# How Long Can May Last??? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 9, 2018, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581 "2018-07-09T16:16:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 7:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/41 "2018-07-11T07:35:17Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > I’m not exactly happy about leaving the EU, but we will have to make it work. So we will make it work. Indeed. The Great British Public has voted decisively for a decade of pain, sorrow and constant national humiliation, and we jolly well insist on getting it! ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 8:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/42 "2018-07-11T08:26:07Z")
> [@Sandwich](#): > > Indeed. The Great British Public has voted decisively for a decade of pain, sorrow and constant national humiliation, and we jolly well insist on getting it! Those to whom I spoke thought it would be about 3 years. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/43 "2018-07-11T14:39:38Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > There are over 7 billion people outside the EU versus the 500 million or so in the EU. That’s a vastly larger market. Sure, but you’ve got that now. It’s not like if you’re a member of the EU you’re told you can’t trade outside the EU. Any business in an EU country can trade with the rest of the world. But, British firms don’t have guaranteed access to those markets outside the EU. Britain either has to negotiate free trade agreements on an individual basis, or just rely on the WTO, but that is not the same as an open market, like the EU is. And you certainly don’t have free labour mobility for your citizens the way you have now. So you lose the guaranteed access to a market of half a billion people. You lose free labour mobility for all your citizens to that market of half a billion people. And you get what, exactly, in return for giving up those two huge economic benefits? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/44 "2018-07-11T14:58:19Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Sure, but you’ve got that now. No we don’t. We’re restrained by the EU. Subject to the EU’s rules, restrictions, and trade agreements. An independent UK will be able to make its own treaties, its own rules, and its own way. (Well, we’ll have to… :)) ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/45 "2018-07-11T15:47:57Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > No we don’t. We’re restrained by the EU. Subject to the EU’s rules, restrictions, and trade agreements. An independent UK will be able to make its own treaties, its own rules, and its own way. (Well, we’ll have to… :)) We will still be restrained as the Government commits to aligning with EU regulations to ensure as smooth as possible trade with the EU; except now we will have no voice in the framing of those regulations. Hell, 95% of the time, we’re not ‘restrained’ at all, because the UK supported those regulations in the first place! We’re going to lose sovereignty. ---
**Author:** ![Knight\_Of\_Few\_Words](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/f475e1/32.png) [@Knight\_Of\_Few\_Words](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knight_Of_Few_Words)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/46 "2018-07-11T16:46:59Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > No we don’t. We’re restrained by the EU. Subject to the EU’s rules, restrictions, and trade agreements. An independent UK will be able to make its own treaties, its own rules, and its own way. (Well, we’ll have to… :)) We benefit from those trade agreements, the EU has far more bargaining power as a block than any individual country. Perhaps in some cases we might get a deal that suits us better, who knows, but they typically take years to negotiate. If we want to sell to the EU (our largest trade partner) there are EU regulations we will need to meet anyway, but we will no longer have a say in them or a veto. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/47 "2018-07-11T17:12:52Z")
So: 1. the UK loses guaranteed market access to its largest trading partner; 2. Still has to meet all the trade and market standards set by the EU in order to market British goods in the EU; 3. Loses its former power to influence those standards, which it had as one of the major economic powers in the EU; 4. Now has to negotiate bilateral trade deals with other countries, without the bargaining power that came from being part of the EU; 5. Loses European labour mobility for all British citizens. I’m not trying to be snarky here, but I still don’t see what benefit Britain is getting from leaving the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/48 "2018-07-11T19:03:07Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > We will still be restrained as the Government commits to aligning with EU regulations to ensure as smooth as possible trade with the EU; except now we will have no voice in the framing of those regulations. > > Hell, 95% of the time, we’re not ‘restrained’ at all, because the UK supported those regulations in the first place! > Y > We’re going to lose sovereignty. You can as good as guarantee many of those future ‘rules & regulations’ will be tilted against the UK. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/49 "2018-07-11T19:08:54Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > So: > > 1. the UK loses guaranteed market access to its largest trading partner; > > 2. Still has to meet all the trade and market standards set by the EU in order to market British goods in the EU; > > 3. Loses its former power to influence those standards, which it had as one of the major economic powers in the EU; > > 4. Now has to negotiate bilateral trade deals with other countries, without the bargaining power that came from being part of the EU; > > 5. Loses European labour mobility for all British citizens. > > I’m not trying to be snarky here, but I still don’t see what benefit Britain is getting from leaving the EU. and #6 is that EU citizens can’t freely migrate to the UK. The UK, with an aging population, needs workers for their NHS. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/50 "2018-07-11T19:14:53Z")
