# How likely is US military intervention in Cuba? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 7, 2026, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442 "2026-01-07T19:46:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/1 "2026-01-07T19:46:57Z")
Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated this week on “Meet the Press” that, after Venezuela, Cuba might be the Trump administration’s next target. Cuba has a close long-term alliance with Russia. And – even amid a severe economic crisis – its regime is likely more resilient than Venezuela’s proved to be. Are those factors enough to discourage this White House from intervening in Cuba? ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/2 "2026-01-07T19:51:05Z")
The current administration seems to think the United States is free to do what it likes in its sphere of influence, while Russia is free to do so in its (which includes Ukraine) and China in its (which includes Taiwan). So the administration may expect Russia to do nothing if the US government attempts regime change in Havana. ---
**Author:** ![ricepad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b38774/32.png) [@ricepad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ricepad)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/3 "2026-01-07T19:58:46Z")
I wouldn’t count it out, especially if Rubio has any say, but Cuba may be safe because it doesn’t have oil or any other resources Trump wants to steal. ---
**Author:** ![BippityBoppityBoo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bippityboppityboo/32/5745_2.png) [@BippityBoppityBoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BippityBoppityBoo)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/4 "2026-01-07T20:00:30Z")
> [@ricepad](#): > > Cuba may be safe because it doesn’t have oil or any other resources Trump wants to steal. This. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/5 "2026-01-07T20:13:28Z")
> [@ricepad](#): > > Cuba may be safe because it doesn’t have oil or any other resources Trump wants to steal. Wait until the price of sugar goes up. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/6 "2026-01-07T20:23:37Z")
RFK is banning sugar. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/7 "2026-01-07T20:27:07Z")
Cuba would be a welfare liability. There might be some strategic or flag-waving benefit to controlling it after opposing the Castros for 66 years (or so). It might make some fairly influential Republican Cuban-Americans happy if they got their ancestral estates back, but not if they would be expected to employ or take care of any of the current population of those areas. To me, the balance sheet appears to say Not Likely. > [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > RFK is banning sugar. Wouldn’t he be more likely to ban sugar substitutes first? ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/8 "2026-01-07T20:31:09Z")
I exaggerate . . . but only a little, [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/DvbuzBFye7M/maxresdefault.jpg ""Today our government declares war on added sugar."") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvbuzBFye7M) ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/9 "2026-01-07T20:48:41Z")
That just gives TFG more pretext to invade Cuba. We’ll begin by murdering dangerous sugar-smugglers and TFG or RFK will tell us for each boat full of people we murder, 25,000 American lives are saved. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/10 "2026-01-07T21:00:14Z")
Cuba might not have much oil, but it has prime seafront property. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2026, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/11 "2026-01-07T22:09:45Z")
Cuba dared to defy us and has never been properly punished with mass slaughter and devastation. We’ll attack it sooner or later, the only question is when. Not out of any desire to profit, but just to slaughter them and drop bombs, then install a pet dictator to torment them for a few decades. I suspect Greenland will be first though since it looks bigger on a map, which strokes Trump’s ego. Then either Cuba for anger or Panama for greed. Then it’s a tossup between Canada and Mexico. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2026, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/12 "2026-01-08T01:59:15Z")
He wants to reestablish, and then bankrupt, the Mob’s old casinos. ---
**Author:** ![ricepad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b38774/32.png) [@ricepad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ricepad)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2026, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/13 "2026-01-08T02:06:20Z")
Well, when you have a business plan that works…. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2026, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/14 "2026-01-08T02:44:29Z")
> [@Chad\_Sudan](#): > > Cuba might not have much oil, but it has prime seafront property. ^ This and… > [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > He wants to reestablish, and then bankrupt, the Mob’s old casinos. ^ This. Plus it is close at hand and DJT likely imagines it will help his popularity with the masses. And imagine all the beautiful Trump Hotels he could build. ---
**Author:** ![yendis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ed8c4c/32.png) [@yendis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yendis)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2026, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/15 "2026-01-08T10:43:32Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > And imagine all the beautiful Trump Hotels he could build. Hotels that require armored convoys to get guests to and from the heavily fortified airport. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2026, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/16 "2026-01-08T14:25:59Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > > [@ricepad](#): > > > > Cuba may be safe because it doesn’t have oil or any other resources Trump wants to steal. > > Wait until the price of sugar goes up. The Fanjul family would like that. The U.S. doesn’t get any sugarcane from Cuba. If anything opening up that market would lower the price. The Fanjul’s control most production in the U.S. and would love to see the price go up. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 8:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/17 "2026-09-26T08:58:11Z")
After most of this year speculating, it looks like the chickens have come home to roost, the other shoe has dropped, and the cat’s out of the bag. This week: The Army Reserve has asked its commanders whether military police, medics and other support units could be made available as soon as late December to back potential military action aimed at Cuba… > **[US Army Reserve asks whether units can be ready in as little as 3 months for...](https://nypost.com/2026/09/25/us-news/us-army-reserve-asks-whether-units-can-be-ready-in-as-little-as-3-months-for-cuba-action-report/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqDwgAKgcICjCEr4sCMPjJLDDOqrYF&utm_content=rundown)** > > An internal Army message reviewed by CBS News sought feedback about the status of forces which would be “possibly needed in 90-120 days.” ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/18 "2026-09-26T12:50:10Z")
Here’s the CBS News story: [U.S. military lays groundwork for potential action around Cuba](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-groundwork-potential-action-cuba-trump/) > [@](#): > > CBS News is withholding certain details from publication that could potentially put U.S. service members at risk. . . . > > In New York, Mr. Trump told the U.N. General Assembly that his administration was seeking a “fundamental change” on the island and predicted Cuba’s communist government “will fall” and declared that “freedom will be coming to Cuba.” The Cuban delegation [walked out](https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1DSL9V7hhh/) during his remarks. So – the leak isn’t much more than Trump is saying himself. While I’m all on the side of the leakers, I doubt the leak reduced the likelihood of DJT ordering invasion. What could CBS News have withheld? Names of specific units? Or maybe it was something minor, just so the reporters could claim to Bari Weiss that they hadn’t gone all out. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/19 "2026-09-26T12:57:18Z")
This is just the break the Corleone family has been waiting for since 1959. ---
**Author:** ![scudsucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scudsucker/32/14101_2.png) [@scudsucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scudsucker)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/20 "2026-09-26T16:54:07Z")
I have a suggestion for the Trump regime: why not relive history and go in through this little access point? [![](https://i.ibb.co/PLd1ty6/bay-of-pigs.png) ](https://i.ibb.co/PLd1ty6/bay-of-pigs.png) (sorry, I don’t own a sharpie, but he’ll get the idea, if not the point.) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442.md?page=2)