# How Liz Cheney can hold her seat **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 7, 2021, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554 "2021-05-07T00:04:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/101 "2021-05-12T12:22:33Z")
OK, let’s drop this exchange here, with my final note about one point you state unequivocally: “Having Liz Cheney in the House with “D” by her name does not in and of itself do actually do Democrats any good. It’s only useful for them if Cheney actually votes with them.” YES, it does do the Dems good, all by itself. Caucusing with the Dems makes for one more D and one fewer R in the House, which means the GOP will have to find a different D district to turn into an R district. Even if Cheney NEVER votes Pelosi’s way (she did 7% of the time in the last Congress) that’s an advantage for the Dems, and an irritant for the Rs. You seem to have great difficulty grasping this simple point (is that a personal attack too? Glad you’re not modding) so I’ll repeat it once more for your benefit. You can go on ignoring it, of course. An added side-benefit to this from Pelosi’s point of view is that it would add to her rhetoric about the Dems being the party, not of liberalism, but of sanity and reality, and the GOP being the party of lies, cultism, and looniness. She could legitimately claim that the Dems welcome anyone who holds rational positions, even someone as far to the right as Liz Cheney, and that it is a big tent party that treats its minority members with respect, however much they disagree with many of her policies. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/102 "2021-05-12T12:34:55Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > Caucusing with the Dems makes for one more D and one fewer R in the House You realize that only helps the Democrats if she actually votes for Pelosi? Saying she will caucus with the Dems doesn’t mean anything. The only things that matter are votes. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/103 "2021-05-12T13:50:27Z")
This. The House isn’t the Senate, where the Majority Leader is selected in caucus. The Speaker is elected by the whole House, and it doesn’t matter who you caucus with. All that matters is who you vote for. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/104 "2021-05-12T14:49:50Z")
The OP hasn’t exhibited _any_ understanding of the difference between the Senate and the House in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/105 "2021-05-12T14:54:20Z")
It’s actually worse than that. Even in the Senate, the fact that there _is_ a Majority Leader is determined by a _vote_ of the _whole_ Senate. Each Congress opens with an Organizing Resolution that sets up the rules for how the Senate operates. There’s no actual requirement that a “Democratic” Senator vote for the Democratic Organizing Resolution. We actually saw this process in action this year, as the 50/50 Senate resulted in negotiations for power sharing. Technically, the Democrats could have rammed through an Organizing Resolution that gave them the Majority, with the VP as a tie-breaker. But traditionally 50/50 splits result in an Organizing Resolution that’s friendlier to the “minority”. Now, having a Republican switch parties before an election and publicly vow to vote for the Democratic Organizing Resolution if elected, provided the Democrats actually got at least 50 seats, would actually be useful to the Democrats. But that only motivates voters if that deal is public. If Liz Cheney campaigns in 2020 as a Democrat, with a _public_ pledge to vote for a Democratic Organizing Resolution in the House and for whoever the majority of the Democratic caucus votes for as Speaker, that deal actually does make some sense for the Democrats. But it’s only a motivation for Democratic primary voters and Democrats in the general election if that deal is _public_. But a public deal like also probably costs her significant support among never-Trumpers and “sane” Republicans who are, after all, still Republicans. And it still probably leads to a lot of voter apathy among Democrats, many of whom just may not show up to vote if their choice is between Cheney and a Trumper. I still don’t think that deal makes much sense for Liz Cheney. Running in a crowded Republican primary, aiming for a plurality, and counting on the support of never-Trumpers, rational Republicans, strategic cross-primary Democratic voters, incumbency, and electoral inertia still seems like a much better chance for her, _without_ the political costs of a public party switch. The same for a run as a principled conservative Independent in the general. ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/106 "2021-05-12T16:44:28Z")
If there are more Rs than Ds in the House, then McCarthy controls the agenda, and if there are more Ds than Rs, Pelosi does. Underlying this deal is that of course Cheney will support Pelosi for Speaker. What, she’s going to support the people who kicked her out? The whole point of making this (odious) deal from her POV is that she will no longer vote for any R as Speaker. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/107 "2021-05-12T17:28:07Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Certainly a fair point that most of the examples of “successful” party switching occurred at least 20-30 years ago, and mostly involve conservative Southern Democrats simply recognizing the realignment of the region behind the GOP. There have been some other examples – Lincoln Chafee was elected to the Senate as a Republican in Rhode Island then elected Governor as a Democratic-leaning Independent. But I think you’re right that the parties are so consolidated now that party switchers end up with no home – e.g. Arlen Specter. > > And the kind of mercenary party switching posited by the OP would be nearly impossible to pull off. Democratic donors and activists would revolt if Liz Cheney were admitted to the caucus. As @LSLGuy and @JRDelirious point out, if it comes down to a nearly-tied House, there are dozens of Reps who are more closely ideologically aligned with the other party who would be better targets for party switching. This. There’s a difference between the people mentioned earlier switching parties as part of a political realignment (Phil Gramm, Richard Shelby, the old school southern Democrats in general) vs. someone like Arlen Specter who had likely would have lost a primary and no longer fit in. The latter type of party change almost always signals the end of a political career, and I’m sure Liz Cheney knows that. IMHO what’s shocking about this particular political realignment is how fast it happened. At this point it’s obvious that today’s Republican Party is not the same Republican Party of GWB, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. I think, however, that it’s not even the same party that elected Trump in 2016 and that lost the 2018 midterms. This current party seems to have been born some time within the last 1 to 1 1/2 years, along with the simultaneous death of the prior version of the Republican Party. I’m not sure exactly how it happened so quickly and what triggered it, but that’s the conclusion I draw from the available evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2021, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/108 "2021-05-12T17:54:18Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > The whole point of making this (odious) deal from her POV is that she will no longer vote for any R as Speaker. But she also couldn’t vote for any current D (especially Pelosi) and be true to her principles. Of course if she votes for Pelosi she’ll never be electable in WY again. ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/109 "2021-05-13T12:37:56Z")