But that’s within the UK’s jurisdiction to permit, once they’re out of the EU. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/51 "2018-07-11T20:01:00Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > We will still be restrained Assuming the current proposals are put forward and accepted. I hope whoever replaces May is more sensible. And failing that, that Parliament rightly votes them down. May’s proposals are dreadful. A complete shambles. We’ll be better off with no deal whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/52 "2018-07-11T21:27:38Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > May’s proposals are dreadful. A complete shambles. We’ll be better off with no deal whatsoever. They are indeed dreadful. But no deal is even more dreadful. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2018, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/53 "2018-07-11T21:41:20Z")
For instance, if there is no deal, does that mean all the Brits who are working in the EU the day after the two years is up, are suddenly illegal immigrants, subject to immediate deportation? Do their employers have to fire them that day, to avoid committing an immigration offence? ---
**Author:** ![Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/22d042/32.png) [@Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2018, 8:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/54 "2018-07-12T08:27:12Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > But that’s within the UK’s jurisdiction to permit, once they’re out of the EU. Not really. It’s easier to move half way across a continent when you know that all your rights are fully protected by the highest court in the land. Being grudgingly accepted for the time being on the understanding that you can be deported on a whim is not so appealing for highly skilled Europeans. It works for some people from the third world, who can’t get a better offer elsewhere though. Would you build a new life in a foreign country knowing that when you stop being a nurse you will be forced to return ‘home’? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 7:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/55 "2018-07-13T07:14:31Z")
And unsurprisingly Trump shits all over his guests on his UK visit. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/56 "2018-07-13T07:32:36Z")
This is true but it’s part of a bigger plan. Trump has a well investigated preference for dealing with Boris. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/57 "2018-07-13T07:36:43Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > They are indeed dreadful. But no deal is even more dreadful. I disagree. The proposed deal - and May will have to make further concessions - puts us pretty much under the aegis of the EU but without any say. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 8:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/58 "2018-07-13T08:17:20Z")
Apparently Tory MPs are [being asked](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/13/conservative-mps-asked-withdraw-letters-demanding-vote-confidence/) to withdraw letters demanding a vote of confidence. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/59 "2018-07-13T13:03:31Z")
The big Brexit question is how to have all the benefits of being in the EU, but none of the disadvantages. The answer is that there is no way. Either you leave properly and take the economic hit, or you stick with all the EU rules and regulations without having any say in them - which is a worse situation than before. May’s approach has been to dither and waffle for as long as possible, in the hope that the problem will magically go away. That hasn’t worked out very well either. Personally, I think that the impact of a hard Brexit will be less than people fear. The EU keeps talking as though it won’t have any impact on EU countries if the UK leaves, but of course it will. If the EU doesn’t come to a reasonable arrangement, they will also take a significant economic hit. The EU simply can’t afford to lose easy access to the City banking and financial services, and relocating is easier said than done. So UK has good negotiating points if they are strong enough to use them. Unfortunately, the UK has no leader worthy of the name at the moment. May is a joke. Boris Johnson, Davis, Gove, etc. are not capable of serious leadership. Corbyn is ineffectual. Who does that leave? Theresa May will probably stay in office for some time, because there is no obvious person to replace her. \*Always keep a-hold of Nurse, For fear of finding something worse. \* 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 13, 2018, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581/60 "2018-07-13T13:25:48Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > And unsurprisingly Trump shits all over his guests on his UK visit… I assume you mean “hosts,” the poor bastards: [https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/13/politics/trump-uk-visit-theresa-may/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/13/politics/trump-uk-visit-theresa-may/index.html) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-can-may-last/817581.md?page=4)