks need to clean up their act FIRST before they whine and bitch at the others … Here in Arizona: [https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=AZ](https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=AZ) > [@](#): > > [ul] > [li]Arizona’s Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, rated at 3,937 net megawatts, is the largest nuclear power plant, the largest net generator of electricity, and the second-largest power plant by capacity of any kind in the nation. [/li][li]In 2016, two-fifths of Arizona’s renewable electricity generation came from solar energy. The state ranked second in the nation in utility-scale electricity generation from solar energy and third in generation from distributed (customer-sited, small-scale) solar resources.[/li][/ul] > [@watchwolf49](#): > > 3] The articles discuss some of the problems that are being seen with these programs, but they’re only using successes as examples … are we to assume they’ve experienced no failures? … or do descriptions of these failures sell less magazines? … what about cell phone chargers in Mauritania or the South Sudan refugee camps … this is millions of people and still less than 1% of the problem … Not doing your homework, or in other words: you need to make your point yourself. Or like I did when there I could not pinpoint the comment of the cell circulation speed, give up the point because no cite is available to counter the good efforts going on in Africa. > [@watchwolf49](#): > > What makes me hopeful with these articles is that, at the same time, WE/AA are working to make the affluent lifestyle less energy dependent … as Africa ramps up it’s “carbon-free” energy production, far more efficient appliances are becoming available … these two forces will meet in the middle and we’ll have everybody living a cleaner and better life … my mother remembers when she was 8-years-old when REC came and installed _a single electric outlet_ in the home … huge improvement on her family’s standard of living … grandma had an _electric_ sewing machine to sew flour sacks together for mom’s school clothes … within a few years they had money to buy her shoes for church … that’s all I’m asking for here, just a little carbon load, just to give folks a start … is it really too much of a burden to ditch your A/C? … “The man who says it can’t be done\* is constantly being interrupted by somebody doing it.” \*With less or without carbon dumped into the atmosphere. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2018, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484/60 "2018-08-19T03:11:24Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Creating an issue that id not there just make a “but what about?” silly argument. So the rest has a lot of your post snipped from a lot of silly padding: Unwilling to debate … noted … > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Here in Arizona: > > [https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=AZ](https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=AZ) That plant is located in the dark areas of the map … if those folks want to yell at the 1 billion people without electricity … okay, they won’t hear, no electricity … go to the light areas, them folks should clean up their act … > [@GIGObuster](#): > > Not doing your homework, or in other words: you need to make your point yourself. Or like I did when there I could not pinpoint the comment of the cell circulation speed, give up the point because no cite is available to counter the good efforts going on in Africa. [“Examples of Failed Aid-Funded Projects in Africa”](http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22380448/ns/world_news-africa/t/examples-failed-aid-funded-projects-africa/#.W3jcBH4h0S4) — NBC News — Dec 23rd, 2007 [“Boreholes and wells (developing community water sources)”](http://calleam.com/WTPF/?p=8390) — International Donor Agencies – Africa — (Catalogue of Catastrophe) — July 2016 > [@GIGObuster](#): > > “The man who says it can’t be done\* is constantly being interrupted by somebody doing it.” 20,000 down … 999,980,000 to go … and no diesel generators until then? … callous … [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-this-scenario-global-warming-at-4c/819484.md?page=4)