# How long do you think the US government shutdown will last? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2019, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486 "2019-01-09T20:16:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/21 "2019-01-10T06:33:09Z")
People who are predicting periods of months or years should be aware how big a deal a shutdown is. (And, yes, the people who need to be made aware include Donald Trump.) Most shutdowns have lasted a day. The longest one in American history lasted twenty-six days and five of those were only a partial shutdown. The current shutdown has lasted twenty days. If the government stays shut down long enough, it will start being impossible to start the government up again. And a country without a government is a country with pretty serious problems. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/22 "2019-01-10T06:53:29Z")
A matter of days. I smell tipping point. Republican Senators are looking for the exits, and ! Susan Collins is concerned! Well, there you have it… ---
**Author:** ![The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f8ce5/32.png) [@The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Peyote_Coyote)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/23 "2019-01-10T07:11:43Z")
I’m aware it’s a big deal, Little Nemo, but we’re talking about the Orange Butt Boil, not a normal politician. Hell, we’re not even talking about a normal human being. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/24 "2019-01-10T13:57:26Z")
To understand how it will play out, one must understand how we got here: > [@](#): > > **Trump:** We’re gonna build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it! > **Democrats:** Yeah, sure, good luck with that… > **Trump:** Give me billions of taxpayer dollars to pay for it. > **Democrats:** No. Hey, wasn’t Mexico– > **Trump:** _I want a wall!_ > **Democrats:** What do we get? > **Trump:** Eff you, that’s what! > **Democrats:** Then no. > **Trump:** _I WANNA WALL!! GIMME A WALL!!!_ > **Democrats:** _(sigh)_ How about we give you the wall in exchange for legalizing DACA recipients? > **Trump:** _NO!_ > **Democrats:** Then no deal. > **Trump:** Then I’ll shut down the government and blame myself for it! > **Democrats:** Weird. And ill-advised. But you do you, I guess. > **Trump:** _THE SHUTDOWN IS YOUR FAULT NOW!_ > **Democrats:** WTF?? …er, never mind. Trying to understand how we got here can only lead to madness and despair. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/25 "2019-01-10T14:02:27Z")
I voted 1 week-1 month. As every day goes by, more and more checks will fail to issue - not just for pay - and the outrage - and costs - will be made clearer and clearer. Yesterday heard on the radio about the impact on FEMA efforts in CA districts recovering from the recent fires - districts that had strongly voted Trump. He might be too stupid to realize it, but every day more and more R congresscritters will see it as the losing game it is. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/26 "2019-01-10T14:08:32Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > To understand how it will play out, one must understand how we got here: > > …er, never mind. Trying to understand how we got here can only lead to madness and despair. It’s actually quite simple. Trump’s presidency is at stake. He either gets some concessions for the wall or he loses his base. Stick a fork in him, he’s done. Running in 2020 won’t be an option. His final two years will be as a caretaker until the election. Given that situation, Trump has nothing to lose by fighting to the bitter end. The only question is which direction does he take? Drag out the shutdown until the Republican leadership turn on him? Or trigger a Constitutional crisis by declaring a National Emergency which the Democrats will fight? That’s uncharted water and no one knows how that will end. This madness is over a tiny fraction of the US budget. 5 billion isn’t much compared to what this shutdown is costing 800,000 people. > **[How Is The Shutdown Affecting America? Let Us Count The Ways](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/09/683642605/how-is-the-shutdown-affecting-america-let-us-count-the-ways)** > > From TSA agents and Coast Guard personnel, to climate researchers and artists, the lives and work of many Americans are being complicated by the ongoing partial government shutdown. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/27 "2019-01-10T14:12:50Z")
Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days. That could happen, but I’m not expecting it. _Somebody_’s gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/28 "2019-01-10T14:31:48Z")
Steve MB, that is an excellent summary. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/29 "2019-01-10T15:02:16Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days. > > That could happen, but I’m not expecting it. > > _Somebody_’s gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months. Since the first poll option is “Less than 1 week,” and the poll was posted yesterday (more than a week after the shutdown began), I assumed the poll referred to how much longer the shutdown will last. I therefore picked “1 week to 1 month.” ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/30 "2019-01-10T15:04:35Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Today is the 20th day of the shutdown, so for it to last a month or less, it will have to be resolved in the next 11 days. > > That could happen, but I’m not expecting it. > > _Somebody_’s gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months. That’s my thinking, and how I voted. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/31 "2019-01-10T16:09:46Z")