Most likely (much better than 50/50 chance) she is unelectable in WY ever again, no matter what she does. My idea is to have her speaking against the Rs who kicked her to the curb and speaking out most forcefully against them, which joining the Dems would definitely help her accomplish. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/110 "2021-05-13T12:41:35Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > My idea is to have her speaking against the Rs who kicked her to the curb and speaking out most forcefully against them, which joining the Dems would definitely help her accomplish. Speaking against the Republicans by repudiating every core value she has based her career on and joining with the Democrats. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/111 "2021-05-13T12:47:30Z")
I don’t really see how voting 98% of the way she voted as an R is “repudiating every core value she has based her career on.” ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/112 "2021-05-13T12:51:30Z")
Pelosi welcoming her into the Democratic fold is just making the point that the Dems have a great toleration for various points of view, all based on the facts and the real world, and that the GOP mandates that their members all proclaim in public their batshit-craziness. I think that’s what they need to run on for a few cycles: “They’re crazy, and we’re not, whatever you make of some of our policies–heck, we don’t even agree with each other on all major issues, but we’re not chewing up the carpet and frothing at the mouth.” And for Cheney, it can be as simple as “Fuck me? Oh, no, my friends, fuck you.” ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/113 "2021-05-13T13:59:55Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > My idea is to have her speaking against the Rs who kicked her to the curb and speaking out most forcefully against them Which she’s prevented from spending the next year and a half doing… how? She’ll be even _freer_ to speak her mind if she’s not tied in to trying to “hold her seat”, and after 2023 has a prime-time show on which to skewer the Trumpians. Threre seems to be a flaw in the presuppositon here: Given that Liz Cheney does not work for the sake of what _you_ or I want, what if **she** _does not care to “hold her seat”_ for that price? ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/114 "2021-05-13T15:32:11Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > I don’t really see how voting 98% of the way she voted as an R is “repudiating every core value she has based her career on.” It’s the 2% of the time that causes issues, or put another way: You fuck one goat…\* \* For those who don’t know the joke, this is not an insult to Roger\_That. If you need it explained, I’ll happily do so. ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/115 "2021-05-13T16:46:57Z")
Hey, my sexual preferences have nothing to do with this!! And how did you find out about that, anyway? Actually, I think she voted with Trump 93% of the time, which (I think) means she voted with Pelosi 7% of the time, if it’s a binary kind of thing. ---
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/116 "2021-05-13T20:16:21Z")
> [@Roger\_That](#): > > Actually, I think she voted with Trump 93% of the time, which (I think) means she voted with Pelosi 7% of the time, if it’s a binary kind of thing. It’s not. At all. I don’t want to be a jerk, but I’m really having trouble understanding how you think all of this works. Each individual member of the House votes as an individual. On average, a Democrat will probably vote with any given Democrat more often than they will with any given Republican. But, even in this highly partisan day and age, an individual Democrat and an individual Republicans can find themselves on the same side of a bill. [Pelosi voted in line with Trump’s stated position 17.6% of the time.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/nancy-pelosi/) ---
**Author:** ![Roger\_That](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roger_that/32/8505_2.png) [@Roger\_That](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roger_That)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/117 "2021-05-13T22:03:30Z")
You’re having trouble understanding how I think all this works? But you’re not having any trouble at all understanding Telemark’s absurd overstated assertion that Cheney’s > [@Telemark](#): > > Speaking against the Republicans [amounts to]repudiating every core value she has based her career ? I understand perfectly how the House works, and what a Representive’s vote signifies and what it does not signify. I am finding it sort of funny that you’re professing to be baffled. ---
**Author:** ![gdave](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gdave/32/3683_2.png) [@gdave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gdave)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/118 "2021-05-13T22:24:50Z")
I’m not “professing” to be baffled. I am baffled. You say, > [@Roger\_That](#): > > I understand perfectly how the House works, and what a Representive’s vote signifies and what it does not signify. Yet you also say, > [@Roger\_That](#): > > I think she voted with Trump 93% of the time, which (I think) means she voted with Pelosi 7% of the time, if it’s a binary kind of thing. As I noted, it’s not “a binary kind of thing”, and I’m having trouble understanding why you would think it is. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2021, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/119 "2021-05-13T23:16:10Z")
**Modnote** : Please do not change quoted user posts at all. The [brackets] are not sufficient by SDMB standards. Do not do this again. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 15, 2021, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554/120 "2021-05-15T01:31:02Z")
In 2020 Liz Cheney voted for Donald Trump to be the President of The United States. Afford her all of the sympathy she deserves. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-liz-cheney-can-hold-her-seat/941554.md?page=5)