# How likely is US military intervention in Cuba? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 7, 2026, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442 "2026-01-07T19:46:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/41 "2026-09-29T02:19:26Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > My guess- not gonna happen, at least boots on the ground. Maybe a strict naval blockade? I’m reading that Cuba imports 70 percent of its food, or at least used to: [Foreign Policy Association](https://fpa.org/cutting-food-imports-in-hardship/) A strict blockade would take years to achieve regime change. And I don’t know if even the Trumpers would have the stomach for it. Cuban Americans would not like a policy of starving them out. Trump is casualty adverse. But he also is long-war-adverse. If he wants to conquer Cuba, he’ll have to pick his poison. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/42 "2026-09-29T02:29:43Z")
Here’s a reason Trump will not initiate a strict blockage of Cuba: [United Press](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/28/latam-cuba-us-top-sup-plier/9541790616056/) > [@](#): > > The United States became Cuba’s largest supplier of goods during the first seven months of 2026 despite heightened political tensions with Havana. > > Shipments to the island reached a record $674 million between January and July, according to official [U.S. Census Bureau data](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2390.html). The volume put the United States ahead of Cuba’s traditional trading partners, including Spain and China. So there are at least two of Trump’s constituencies that would be against a real blockade – Cuban Americans, and U.S. farmers. As for a partial blockage, it would take far longer to work. Even Trump would see that. I do not see how Trump can hope to achieve his aims in Cuba without U.S. troops. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/43 "2026-09-29T03:31:24Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > So there are at least two of Trump’s constituencies that would be against a real blockade – Cuban Americans, and U.S. farmers. US farmers are already pissed off. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I do not see how Trump can hope to achieve his aims in Cuba without U.S. troops. Then, it will not happen, and what- exactly- are those “aims”? Since i doubt if he really knows. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/44 "2026-09-29T04:47:37Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > US farmers are already pissed off. But is there any evidence that they will ever vote against the Republican party? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/45 "2026-09-29T17:39:58Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Then, it will not happen, and what- exactly- are those “aims”? On Saturday, Trump said [“We want to open Cuba up to our people.”](https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/trump-predicts-cuba-and-us-will-make-a-deal/) That means businesspeople. I’m guessing the Trump organization for tourism and maybe a U.S. big-tobacco stake in cigars, that being AFAIK Cuba’s biggest export. I speculate that he would like to see a right wing regime that flatters himself, as in El Salvador. ---
**Author:** ![ricepad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b38774/32.png) [@ricepad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ricepad)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/46 "2026-09-29T17:43:46Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump said [“We want to open Cuba up to our people.”](https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/trump-predicts-cuba-and-us-will-make-a-deal/) That means businesspeople. More specifically, his cronies and stooges. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/47 "2026-09-29T18:15:07Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > On Saturday, Trump said [“We want to open Cuba up to our people.”](https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/trump-predicts-cuba-and-us-will-make-a-deal/) That means businesspeople. I’m guessing the Trump organization for tourism and maybe a U.S. big-tobacco stake in cigars, that being AFAIK Cuba’s biggest export. > President Donald Trump predicted on Saturday that the US and Cuba will reach an agreement and that he does not think military action will be necessary. > > “I would say that Cuba and us will make a deal. I don’t think we’ll need the military,” Trump told reporters at the White House. > > The Trump administration has openly stated that its goal is to change Cuba‘s government. A US-imposed oil blockade implemented earlier this year has put the country under severe strain as it contends with fuel shortages and blackouts exacerbated by failing infrastructure. yep, cigars are #1, followed by Zinc, lead, nickel, and Rum. It shows the failure of a communist regime that Cuba has to import food. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/48 "2026-09-29T18:31:44Z")
The stupid thing is Trump’s claim that he wants “to open Cuba up to our people.” That’s entirely on the US government; I think we’re the only country that Cuba doesn’t trade with. I wonder if the Castro regime would have lasted as long as it has _without_ the US embargo. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/49 "2026-09-29T19:00:16Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > That’s entirely on the US government; I think we’re the only country that Cuba doesn’t trade with. I previously posted a link showing that the U.S. has become the biggest exporter of goods purchased by Cuba. However, there are big recent year-to-year changes, so you can find contrary links. By Trump’s mercantilist principles, he should love Cuba just as it is now because the U.S. has a big trade surplus (we sell them food but refuse to buy their exports). ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442/50 "2026-09-29T19:43:56Z")
This … _cannot_ be helping the Cubans or their agriculture/food supply situation: > **[After Blocking Fuel, the US Turns to Cuba’s Food Supply](https://progressive.international/wire/2026-09-07-after-blocking-fuel-the-us-turns-to-cubas-food-supply/en/)** > > The U.S. is tightening sanctions on Cuba's food import and port infrastructure, using hunger as leverage to force regime change while maintaining its own monopoly over Cuban agricultural trade. > [@](#): > > Cuba’s right to grow, process, and eat its own food is under siege. > > In July, the US State Department announced a round of broad economic sanctions against Cuba targeting industries that have historically been spared, limiting the Cuban government’s ability to purchase agricultural commodities and food processing equipment from third countries by singling out Cuba’s state importer (GECOMEX) and port operator (GEMAR). > > This is happening in the context of America’s monthslong oil blockade against Cuba, which has already immiserated the general population by impeding basic sanitation and food safety and has killed scores of patients in Cuban hospitals. A US congressional delegation that visited in early July described the situation on the ground as a “silent Gaza.” Lovely. Yea, us!!! So, we’re either starving them out for some TBD self-interest play, or … y’know … just for sport. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-likely-is-us-military-intervention-in-cuba/1026442.md?page=2)