I’m the optimist who voted for 1-2 years. Hopefully the unpaid feds will stop showing up so society can expand to fill the void with hard workers and smart entrepreneurs. There will be temporary disruptions, but that’s ok. It’s good in the long run for young people that government employment is not viewed as a stable paycheck for the slackers and risk-averse. I wish the unpaid workers well but can’t they take a hint already? You’re working for free? The taxpayers aren’t worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud. It’s like that guy from Office Space. If someone was not worried about making sure I get paid, I’d probably question the service aspect of civil service. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/32 "2019-01-10T16:18:30Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > I wish the unpaid workers well but can’t they take a hint already? You’re working for free? The taxpayers aren’t worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud. Yeah, who needs airport security? Fuck this TSA shit. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/33 "2019-01-10T16:26:29Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > It’s good in the long run …to let salmonella, e.coli, etc run rampant and week out the weak and inferior. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/34 "2019-01-10T17:07:19Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > I wish the unpaid workers well but can’t they take a hint already? You’re working for free? The taxpayers aren’t worried about supporting you, move on with your life, bud. Damn straight! [Every FBI agent ought to take his job and shove it](https://twitter.com/mattzap/status/1083406210458632192). Good call, **Will**! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/35 "2019-01-10T17:14:01Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > I’m the optimist who voted for 1-2 years. Hopefully the unpaid feds will stop showing up so society can expand to fill the void with hard workers and smart entrepreneurs. Yes, because I can’t see any possible downsides to private citizens stepping forward to enforce laws on their own initiative without any supervision. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/36 "2019-01-10T17:21:53Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > _Somebody_’s gonna crack before the 2-month mark. So I said 1 to 2 months. I am just hoping that the Democrats don’t go soft on us and cave because 800,000 federal workers are in dire straits. Better to let them suffer and win the big fight, rather than cave, to solve a transient one. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/37 "2019-01-10T17:48:41Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Yeah, who needs airport security? Fuck this TSA shit. 😉 Lol [![](https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2017/08/20170831_Private_Security.jpg) ](https://blogs-images.forbes.com/niallmccarthy/files/2017/08/20170831_Private_Security.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/38 "2019-01-10T17:50:51Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > …to let salmonella, e.coli, etc run rampant and week out the weak and inferior. No. There would be no mirage of food safety with govt out. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Damn straight! [Every FBI agent ought to take his job and shove it](https://twitter.com/mattzap/status/1083406210458632192). Good call, **Will**! :rolleyes: Lord willing. Let the private market sort it out. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Yes, because I can’t see any possible downsides to private citizens stepping forward to enforce laws on their own initiative without any supervision. I could if they tried to enforce the bogus laws the govt enforces. They won’t do that though. ---
**Author:** ![MeanJoe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/meanjoe/32/5693_2.png) [@MeanJoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MeanJoe)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/39 "2019-01-10T18:04:07Z")
For a master negotiator and businessman, he has certainly painted himself into a corner and given himself zero negotiation room. He now lives or dies over this wall and frankly that worries me. That said, I think as long as the D’s stay unified in opposition this will end badly for Trump. I read an article this morning where reports are Trump and his advisors really didn’t even consider the significant impact to a shutdown - food inspections, income tax returns, SNAP benefits, etc. and just how many millions of people were going to be hurt. They seem to have only considered the federal workers in aggregate who get furloughed and tried to either claim they supported the shutdown (absurd on its face) or that they were just lazy D’s working in cushy union jobs (also absurd). As it becomes more and more apparent that soon millions won’t be able to receive SNAP to feed their family, as income tax refunds don’t get sent hurting middle and lower class families who plan for that annual windfall of a return, and as the airport system grinds to a halt dramatically impacting business and vacation travel… Well, if Trump doesn’t fold the R’s in the Senate are going to have to have a Come To Jesus meeting and make a very hard choice. Save themselves or go down with the Wall which they all know is a useless boarder protection measure. I voted 1-2 months because I think it’ll take that long for the pain level to reach a threshold where Trump or the R’s will have to act to end this. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486/40 "2019-01-10T18:37:04Z")
> [@MrDibble](#): > > That’s my thinking, and how I voted. Yes, this is the correct interpretation of the question, how much longer will the shutdown last as of yesterday. As far as the gravity of the situation, I’m one of the ones who voted for multiple months. It’s not that I think things will be business as usual without the government. The problem is that Trump has no incentive to cooperate. The Republicans in the Senate and House do have some incentive to cooperate, but so far from their POV the benefits of staying with Trump outweigh the benefits of cooperating. I think it will take things getting worse, probably a whole lot worse, for enough of them to start changing their minds. It’s not enough for the usual suspects like Murkowski and Collins to consider cooperating. To get to 2/3 to override a Trump veto, 20 senators will need to change their minds. At this point I have such little regard for the decency of most of those Republican Senators that I think it’s going to take more than just some federal workers missing a check or two or for some poor people not getting their SNAP benefits to change their minds. It’s going to take things falling apart to a level that most Americans, including their constituents and not just people in blue states, to start feeling the effects. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-long-do-you-think-the-us-government-shutdown-will-last/827486.md?page=3)